nflwxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I wonder if my surface temperatures will be an issue. I'm sitting at 36 now. ROA is at like 43. There is a lot of cool down needed between now and start of precip around 3 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Historic cold follows 24hrs later.... Not according to LWX. In about 4 hours they raised my high on Wed by 5 and my low by 8. My forecast from them has been swinging wildly all day. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm liking the outlook for this event. Looks like a good wide spread snowfall for all. I hope everyone gets a good taste of some banding in this one. All the models show excellent banding set up for this one with a great DGZ at 700mb for a good chunk of the region. I'll take a stab and say the best banding will set up in a SW to NE fashion running from just north of IAD up to Westminster over to NW side of beltway extending to PA into Southern PA. Best banding usually runs that line, so I'll take a stab at that area. That band will be moving too, so areas to the east could still get whacked as it progresses NE. I'm never usually one to make snow calls, but I'll take a stab at it. Criticism always welcome as it's just IMO NoVa - 3-8" (I can see highest in areas closest to Montgomery and PG) DC - 3-6" (I'm sure DCA will still report under that ) Baltimore - 3-6" (Locally lolli's to 8" on NW side of beltway especially) Frederick to Carroll - 3-8" (Carroll with higher side of prediction) Harford to Cecil - 3-8" (Watch banding near PA line) I'm in Millersville, so I'll throw my prediction out there - 3-7" (One of my professors whose a regular jinx on snowfall is gone. Let the games begin!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice thing is it's going to stick around for quite a while. Temps are great for most of the week. Snowpack should survive the Saturday storm storm before the next arctic blast late in the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That thin band of 0.5-0.55" QPF on the 00z NAM from NW VA/MD into NW suburbs of PHL is easy 6-8" with 12:1 to 15:1 ratios. Tough question, but based on the 500mb configuration do you like this band to form more NW or SE? Whats your hitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It could pan out to make most everyone happy except Amped Oh well, I still get close to 4 with higher ratios, and we'll still be ahead of Blizz on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We're both here... It's finals week You said it. I hate this time of year. Gets in the way of tracking weather. If only we did that as a class.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Spotty fog out right now, 32. I like the idea of the models giving us a sleetshower around dawn! You might have a point on the methlabs. They are about 7 miles south in Manassas Park/Yorkshire, but the heat released may get funneled north and create a microclimate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ehh, I'll probably make up any moisture deficit in ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Not according to LWX. In about 4 hours they raised my high on Wed by 5 and my low by 8. My forecast from them has been swinging wildly all day. Strange You mean according to the XXz GFS? those point and clicks have little if any human input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Shift it 30 miles south and I will let it live. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm in Millersville, so I'll throw my prediction out there - 3-7" (One of my professors whose a regular jinx on snowfall is gone. Let the games begin!!) Dr. Sikora is gone? Up with the OWLES project? He is notorious for creating an unexplainable snow-hole over SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's starting at like 4:30..set an alarmprobably won't get to me till about 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm hoping that since we have clear skies tonight, we will cool down nicely before clouds begin to move in. I'd hate to miss this just because our surface is too warm. Complete opposite of what happened yesterday with the freezing rain. good luck down there, you guys usually pull these marginal temp storms out in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Not according to LWX. In about 4 hours they raised my high on Wed by 5 and my low by 8. My forecast from them has been swinging wildly all day. Strange. Something whacky has been going on. A few hours ago they had my high temp on Wed. at 21 and now it's 27 which is more in line. Thursday should be the colder of the 2 days as far as highs go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Capture1.jpg and to think somebody just paid $1M for a painting just like that, you've missed your calling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's starting at like 4:30..set an alarm Done! It should be a fun day for many of us tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ehh, I'll probably make up any moisture deficit in ratios. We will still get some heavy rates in the morning. The last .20 of liquid can easily be 15 to 1 for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Per soundings on 0z NAM, we switch over at 14hrs on the NAM and it's looking heavy too. Doable, but that is a tight squeeze at 800 and we will need heavy to overcome the ground (surface) temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You mean according to the XXz GFS? those point and clicks have little if any human input They are matching the text forecasts though. You can read back through all of the forecasts from today. I've never seen anything like what has gone on today. My high for wed has gone from 36 to 25 to 30 in twelve hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Dr. Sikora is gone? Up with the OWLES project? He is notorious for creating an unexplainable snow-hole over SE PA. Yeah. I'm almost tempted to write my masters thesis outlining the "Sikora effect" One things for sure, it's going to be plenty cold for it to snow. I can see temps plummeting down to mid-20's in the intense banding. The ratios will be great. Further north I can see 12-15:1 ratios. South of Rt. 50, I can see 10-12:1. Overall, that moisture transport from Gulf has been vicious so far. I can see a greater plume of moisture then what the models are depicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 when did you move? better area for snow? though I doubt Manchester could be much worse with its elevation I moved over the summer and Pine Grove averages between 35 and 38" depending on the coop station you look at in the area, about the same as Manchester but I have the feeling we get there with more nickel and dime stuff and less big ticket events. Looking at past data it seems this area gets in on a lot of storms...NW edge of coastals...and does OK with some snow before mixing from inland runners...but we rarely jackpot. I moved for love not for snow, but we intend to relocate either back to MD next year or possible to the Poconos in PA depending on where my career takes me. I still love to follow your threads, way more active and knowledgeable then most of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Overall, that moisture transport from Gulf has been vicious so far. I can see a greater plume of moisture then what the models are depicting I agree 100%. Southern stream interaction with winter systems has a tendency to be UNDERdone on the models in terms of available moisture and eventual QPF reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I moved over the summer and Pine Grove averages between 35 and 38" depending on the coop station you look at in the area, about the same as Manchester but I have the feeling we get there with more nickel and dime stuff and less big ticket events. Looking at past data it seems this area gets in on a lot of storms...NW edge of coastals...and does OK with some snow before mixing from inland runners...but we rarely jackpot. I moved for love not for snow, but we intend to relocate either back to MD next year or possible to the Poconos in PA depending on where my career takes me. I still love to follow your threads, way more active and knowledgeable then most of the others. Good luck on your move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This is one of those rare times that I really don't care what the euro says. American guidance loves this pattern for whatever reason. Agree. The Euro's been playing catch up to the American models in this pattern and I think the American models will lead the way with tomorrow. But I do like to see the Euro to keep my expectations in check but I'll go with 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I moved over the summer and Pine Grove averages between 35 and 38" depending on the coop station you look at in the area, about the same as Manchester but I have the feeling we get there with more nickel and dime stuff and less big ticket events. Looking at past data it seems this area gets in on a lot of storms...NW edge of coastals...and does OK with some snow before mixing from inland runners...but we rarely jackpot. I moved for love not for snow, but we intend to relocate either back to MD next year or possible to the Poconos in PA depending on where my career takes me. I still love to follow your threads, way more active and knowledgeable then most of the others. Oh, ok. I checked a map and I'm familiar with where you are having driven to Wilkes Barre quite a few times over the years. Good luck with your career and the snow, and you should know that you're always welcome in our forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Agree. The Euro's been playing catch up to the American models in this pattern and I think the American models will lead the way with tomorrow. But I do like to see the Euro to keep my expectations in check but I'll go with 4-6". and my new favorite, the RGEM, which has had a similar 0Z run to its 18z with around .5", give or take for DCA/BWI, more qpf S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Good luck on your move. Oh, ok. I checked a map and I'm familiar with where you are having driven to Wilkes Barre quite a few times over the years. Good luck with your career and the snow, and you should know that you're always welcome in our forum! THanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS came back to earth with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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