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The Second Wave: Dec 10 (Model Discussion)


stormtracker

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that should really frustrate Ian now

Well, they did include their out...

"REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...ALONG

WITH A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH...MAINTAINS A SIMILAR PATTERN

ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES

THE AREA WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO

WATCH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z ECMWF SHUNTS THE PRECIP SOUTH

AFTER THE RAIN ENDS ON MONDAY"

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Get your tickets now....you can join the bandwagon now, but not after midnight and not after waiting for any other models.  This is a leap of faith yall.  Mark my words....this one is real.

 

Always bet on black.

Fully invested since yesterday, and I haven't wavered once.

That should tell you something.

I don't know s**t, but I know this one is happening.

Somewhere.

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that should really frustrate Ian now

you should read my forecasts yo

 

As weird as it is these days to even have wintry weather in winter around here, we need to watch the potential for more by Tuesday. A fairly active moisture feed tries to keep on coming as cold air settles in to the region. That could be a recipe for at least some light snow (maybe rain) across the area. Under a scenario where that happens, highs are held in the 30s. Should it not come together and slide off to our east, highs closer to 40 probably. It’s perhaps 50/50 that we see even light precipitation for now, but there have been some hints at more than that.  Confidence: Low-Medium

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/07/d-c-area-forecast-enjoy-today-because-sunday-brings-a-wintry-wallop/#comments

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1-3" is more what I've thinking at this point as a reasonable aspiration. 

It's really hard not to favor the Euro. Cold is pressing. There is no real amplification to the flow. The NAM is terrible with winter events 24 hours out... meh.

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It's really hard not to favor the Euro. Cold is pressing. There is no real amplification to the flow. The NAM is terrible with winter events 24 hours out... meh.

Oh, I don't disagree.  That's why I think 1-3" is a reasonable ASPIRATION.  If I had to forecast right now, I'd go with chance of light snow. 

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*steps out of character*  It's the NAM...on a lone mission.   Fool me once......

 

If the GFS/Euro shows it, we can start getting serious and treating it as a legit thread

GEFS is quite bullish on it actually.  Has anybody seen the Euro ensembles?

 

Baltimore,MD-ptype.png

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I wud feel bad if it verified verbatim. Sne would miss out on back to back events.

Usually mitchnick is pure weenie but there might be something to the moisture train of recent and that event. It's hard to totally write it off. The Americans, especially ones in Winchester and around DC, like it.

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Oh, I don't disagree.  That's why I think 1-3" is a reasonable ASPIRATION.  If I had to forecast right now, I'd go with chance of light snow. 

 

Exactly.  I don't think 1-3" is out of the question, in fact hasn't the GFS shown close to that (maybe a bit less)?  I don't buy the NAM's fantasy amounts right now but the weenie in me hopes it's true.  Certainly, an advisory-level snowfall is within the realm of possibility Tuesday.  Not saying that's a given, just that it's got to be on the table.

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Usually mitchnick is pure weenie but there might be something to the moisture train of recent and that event. It's hard to totally write it off. The Americans, especially ones in Winchester and around DC, like it.

It's been showing off and on too much to ignore. Another wave is hardly unthinkable. East track would be favored but if you look at the h7 panels its interesting.

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Usually mitchnick is pure weenie but there might be something to the moisture train of recent and that event. It's hard to totally write it off. The Americans, especially ones in Winchester and around DC, like it.

I'll have to watch it closer.  The gefs members  seem to like it.  I'd like to see the Euro more for it. 

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