cpasi Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 have we got an idea of start and finish times for FX, Loudoun county areas..NOVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 4.1" DCA 6.1" IAD 5.8" BWI Highest report in region is a ridiculous 9.7" in eastern Carroll County Go enter it in the contest thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Radar looks really good down south. Game on. GFS kills this convection pretty fast. The NAM kept it going even offshore in Virginia. It appears to rob some of our lift on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You should be looking at the returns in LA, not GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You should be looking at the returns in LA, not GA. Actually I think the disturbance is back in the Midwest somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It is, but that os the flow of moisture out ahea of it coming from LA (Louisiana) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Amped's post was the connection with the ga/sc convection affecting the atmosphere downstream from our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Understood, but that convection is associated with the frontal boundary. The moisture in LA is in response to the wave of low pressure that will ride up along that boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And actually, i thought that radar was posted in the original post about the radar down south looking good. My mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Precip exploding nicely around Arkansas attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Precip exploding nicely around Arkansas attm. Indeed it is Ralph. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Precip exploding nicely around Arkansas attm. yes it is, very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 this may sound stupid and im sure ill get lynched for it, but im gonna go out on a limb and say that someones getting in excess of 10 inches tomorrow, with the way the mesoscale banding is, I just gotta feeling that this storm will over perform. and those in the banding will really see some big numbers, wouldn't be surprised to see someone in double digits( 10 or more). just my moronic opinion, ok now let me hear it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gfs develops the stuff in mississippi so its intetesting to be getting the flareup west of there. Curious if it means anything later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gfs develops the stuff in mississippi so its intetesting to be getting the flareup west of there. Curious if it means anything later. hmmm maybe the model is off a little to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks more like the nam sim radar quite honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 this may sound stupid and im sure ill get lynched for it, but im gonna go out on a limb and say that someones getting in excess of 10 inches tomorrow, with the way the mesoscale banding is, I just gotta feeling that this storm will over perform. and those in the banding will really see some big numbers, wouldn't be surprised to see someone in double digits( 10 or more). just my moronic opinion, ok now let me hear it... Not totally out of the realm of possibility in one or two locations (not like how 7" was "widespread" yesterday). It would be out west where ratios would be 12 or 15 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 this may sound stupid and im sure ill get lynched for it, but im gonna go out on a limb and say that someones getting in excess of 10 inches tomorrow, with the way the mesoscale banding is, I just gotta feeling that this storm will over perform. and those in the banding will really see some big numbers, wouldn't be surprised to see someone in double digits( 10 or more). just my moronic opinion, ok now let me hear it... No lynching for this, as blueapple says, it's within the realm of possibility albeit on the very high end. Earlier I said I believe someone's going to see 8" from this wherever the best banding sets up. The question is where. But most people will see the likes of 2-5" or maybe 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 No lynching for this, as blueapple says, it's within the realm of possibility albeit on the very high end. Earlier I said I believe someone's going to see 8" from this wherever the best banding sets up. The question is where. But most people will see the likes of 2-5" or maybe 3-6" I was thinking n a general 3-6, but someone gonna hit the jack pot where the high ratios are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 heres the most accurate forecast youll ever see..... my porediction is, youll see lots of snowflakes now back on topic..... I think after NWS see the 00z suite, ull see a lot of those WWA got to WSW, just my opinion .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Don't forget how short the window of best rates are. The precip window is 6-7 hours at best. To hit 10" you would need 2"/hr rates for 4 of them and still mod snow the other 2. That's asking an awful lot. If people start reporting thunder and lightening the there is a chance. Otherwise, I agree with terp, an 8" lolli is best case and still far from betting odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ive never seen a forecast( like mine in sparrows point md) from the NWS that says , snow heavy at times and talks about rates of 1-2 inches an our at times, yet.. im in a WWA? kinda weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Don't forget how short the window of best rates are. The precip window is 6-7 hours at best. To hit 10" you would need 2"/hr rates for 4 of them and still mod snow the other 2. That's asking an awful lot. If people start reporting thunder and lightening the there is a chance. Otherwise, I agree with terp, an 8" lolli is best case and still far from betting odds. ive heard reports this storm may go 8-9 hrs from about 4 am to 2-3 pm IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ive heard reports this storm may go 8-9 hrs from about 4 am to 2-3 pm IMBY It's probably done around 1. Let it happen man. 10 inches is a ton - bottom line is a nice storm is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's probably done around 1. Let it happen man. 10 inches is a ton - bottom line is a nice storm is on the way. yep I agree, like I said someone gonna hit jackpot but I think most of us see 3-6, 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Radar discussion should go in the ob and nowcast thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ive never seen a forecast( like mine in sparrows point md) from the NWS that says , snow heavy at times and talks about rates of 1-2 inches an our at times, yet.. im in a WWA? kinda weird Kind of a transplant - in S/C Jersey a 3 - 5" snowfall would bring a WSW (where there is a WWA for 2-4 ") - confused that a WWA w/ 3-5" does not support a WSW in Bel Air - MD, especially because of dynamics and morning commute (1-2" hr per hour)... Usually up North there is a higher threshold for a warning vs an advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 21z SREFS have the precip max south...DC metro is around 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 21z SREFS have the precip max south...DC metro is around 0.4" snow ratios around 11:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 21z SREFS have the precip max south...DC metro is around 0.4" So we should pay attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.