yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 total 24 hr QPF through 03z MON (10pm SUN) and its all frozen in the form of sleet and freezing rain -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This stuff is gonna shift. 50 mikes each way in the coming hours. It's a now cast time folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 .75" QPF @ DCA thru 33hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:11 PM, DCAlexandria said: This stuff is gonna shift. 50 mikes each way in the coming hours. It's a now cast time folks right now? now you say it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:10 PM, yoda said: total 24 hr QPF through 03z MON (10pm SUN) and its all frozen in the form of sleet and freezing rain -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=033%E2'> Yoda where are u again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:09 PM, UVVmet84 said: There is a ton of freezing rain and sleet it looks like on this run. It actually brings a lot of ice even to your town. yeah I noticed that on the NAM, but my worry is that the NAM is always kinda overdone on precip, but the way this systems been, its anyones guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:10 PM, Yeoman said: Looks torchy upstairs.. throw it out It has been all over the map upstairs, sometimes in completely nonsensical ways....Are we not in its wheelhouse yet...do we have to wait until tomorrow morning?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:10 PM, clskinsfan said: There is very little front end snow on this run. We don't go above at 850 until about 8 pm. We get about a 7 hr window of possible snow I suppose. Could be warm air up there somewhere. One thing is certain, that initial band of precip expanded north quite a bit with heavier totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:13 PM, snow. said: It has been all over the map upstairs, sometimes in completely nonsensical ways....Are we not in its wheelhouse yet...do we have to wait until tomorrow morning?... it's actually best on reanalysis situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:10 PM, Ian said: Biggest change seems to be for those way NW in first part. That area had been drying up now it's in the center of the game. Exactly right, but with these type of changes I think this is still a huge unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 0.35" by 18z on 12z run...0.08" by 18z on 18z run...what a model!....a short term star!.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:14 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: We don't go above at 850 until about 8 pm. We get about a 7 hr window of possible snow I suppose. Could be warm air up there somewhere. One thing is certain, that initial band of precip expanded north quite a bit with heavier totals. could be?...will be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:14 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: We don't go above at 850 until about 8 pm. We get about a 7 hr window of possible snow I suppose. Could be warm air up there somewhere. One thing is certain, that initial band of precip expanded north quite a bit with heavier totals. Yes the QPF increased but so did the upper air temps. I suppose a lot of it is sleet. Then ZR. Nasty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:16 PM, snow. said: 0.35" by 18z on 12z run...0.08" by 18z on 18z run...what a model!....a short term star!.... jokes aside, the front shot has looked better and more organized on the gfs/euro today. Not saying the nam isn't haywire but since we're kinda counting on the front shot bringing accum snow, my takeaway is the nam is another step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think the NAM is just having a really tough time gauging the strength of the cold air from the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 FYI FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-POWHATAN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...FARMVILLE...GOOCHLAND317 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* AREAS AFFECTED: WESTERN CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...MAINLY ACROSS LOUISA...GOOCHALND...CUMBERLAND AND FARMVILLE.* ACCUMULATIONS: A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. UP ONE INCH OF A SNOW AND SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE.* TIMING: A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGE TO ALL FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES: 28 TO 32 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:16 PM, snow. said: 0.35" by 18z on 12z run...0.08" by 18z on 18z run...what a model!....a short term star!.... lol well its the 18z run so I don't know if it being an off model run( the 18z) means anything this close to it, but youd think the NAM would be close to its "nailing it down" zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 we get heavy precip in the first round, it will keep the atmosphere cold enough for a decent period of snow, then sleet the chances of any model getting that right for any run-to-run consistency is low in the end, every model will have had a run where it got it right, but we won't know until this time tomorrow I doubt the models ever do reach a consensus like they normally do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:18 PM, Bob Chill said: jokes aside, the front shot has looked better and more organized on the gfs/euro today. Not saying the nam isn't haywire but since we're kinda counting on the front shot bringing accum snow, my takeaway is the nam is another step in the right direction. the euro is a rock...such graceful, subtle trends and changes.... i don't know how the NAM is a step in the right direction?...it doesn't thump us until after 18z when the mid levels are torching..it is a bad run for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:15 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly right, but with these type of changes I think this is still a huge unknown. Never count out N & W I guess. Derp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Maybe some sleet/snow mix at the onset down in C and western VA, then goes to ZR for a long period of time. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:16 PM, snow. said: could be?...will be.... Yeah I'm sure but the maps I'm looking at don't show that, so it's impossible to tell when the changeover will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:16 PM, snow. said: could be?...will be.... I'd ride the Euro and not jump off the cliff yet but the nam worries me because we usually get screwed in these kinds of situations and warm air often comes in aloft quicker than forecast by the models, also, dc climo may be on its side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:16 PM, snow. said: 0.35" by 18z on 12z run...0.08" by 18z on 18z run...what a model!....a short term star!.... the 12z run was kind of silly in the opposite direction. it had us snowing by sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:22 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah I'm sure but the maps I'm looking at don't show that, so it's impossible to tell when the changeover will occur. The 12z NAM has your 750mb temps at +3 by 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 8:23 PM, Ian said: the 12z run was kind of silly in the opposite direction. it had us snowing by sunrise. right...which is what the NAM does...swings wildly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Throwing out the 18Z NAM is easy to do. See? I just did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's RUC time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I am willing to bet that LWX will wait till seeing the early 00z runs before issuing WSW/WWA... no need to do it right now, esp since 18z NAM added in a silly wrinkle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 the NAM finally looked at the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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