mappy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For all practical purposes, I think they should've gone with 3-6" and a warning even if the higher end is a stretch, just so that the public would take it more seriously since the timing is atrocious. I don't want this to become Commuteageddon part II. My entire office is working from home tomorrow... none of us are even attempting to deal with the commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LWX talks about banding and poss. upgrades LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING...WHICH WILL CAUSE HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES. HOWEVER...CERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP IS STILL HIGH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED AND SNOWFALL RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP AND HOW STRONG THEY ARE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. I think that's a smart move on their part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think Marty Baxter's article put us at 11-1. I've only done numbers for DCA which are probably lower than many spots.. plus doing ratios off climo stats is tricky as you don't know which storms flipped etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LWX talks about banding and poss. upgrades LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING...WHICH WILL CAUSE HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES. HOWEVER...CERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP IS STILL HIGH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED AND SNOWFALL RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP AND HOW STRONG THEY ARE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. They're watching us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LWX talks about banding and poss. upgrades LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING...WHICH WILL CAUSE HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES. HOWEVER...CERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP IS STILL HIGH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED AND SNOWFALL RATES AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP AND HOW STRONG THEY ARE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. The ML frontogenesis in this is very intense. Wherever it sets up is probably going to be in for a surprise compared to the forecast...its just the nature of these type of banding profiles. Figuring out exactly where it sets up can be the hard part though. Someone in here will be reporting heavy snow for several hours though I think...whether its down in C VA or DC or the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I wanna get banded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I love December storms, when we barely even need to mention the evil sun angle at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 4k NAM.. out around 1, some snow showers till about 2. hires_ref_washdc_19.png hires_snow_acc_washdc_8.png At least now we have the 4KM NAM on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The ML frontogenesis in this is very intense. Wherever it sets up is probably going to be in for a surprise compared to the forecast...its just the nature of these type of banding profiles. Figuring out exactly where it sets up can be the hard part though. Someone in here will be reporting heavy snow for several hours though I think...whether its down in C VA or DC or the Delmarva. What do you think would be the max potential snow if you got under a band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NWS zones have JYO at +6F for Wednesday night minimum now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Didn't see this posted earlier, but the WWAs have been expanded much further south into C VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Mount Holly went with a WSW for Cecil Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NWS zones have JYO at +6F for Wednesday night minimum now... Cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Mount Holly went with a WSW for Cecil Co. For some reason their warning criteria is lower (4" there vs 5" in most of LWX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For some reason their warning criteria is lower (4" there vs 5" in most of LWX) I thought it was 4" for LWX, but I guess not. Considering how 1" can disrupt travel around here, I like that criteria better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RGEM when it counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought it was 4" for LWX, but I guess not. Considering how 1" can disrupt travel around here, I like that criteria better. Nope, it's 5", which is why our 3-5" advisory isn't a warning. Personally I think it should be 4" from I-95 east and 5" in the colder burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RGEM has improved since 12z run trend baby....trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What do you think would be the max potential snow if you got under a band? This one seems to be a quick mover, with about 6-7 hours of snow. Let's say it takes a couple hours to get that first inch as snowfall ramps up, and then a band sets up for about 3 hours before it moves out, with another inch from 2 hours of light snow, someone could see up to 8 inches. Of course that's assuming there's no sleet mixing in, sfc temps are cold enough that it sticks almost immediately, and get enough support from upper levels to hold the band together, etc - that's a lot of IFs. But I really don't think 8" is that much of a stretch if all these IFs come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Feeling greedy....hope I don't get fringed too badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought it was 4" for LWX, but I guess not. Considering how 1" can disrupt travel around here, I like that criteria better. 4 for S PHL, 5 for LWX and 6 for CTP and N PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Speaking of SFC temps, we are holding in the mid-30s across most of NoVA when they were forecast to hit low 40s. That is holding some of the snow/sleet cover for tonight. That should help with the onset of precip being snow and sticking quickly, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nope, it's 5", which is why our 3-5" advisory isn't a warning. Personally I think it should be 4" from I-95 east and 5" in the colder burbs. It was 4" and went to 5". I think it changed about 10 years ago, but I'm not sure. I have lost my concept of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Back in the day a WSW used to be 4 for LWX right? Philly always has weird criteria. 100 degree heat index is an Excessive Heat Warning? Really? Oh sorry wrong season :-o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nope, it's 5", which is why our 3-5" advisory isn't a warning. Personally I think it should be 4" from I-95 east and 5" in the colder burbs. This must have been a change in the last 2 years, since I got to H(now W)PC from the field. The last Winter Weather AWOC course still had the DC area (NoVa, central and eastern MD) with 4" in 12 hrs and 5" in 24 hrs as the warning criteria. Either way, the impact of 2-4 or 3-5" withing a <12 hour timeframe would be pretty significant, especially if it involves rush hour. LWX can certainly upgrade to a WSW should they see fit. One thing I did notice is that the wording in the WSW is 3-5", yet the storm total graphic, at least as of 4:00 pm, was still 2-4. It may just not be updated yet. All-in-all -- this has the makings of a pretty decent event, especially for us south of I-70 that missed out on that heavy snow band yesterday. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 since this area sucks at snow, i think 4 inches should be a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I also think because the 4-5 inches is coming in 6 hours, it should be a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I just think they keep it as an advisory but issue a special weather statement like they do for an approaching thunderstorm or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 lol---CWG comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Talk about timing and rush hour impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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