CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The ALB sounding has a thin warm layer at 800mb which seemed to be a bit warmer than modeled at least on the 18z GFS. It's also showing full saturation on the 18z GFS forecast sounding and you can see Albany's radar is not impressive around it which means the GFS may be overestimating dynamic cooling there. I assume NAM is the same. Low level dry air killing Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:07 AM, MetHerb said: How is he colder that Norfolk? It's 32° there and he said he was 36°. In the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:03 AM, JJBASHB said: I'm surprised you don't have sleet mixing in yet? It has been a rain/sleet mix here for the last half hour. 35/32 Damn keep us updated, where is the damn FLAKE LINE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM makes more sense FWIW. The 6hr sounding from the 18z NAM for Albany is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:01 AM, eduggs said: Mixed precip all the way back to BGM. Must be some sneaky warm layer near 800mb. Surprised it hasn't mixed out in heavier echoes. What I see outside isn't pure sleet. Looks more like partially melted flakes that refroze in a colder layer. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Wet bulb down to 33 in Alb. Seems like lots of bright banding around. Precip break right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 0z ALB sounding .. sneaky warm layer around 750-790 mb. also you can see the dry air / cooler temps being advected from the NNW / NW below 800 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:11 AM, CT Rain said: ASOUT Beware the tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM is handling this better right now in terms of temps aloft at Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Everything seems exactly on track if you didn't use the GFS nonsense. Euro/Nam deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Mixing with sleet in Nashua. Temp is 39 in Tyngsborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 42.4, -RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is looking more favorable, though while usually pretty accurate, the Intellicast radar seems to be thinking snow when its more sleet on the SE edge. Interesting that Dendrite is still seeing light ice pellets. Also interesting how dry it is between ALB-BGM. That corridor was progged to get smoked, though still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Big temp and dew point drop here in Canton Ma. In the last 30 or so mins temps dropped from 43 to 40 degrees and Dew Point dropped from 41-37. I'm interested to see whats going on in Taunton right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:11 AM, ma blizzard said: 0z ALB sounding .. sneaky warm layer around 750-790 mb. also you can see the dry air / cooler temps being advected from the NNW / NW below 800 mb. alb sounding txt 12 7 13.png I wonder if they're even getting much in the way of nucleation with those cloud temps? That uber dry layer would explain the -RAPL obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:03 AM, CoastalWx said: It's really a latitudinal thing. More like MHT-ALB and then sinking south. Dont you want to hope kev stays up till 11pm hearing heavy sleet while hubb dave is pounding snow, that ashburrham poster could give mpm and wxmanmitch a run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Any chance for freezing rain in this or is going to be snow or sleet after changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 -RA with some IP in Andover. 39.2f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:18 AM, dendrite said: I wonder if they're even getting much in the way of nucleation with those cloud temps? That uber dry layer would explain the -RAPL obs. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sleet mixing in with rain in Pepperell, ma, northwest middlesex county for those who don't know the town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:18 AM, cpick79 said: Dont you want to hope kev stays up till 11pm hearing heavy sleet while hubb dave is pounding snow, that ashburrham poster could give mpm and wxmanmitch a run as well. It may be that a narrow area cashes in near RT 2. Maybe like 1-2 spot 3 on either side. Just thinking out loud. I think things seem to be progressing close to planned in SNE. That warm tongue may prolong sleet a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 36.8 now...slowly dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 people may tick down to 33-32F and still be sleeting. you can watch it wetbulb all night...it's what's happening at 5-9K feet that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:20 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: this I'm surprised that precip is making it to the ground with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:21 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: people may tick down to 33-32F and still be sleeting. you can watch it wetbulb all night...it's what's happening at 5-9K feet that matters. I don't care if it is snow, sleet or freezing rain...I just want frozen. I would be fine be at 32 and getting ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:21 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: people may tick down to 33-32F and still be sleeting. you can watch it wetbulb all night...it's what's happening at 5-9K feet that matters.YupThe look of the sleet isn't even good. Tiny ice with lots of water. Blech Mike Wankum thinks it is snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:22 AM, CoastalWx said: I'm surprised that precip is making it to the ground with that. i was actually wondering if maybe that was an error. but it's at DTX and BUF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:18 AM, dendrite said: I wonder if they're even getting much in the way of nucleation with those cloud temps? That uber dry layer would explain the -RAPL obs. Gonna need help from above with that layer under -10C for such a large vertical space. That might benefit areas more SE with deeper lift. It also will cool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 On 12/7/2013 at 1:21 AM, Tropopause_Fold said: people may tick down to 33-32F and still be sleeting. you can watch it wetbulb all night...it's what's happening at 5-9K feet that matters. Hmm, made a post several hours ago making a point similar to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Good news...transition to snow is now underway. Some snow is now mixing in with the sleet pellets. 32.7° F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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