yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Spotsy and Stafford went to WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:41 AM, Ian said: Interesting the warning numbers aren't much different than the adv 1-2 and .2 V 1-3 and .25 I noticed that too. I guess 1 more inch of snow and another .05 of ice is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:41 AM, DCAlexandria said: How so? 1-3 in town. 2-4 burbsHe has 4-8 over the same area we have 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I am always on at least one line in a DT map. Sometimes 3 or even more lines converge at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:42 AM, Ian said: He has 4-8 over the same area we have 1-3 If I get 2-4 then I will dislike DT less...for one day. I think warning area vs advisory is mainly due to the fact that the zr period will last much longer and temps will be more than a degree or 2 colder. Makes sense even if the #'s are close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:41 AM, Ian said: Interesting the warning numbers aren't much different than the adv 1-2 and .2 V 1-3 and .25 I think warning criteria for ice is 0.25", so this barely cuts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I dont understand the around 0.25"... i think this is a broadbrush warning and then they will refine on the early morning package (3-4AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Anyway, QPF looks paltry on the 00z NAM at 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is colder than 18z run...shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:52 AM, snow. said: NAM is colder than 18z run...shocker Looks like flurries/--SN by 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:45 AM, Fozz said: I think warning criteria for ice is 0.25", so this barely cuts it.I know why on both counts (warning west etc) the diff between it and the advisory just seems marginal considering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Still a big difference in timing and precip location between short term models (RAP/HRRR) and NAM. Sterling must be sweating bullets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 DCA is already borderline snow/sleet at 18z (thanks 700-750mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:57 AM, yoda said: DCA is already borderline snow/sleet at 18z (thanks 700-750mb) it has fallen in line with other guidance after the goofy 18z run....drier and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The NAM is playing some sick joke every run 18z absolutely annihilated 0z run shaft I don't get this model whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 24 hr it gets some solid moisture advection in here and headed up everyone's way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Going to be a very icy evening.. NAM ramps up QPF...DCA in upper 20s at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I really feel like the models have had this storm locked in pretty well for 3-4 days already. Sure, little differences here and there, but nothing really dramatic. Hope this is a trend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Ice, ice baby according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 2:03 AM, yoda said: Going to be a very icy evening.. NAM ramps up QPF...DCA in upper 20s at 00z It adjusted back to reality while still maintaining its biases....it is a crippling event for the favored areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 1:59 AM, snow. said: it has fallen in line with other guidance after the goofy 18z run....drier and colder dont see it drier...just better:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 2:05 AM, snow. said: It adjusted back to reality while still maintaining its biases....it is a crippling event for the favored areas Looks to get some good ice even near the cities. Quite cold through 24HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 2:03 AM, WxUSAF said: I really feel like the models have had this storm locked in pretty well for 3-4 days already. Sure, little differences here and there, but nothing really dramatic. Hope this is a trend this winter. they kind of locked in like 10 days ago...very good overall performance by the globals...which is what tends to happen when we have a southern stream..they handle it way better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 27 hr image is pure porn for western and central va gosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 2:05 AM, Ji said: dont see it drier...just better:) It's a good run for you if you hate power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 On 12/8/2013 at 2:07 AM, snow. said: which is what tends to happen when we have a southern stream..they handle it way better My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Through 06z... which is when DCA/BWI hit 32... around 0.8 QPF...all frozen... then we sit around with either FZDZ or DZ after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Eh, a little dramatic on the language. Not like it's spitting out 1.5" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Damn..Nam super wet...relative to other runs. It's a pretty good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 we are all still wedged in at 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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