DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This thread's purpose is essentially done. Radar looks good, bands will be impressive. All models are around .5 for our area. Nice 3-5" snow area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This thread's purpose is essentially done. Radar looks good, bands will be impressive. All models are around .5 for our area. Nice 3-5" snow area wide. GFS is less, euro is less, SREFS are less....NAM is barely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Oh lord. Doc get me 60 cc of adrenaline to revive this weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS came back to earth with QPF GFS doesn't have the sharp cut off to the west and north that the NAM has some people are on the west and North edges of the GFS precip shield have huge disappointment risks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS came back to earth with QPF 0.45" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gotta love the hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS looks fine to me. These global models don't nail banded precip like this. 3-5 still seems like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Everyone needs to just chill out and look at the latest radar loop....its coming... its going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 0.45" for DC. It;s a bit less I think..0.35 - 0.4?....doesnt matter that much...I think 0.3 to 0.4" is a reasonable expectation....which will get most of us 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It;s a bit less I think..0.35 - 0.4?....doesnt matter that much...I think 0.3 to 0.4" is a reasonable expectation....which will get most of us 3-5" Very true, a lot of drama over what essentially is within the model noise -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Everyone needs to just chill out and look at the latest radar loop....its coming... its going to snow. come on Ralph, there's no drama in the stark reality of the situation we need drama! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It;s a bit less I think..0.35 - 0.4?....doesnt matter that much...I think 0.3 to 0.4" is a reasonable expectation....which will get most of us 3-5" Splitting hairs but I zoomed in as much as I could and .45 barely includes Arlington/Alexandria/SW & SE DC. I'm going all in with 4-6" ETA: Zoomed in screenshot over DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 NAM graph looks pretty cool for BWI looks like we get the band first and then it tails off http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 and my new favorite, the RGEM, which has had a similar 0Z run to its 18z with around .5", give or take for DCA/BWI, more qpf S&E Here's the precip totals from the 00z RGEM: (0.5 from DCA south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Splitting hairs but I zoomed in as much as I could and .45 barely includes Arlington/Alexandria/SW & SE DC. I'm going all in with 4-6" ETA: Zoomed in screenshot over DC Nice hole over Ji's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Bob Ryan @BobRyanCCM 1m Loving retirement dProg/dt HRRR other stuff believe S+ AM band DC metro drifts south & WSW expands south by 4AM. Wild 8-noon #snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 From Ryan Maue on Twitter. RAP from now till tomorrow at 4pm. I just threw up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 From Ryan Maue on Twitter. RAP from now till tomorrow at 4pm. I just threw up. the band out to our west moves east and you can't trust the RAP at 18 hrs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 From Ryan Maue on Twitter. RAP from now till tomorrow at 4pm. I just threw up. I remember the RAP with the last storm. Just because it shows me a soln I dont like as much as other models, does not mean I should throw it out. The HRRR and Rap called it last storm, only 12 hrs out. I am adjusting my expectations down some. This storm is not about me at all. I hope if it verifies, I hope Leesburg gets buried in fresh snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I remember the RAP with the last storm. Just because it shows me a soln I dont like as much as other models, does not mean I should throw it out. The HRRR and Rap called it last storm, only 12 hrs out. I am adjusting my expectations down some. Jeb, the RAP changes every hour....literally with each new run I never look at it , frankly, but others seem to use well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I remember the RAP with the last storm. Just because it shows me a soln I dont like as much as other models, does not mean I should throw it out. The HRRR and Rap called it last storm, only 12 hrs out. I am adjusting my expectations down some. This storm is not about me at all. I hope if it verifies, I hope Leesburg gets buried in fresh snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You know what they say about the RAP. toss it if it sucks Also, used to be called Calibrated Rapid Refresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I remember just a short time ago everyone was panicking that the RAP and HRRR showed the best precip from the last storm going into southern PA. That didn't really happen. I do think the best banding will be between DCA and PA line. Runs showing it south of DCA are likely to suddenly shift next cycle or just end up wrong. Usually when DCA itself gets heavy precip the line NW of the cities gets nuked. I expect hours and hours of SN+ obs from sparky and the Frederick crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 nice confluence of precip on us developing http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0659&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 RAP has no handle on the precip in Tennessee. Discard it until it gets a grip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Pretty sure I called midnight for the bust talk to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Pretty sure I called midnight for the bust talk to get going. It's Jeb. I don't think he really counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's Jeb. I don't think he really counts. Well the other RAP talk too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The line of showers to the se is robbing lift and moisture. Dryslot on wv loop shows it perfectly. Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 The line of showers to the se is robbing lift and moisture. Dryslot on wv loop shows it perfectly. Uh oh You're gonna give the noobs and downers a serious coronary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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