mattie g Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Fully invested since yesterday, and I haven't wavered once. That should tell you something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Fully invested since yesterday, and I haven't wavered once. That should tell you something. We are toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM about to Mitchnick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 BOOM! Nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 still looks pretty impressive on "that model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Get your tickets now....you can join the bandwagon now, but not after midnight and not after waiting for any other models. This is a leap of faith yall. Mark my words....this one is real. Always bet on black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is like a 6hr thump...drops 0.5-0.7" of QPF all snow. I'd be bummed if I missed an event like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Start an obs thread. The tandem of my banter and Randy disco threads will lead us to glory. Mainly my banter threads tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 LWX made notable mention about this threat in the pm afd. I was a little surprised considering everything else that's going on but they think the threat is stormtrackable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 the rains of the last few days, are perfect examples of how this will play out except now we "should" have the cold air available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 LWX made notable mention about this threat in the pm afd. I was a little surprised considering everything else that's going on but they think the threat is stormtrackable too. that should really frustrate Ian now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM usually always likes to juice the hell out frontal boundary lows (terminology probably sucks), still liking the chance of a 1-3" type deal for DC/Balt on NW. But screw it, I'm on the train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 that should really frustrate Ian now Well, they did include their out... "REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH...MAINTAINS A SIMILAR PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z ECMWF SHUNTS THE PRECIP SOUTH AFTER THE RAIN ENDS ON MONDAY" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Get your tickets now....you can join the bandwagon now, but not after midnight and not after waiting for any other models. This is a leap of faith yall. Mark my words....this one is real. Always bet on black. Fully invested since yesterday, and I haven't wavered once. That should tell you something. I don't know s**t, but I know this one is happening. Somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 that should really frustrate Ian now you should read my forecasts yo As weird as it is these days to even have wintry weather in winter around here, we need to watch the potential for more by Tuesday. A fairly active moisture feed tries to keep on coming as cold air settles in to the region. That could be a recipe for at least some light snow (maybe rain) across the area. Under a scenario where that happens, highs are held in the 30s. Should it not come together and slide off to our east, highs closer to 40 probably. It’s perhaps 50/50 that we see even light precipitation for now, but there have been some hints at more than that. Confidence: Low-Medium http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/07/d-c-area-forecast-enjoy-today-because-sunday-brings-a-wintry-wallop/#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The cool thing is if this becomes legit we can crack down on the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 1-3" is more what I've thinking at this point as a reasonable aspiration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 This would be a 1000 reply thread last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 The cool thing is if this becomes legit we can crack down on the banter. There is no banter in thread. This is clearly serious, seriously talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 1-3" is more what I've thinking at this point as a reasonable aspiration. It's really hard not to favor the Euro. Cold is pressing. There is no real amplification to the flow. The NAM is terrible with winter events 24 hours out... meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 This would be a 1000 reply thread last winter *steps out of character* It's the NAM...on a lone mission. Fool me once...... If the GFS/Euro shows it, we can start getting serious and treating it as a legit thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I wud feel bad if it verified verbatim. Sne would miss out on back to back events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It's really hard not to favor the Euro. Cold is pressing. There is no real amplification to the flow. The NAM is terrible with winter events 24 hours out... meh. Oh, I don't disagree. That's why I think 1-3" is a reasonable ASPIRATION. If I had to forecast right now, I'd go with chance of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 *steps out of character* It's the NAM...on a lone mission. Fool me once...... If the GFS/Euro shows it, we can start getting serious and treating it as a legit thread GEFS is quite bullish on it actually. Has anybody seen the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I wud feel bad if it verified verbatim. Sne would miss out on back to back events. Usually mitchnick is pure weenie but there might be something to the moisture train of recent and that event. It's hard to totally write it off. The Americans, especially ones in Winchester and around DC, like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Oh, I don't disagree. That's why I think 1-3" is a reasonable ASPIRATION. If I had to forecast right now, I'd go with chance of light snow. Exactly. I don't think 1-3" is out of the question, in fact hasn't the GFS shown close to that (maybe a bit less)? I don't buy the NAM's fantasy amounts right now but the weenie in me hopes it's true. Certainly, an advisory-level snowfall is within the realm of possibility Tuesday. Not saying that's a given, just that it's got to be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Usually mitchnick is pure weenie but there might be something to the moisture train of recent and that event. It's hard to totally write it off. The Americans, especially ones in Winchester and around DC, like it. It's been showing off and on too much to ignore. Another wave is hardly unthinkable. East track would be favored but if you look at the h7 panels its interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Usually mitchnick is pure weenie but there might be something to the moisture train of recent and that event. It's hard to totally write it off. The Americans, especially ones in Winchester and around DC, like it. I'll have to watch it closer. The gefs members seem to like it. I'd like to see the Euro more for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Folks, take a second and let something sink in. We are tracking two legit events AT THE SAME TIME. One is on our doorstep and the other close behind. Temps are in the low 30s/upper 20s as I type this. Maybe winter is finally back after a multi-year hiatus? And Wes just said he needs to look closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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