PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The line of showers to the se is robbing lift and moisture. Dryslot on wv loop shows it perfectly. Uh oh The GFS had convective feedback problems and actually meant to show blues and purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Doable, but that is a tight squeeze at 800 and we will need heavy to overcome the ground (surface) temp. What bothered me about the soundings during the 12-18Z timeframe, including the latest RAP soundings as they were coming in, and the latest 00Z NAM before I left work, was that we really don't get a lot of vertical motion (and moisture for that matter) in that -12 to -18C layer -- or when we do (~15Z), it doesn't last very long according to the hourly RAP soundings. Obviously you want the uvv's and moisture to be robust for a longer period of time up there in order to maximize the dendritic growth potential and (thus) snowfall rates. So that could mean another round of "here we go again", where areas north of the DC metro area may have a better chance at better banded structure because they would have a better chance on getting that more favorable microphysics within the best UVV layer. This would be opposite of where most of the models are dropping the heaviest QPF (DC-Annapolis south). So it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Right now I'm just focusing on the fact that the probabilities for >1 inch are solidly above 70% and >2 over 50% for the greater DC-Baltimore metro areas. Above that (>2"), chances are going to hinge on where the best bands set up I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You're gonna give the noobs and downers a serious coronary. I was kinda serious. Just wait till the euro comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 For those arguing over the GFS qpf........ TUE 12Z 10-DEC -0.2 -2.6 1019 90 98 0.04 561 546TUE 18Z 10-DEC -1.0 -5.3 1017 94 99 0.42 552 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro looks quality.. max stripe (0.25"+) right where the warnings are at 18z. Already .1" on 12z back toward Loudoun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hi res looks like it's going to be even wetter and west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hi res looks like it's going to be even wetter and west of 95 It is solid for a global. Just more confidence in a dynamic solution. I just want to watch snow pile up without needing timelapse video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hi res looks like it's going to be even wetter and west of 95 It is solid for a global. Just more confidence in a dynamic solution. I just want to watch snow pile up without needing timelapse video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 May I have some 05z RAP tastiness please? Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It is solid for a global. Just more confidence in a dynamic solution. I just want to watch snow pile up without needing timelapse video. best run so far as far as max qpf in area.. at least that i've seen. DT went big and bold https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/last-call-for-snow-alcohol/617350464978882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hi res looks like it's going to be even wetter and west of 95 MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Atleast the 0z Euro gives me a little lovin' down this way. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 DT will be my favorite forecaster if that map verifies, his 4-8 is such a large area for this kind of mesoscale setup. Looks like the 0z RGEM somewhat and nothing like the GFS or NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 best run so far as far as max qpf in area.. at least that i've seen. ecmwf_tprecip_washdc_5.png DT went big and bold https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/last-call-for-snow-alcohol/617350464978882 Go big or go home, let's see if he can go 2 for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Some folks will look just at precip totals and freak out on the euro. I look at it and see support for widespread uniform distribution. That's a good signal for sure. I personally think the euro is a tenth or 2 too light overall. But I don't see how almost all of us city folks don't get s minimum 3-4 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And I think dca tops 4". Call me a weenie. It's what I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I must have the illness you talked about Bob, I am in Miami yet I am up at this time tracking the storm even though the only thing I am seeing tomorrow is string bikinis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And I think dca tops 4". Call me a weenie. It's what I'm seeing You must of lost your mind, for DCA to get 4" the rest of the area has to get 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Some folks will look just at precip totals and freak out on the euro. I look at it and see support for widespread uniform distribution. That's a good signal for sure. I personally think the euro is a tenth or 2 too light overall. But I don't see how almost all of us city folks don't get s minimum 3-4 at this point. Freak out about what? The western placement? It looks mighty fine to me. We should almost all end up happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Freak out about what? The western placement? It looks mighty fine to me. We should almost all end up happy. No pretty blue stripe. It's all about the colors. And the fish is gone too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And I think dca tops 4". Call me a weenie. It's what I'm seeing For the winter or this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 For the winter or this storm? Dca will be pushing 5" on the season tomorrow and we have entered a new normal. Bizarro world. And thundersnow and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Didn't HM like thunder snow for the western folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro is colder than GFS and brings some front end snow/sleet very close to metro areas before changing to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And I think dca tops 4". Call me a weenie. It's what I'm seeing What I'm seeing now is a blind weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What I'm seeing now is a blind weenie Better than a naked weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.