mitchnick Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 RGEM was like a rock in 09/10....but that was a NINO hey, wait a minute, HM said this is behaving like a NINO sooooooo......? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:18 AM, mitchnick said: RGEM was like a rock in 09/10....but that was a NINO hey, wait a minute, HM said this is behaving like a NINO sooooooo......? I believe even the CRAS was on for one storm that season too? Maybe the "surprise" Jan. 30 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:18 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Can someone answer this. I asked earlier, maybe everyone was too busy, but typically in a winter system what pressure level does precip originate? Thanks somebody. I think it depends, heck clouds can form pretty high up in the atmosphere so I don't think there is one magic level. If you want snow, you do want the saturated level to reach a level where temp is below minus 8C, even better -10C. Maybe someone else can give you a better answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:22 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: I believe even the CRAS was on for one storm that season too? Maybe the "surprise" Jan. 30 event? yes, but RGEM was stellar for the big 3 we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:23 AM, mitchnick said: yes, but RGEM was stellar for the big 3 we had Damn near every model was stellar for those big 3 events. God I miss 2009-10! EDIT: I do seem to remember the RGEM was one of the first to indicate the Groundhog Day event we got that year...that quick 4-5" we got, which kind of got lost in the hype of two big ones a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:22 AM, usedtobe said: I think it depends, heck clouds can form pretty high up in the atmosphere so I don't think there is one magic level. If you want snow, you do want the saturated level to reach a level where temp is below minus 8C, even better -10C. Maybe someone else can give you a better answer. Thanks Wes. The reason I ask is I keep seeing people talk about the 700 or 750 levels. Heck, those are pretty high aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 IAD - Cobb 0z NAM output has 1.5 snow and .82 frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It would appear that RGEM is good for 5mm of snow... http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=na Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:22 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: I believe even the CRAS was on for one storm that season too? Maybe the "surprise" Jan. 30 event? Yes, CRAS nailed that one. Every model has its day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:26 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Thanks Wes. The reason I ask is I keep seeing people talk about the 700 or 750 levels. Heck, those are pretty high aren't they? Isn't there also something about having strong lift in the dendritic growth region (perhaps this is related)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 RAP is pretty far north. 1" rates in Pittsburgh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 hr. 18 on the gfs looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS is wetter as predicted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS looking pretty good..changeover a little after 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:33 AM, stormtracker said: GFS looking pretty good as good as we can ask for given what we know about this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:33 AM, stormtracker said: GFS looking pretty good Precip coming in sooner, or more of it, or both? Not getting the fast return on the latest panels as they come in (plus, flipping occasionally to ESPN to see how my 'Noles are doing, finally pulling away from Duke I see!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Sheesh, it been soon long since we trend into an event. Not sure how much is snow but the front wave looks solid for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:35 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: Precip coming in sooner, or more of it, or both? Not getting the fast return on the latest panels as they come in (plus, flipping occasionally to ESPN to see how my 'Noles are doing, finally pulling away from Duke I see!). More of it...not sure about timing...didn't review 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:35 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: Precip coming in sooner, or more of it, or both? Not getting the fast return on the latest panels as they come in (plus, flipping occasionally to ESPN to see how my 'Noles are doing, finally pulling away from Duke I see!). using DC as a frame of reference...precip starts 8-9am....just under 0.25" by 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 DCA hits freezing mark at 06z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:36 AM, Bob Chill said: Sheesh, it been soon long since we trend into an event. Not sure how much is snow but the front wave looks solid for most of us. it's doing exactly what we predicted after the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 are RAP and HRRR out to lunch? Everyone not in the mountains shoots above freezing in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:33 AM, stormtracker said: GFS looking pretty good..changeover a little after 18z? Probably around 19z yes when you toggle between 18z and 21z soundings at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:37 AM, snow. said: using DC as a frame of reference...precip starts 8-9am....just under 0.25" by 18z Think that's a bit earlier compared to earlier, at least from the bit I looked at and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:38 AM, TerpWeather said: are RAP and HRRR out to lunch? Everyone not in the mountains shoots above freezing in the morning RAP at the end of its range is not good for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 This is a really good (or bad) run for IAD-JYO guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:38 AM, snow. said: it's doing exactly what we predicted after the 18z run I'm paranoid. And rightfully so. I've wasted a lot of hours the last 2 years with this exercised. Trending away chaps me to no end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS is really wet in the early morning. Heavy FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:38 AM, TerpWeather said: are RAP and HRRR out to lunch? Everyone not in the mountains shoots above freezing in the morningWe may warm a bit before precip arrives depending on timing. Those models are pretty iffy overall outside the first few hours if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 3:37 AM, snow. said: using DC as a frame of reference...precip starts 8-9am....just under 0.25" by 18z I would say .3 or so is snow... we should sneak in another hour of snow after 18z IMO before sleet comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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