Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I just think they keep it as an advisory but issue a special weather statement like they do for an approaching thunderstorm or something make it a warning. Its our first real snowstorm since Jan 2011 since the one yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LOL Ji, CWG Winter Weather Forecast headed for a early bust. That's OK with them i'm sure though, they are mostly weenies too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LWX onset graphic is up... 4-5am for central DC metro. Hopefully that's early enough to get OPM to pull the trigger... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/onset/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z RGEM shows 0.6-0.65 QPF as snow for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This must have been a change in the last 2 years, since I got to H(now W)PC from the field. The last Winter Weather AWOC course still had the DC area (NoVa, central and eastern MD) with 4" in 12 hrs and 5" in 24 hrs as the warning criteria. Either way, the impact of 2-4 or 3-5" withing a <12 hour timeframe would be pretty significant, especially if it involves rush hour. LWX can certainly upgrade to a WSW should they see fit. One thing I did notice is that the wording in the WSW is 3-5", yet the storm total graphic, at least as of 4:00 pm, was still 2-4. It may just not be updated yet. All-in-all -- this has the makings of a pretty decent event, especially for us south of I-70 that missed out on that heavy snow band yesterday. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png I believe it changed this past year when Mt Holly split the counties around Philly into southern and northern sections. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I just think they keep it as an advisory but issue a special weather statement like they do for an approaching thunderstorm or something Maybe after 0Z NAM, if it stays the same look as before, they'll nudge the range to be 3-6" and throw up the warning before the news cycle. We've definitely had warnings issued at around 9-9:30 pm before (before the rest of the 0Z model runs come in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 SNE mets we're talking about how well the hrrr has done with this pattern. Maybe it picks out the banding better once we get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 This might be a situation where the models just keep on getting wetter(tho we're close to a max ceiling I would suspect). Seems like with every run (except the Euro), this has been happening. Maybe the closer we get in, the better they pick up on banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Remember when we had Heavy Snow Warnings? This would fit the criteria right ? Delete if my posts are getting off topic kind of :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Feeling greedy....hope I don't get fringed too badly. maybe we'll be banding buddies again this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Remember when we had Heavy Snow Warnings? This would fit the criteria right ? Delete if my posts are getting off topic kind of :/ I remember them. Rather have it called that than Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LOL Ji, CWG Winter Weather Forecast headed for a early bust. That's OK with them i'm sure though, they are mostly weenies too. its not over yet. We could have a jan/feb 1990. Never declare victory or loss until the last flake has been counted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This might be a situation where the models just keep on getting wetter(tho we're close to a max ceiling I would suspect). Seems like with every run (except the Euro), this has been happening. Maybe the closer we get in, the better they pick up on banding...I agree with this. Wouldnt put too much stock into the euro for this particular impulse....it is not verifying well in the current pattern. Not sure if its the severe -epo or what? Certainly didn't fare well yesterday...even our US models showed the banding to a degree. Betcha the gfs comes in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 My "guess" busted so bad for sunday.... couldnt be happier.... sorry to all those I challenged... I I think the cold air will make add some interesting dynamics to road conditions... I remember a similar set up to this a few years ago.. where there was a quick snow storm followed by a frontal passage.. I was on route 50 just after the bay bridge. It snowed maybe 2 inches in a hour or two and then it got real cold real fast. Route 50 was nearly impassable. almost zero traction.. serious flash freeze... several accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 lol---CWG comments DCA already at 0.6"....my call is in big jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Here comes the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z GFS is wetter than 18z NAM when you compare the 2 of them at 12 hrs... see N AL/S TN area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's still the wettest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z GFS is wetter than 18z NAM when you compare the 2 of them at 12 hrs... see N AL/S TN area Current radar looks good down south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Another crusher run from the GFS. Unusual to have it wetter than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 DCA already at 0.6"....my call is in big jeopardy maybe 4.6 by tomorrow? It will take like 22 events for DCA to get to normal so i dont think your forecast is in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's still the wettest model Even wetter than the 18z RGEM? That was 0.6 QPF snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Remember when we had Heavy Snow Warnings? This would fit the criteria right ? Delete if my posts are getting off topic kind of :/ Heavy Snow Warning & Snow Advisory no longer exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Holy crap, that's a 12 hr event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 if I was Wxsouth, i would upgrade the forecast to 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 man..this thing comes in like a bomb...leaves a path of destruction and leaves..basically a 7-8 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Heavy Snow Warning & Snow Advisory no longer exist.Hence why I said "remember when we had them." Wake up Eskimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS says don't worry about the band. The storm IS the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's still the wettest model you sure? I thought the NAM was like .7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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