DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice snowstorm on the NAM. Everyone calm down. HGR s/e should get a nice hit. Radar is a bit n/w of where the models have it in the first place, similar to our Sunday snow. Don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 [top]000 WWUS41 KLWX 100154 WSWLWX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 854 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 VAZ025-026-038-101000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0035.131210T0600Z-131210T1900Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0011.131210T0800Z-131210T1900Z/ AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG 854 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...A SNOW AND SLEET MIX WILL START BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM... CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK. SNOW WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. && $ DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-VAZ029-039-040-042-051>054-501- 502-101000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0035.131210T0800Z-131210T1900Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0011.131210T0800Z-131210T1900Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-PAGE-MADISON- RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON 854 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE DAWN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HEAVY SNOW. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Despite it always happening this way, folks NW of the cities are still fretting over being fringed when we all know there will be a mega band in the northern tier and someone SE of Wes will be getting screwed despite the model predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 congrats on the blue spot DCAhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_018_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=018&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ugh Cancel despite the .50 nam gives us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Fairfax County schools just closed for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Despite it always happening this way, folks NW of the cities are still fretting over being fringed when we all know there will be a mega band in the northern tier and someone SE of Wes will be getting screwed despite the model predictions. I'm not so sure this time though...but it's ok...I don't need to be the jackpot...just in the game is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I like how the northern folks are starting to sweat when they know they are going to get banded from hell. Its gonna end up farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Cancel despite the .50 nam gives us Shhh...we all have our act....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 When has a narrow precip max even been modeled within 10 mile accuracy. This is one will shift se for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Stop freaking out people You should know better. It's how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Shhh...we all have our act....right? Nam gives us .04 less than dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm not so sure this time though...but it's ok...I don't need to be the jackpot...just in the game is all Maybe this will be the ONE time sparky, yourself, and that lady from Frederick don't report hours of heavy snow while folks in Central VA report flurries and sleet showers with a model presentation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Interested to see what 4km NAM does. Meddler's map above suggest a band sets up from MRB to FDK and further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Cancel despite the .50 nam gives us The ugh was for that simulated radar that had your house under partly sunny skies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I like how the northern folks are starting to sweat when they know they are going to get banded from hell. Its gonna end up farther north. Yep, the model band is right over my house, how many times does that ever happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I like the nam.. I'm sure it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I like how the northern folks are starting to sweat when they know they are going to get banded from hell. Its gonna end up farther north. Went north this weekend. But ya never know. You want a surly teenager for a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Maybe this will be the ONE time sparky, yourself, and that lady from Frederick don't report hours of heavy snow while folks in Central VA report flurries and sleet showers with a model presentation like this. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Ice Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 LWX just went back to WSW for central MD. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 0.50 line cuts SW to NE through DC. A great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nam gives us .04 less than dca Storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Not a fan of this model at this range (I do however like it within 6 hours for picking up mesoscale features), but at 15 hours The HRRR shows 3 inches of snow falling in 1 hour in N VA @ 15 hours. While this won't obviously be a "MECS", its going to be a really, really fun storm. I love big thumping storms like this. I'd rather get 6 inches in 3 hours than 10 inches in 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 850mb temps are +5 right now...hope the cold air gets here in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Isnt the NWS a little early on the start time? I have a snow contractor I forecast for in Baltimore and told him a start time around 7am and heaviest 9-1...agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yep, the model band is right over my house, how many times does that ever happen. 2/2/96 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 LWX just went back to WSW for central MD. :-) We never had a Winter Storm Warning except for the last storm. We had a watch then an advisory now a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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