mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Checking the high res precip maps it looks like a solid .3 - .4 though most of the area 95 and W. Precip maxes near higher terrain like parrs and wnwxluvr but it would definitely be more than a conversational event as is. The euro basically tells us to quit talking nonsense. We'll see if that improves this afternoon. I'll probably end up with more hope than snow, but I'm all in I will say too that the SE ridge is flexing its muscles last couple runs to a point where if it does develop, it may develop too much to the point of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Doesn't quite a bit more fall after 78he Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Doesn't quite a bit more fall after 78he Ian? Yeah, a bit more but that's the heaviest snow panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gotta love the SE ridge helping us. The wave train starting yesterday has been fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 i like the setup for this one better i think. more cold air in place. these 2nd/3rd waves are hit/miss, but i prefer dealing with cold air already firmly in place then the borderline material we'll have overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z NAM should be PD II coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Anything on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Anything on the euro? dr no is in the house let the nam hugging continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 dr no is in the house let the nam hugging continue! I'm hugging the NAM so close, it is now one with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 dr no is in the house let the nam hugging continue! You beat me to it, no precip and temps in the mid 30s at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 You beat me to it, no precip and temps in the mid 30s at 84 hrs. It's wrong...throw it out. Remember, DT says the Euro is unreliable under 84 hours....now how that makes sense, especially since it's great after 84 hours, is not important. The NAM is due for a win. Due should always be factored into science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's wrong...throw it out. Remember, DT says the Euro is unreliable under 84 hours....now how that makes sense, especially since it's great after 84 hours, is not important. The NAM is due for a win. Due should always be factored into science. and the redskins are due for a win, how do think that's gonna work out. Right now I'd lean towards the good Dr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Mitchstorn shmitchstorm. zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Why dosent the euro have this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Why dosent the euro have this?? It's a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Why dosent the euro have this?? Because it is not going to happen apparently. But it IS a fun thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The srefs show the Tues event to a degree. Actually quite a bit more robust than the previous run. The Euro may end up correct, but we saw earlier this year what happens when you have one model on its own with a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The srefs show the Tues event to a degree. Actually quite a bit more robust than the previous run. The Euro may end up correct, but we saw earlier this year what happens when you have one model on its own with a forecast. 24 hr qpf for this "event" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 The srefs show the Tues event to a degree. Actually quite a bit more robust than the previous run. The Euro may end up correct, but we saw earlier this year what happens when you have one model on its own with a forecast. Dude it's gonna happen. Srefs looking good. Just a matter of time before Wes is all in. Happy hour NAM is about to blow the doors off this place. Join me. Be bold. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Dude it's gonna happen. Srefs looking good. Just a matter of time before Wes is all in. Happy hour NAM is about to blow the doors off this place. Join me. Be bold. All in. Who needs the euro? We have the NAM on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Dude it's gonna happen. Srefs looking good. Just a matter of time before Wes is all in. Happy hour NAM is about to blow the doors off this place. Join me. Be bold. All in. I'm more in with you than I am with the Euro and its stand by my lonesome solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Tracker really on his game today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The NAM still likes the metro areas on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z GFS will allow a 1-2" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 You city folk look decent for Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 18z GFS will allow a 1-2" storm If not even a bit more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's coming I'm out until the euro shows it tonight and then I'm in. Another 72 hours of modelwatching on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Why isn't the euro showing this? Haven't looked at it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm out until the euro shows it tonight and then I'm in. Another 72 hours of modelwatching on tap Euro? Puhleeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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