usedtobe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks to me like its out of here between 2-3 That's what it looked like to me.....my guess is 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 to be fair you aren't in this region either fairly certain that was a dig at Phin who called out Mac for posting in here yesterday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Am i reading that right? NAM shows .5 in 3 hours? 6 hours. .5 with 13 to 1 is 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Are the LWX snow maps computer generated or man made? What makes them so poor? they are based off the zones i think. though they just tweeted they are forecasting 3-5" and the new map says 2-4" everywhere. oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Shows about 6-7 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 qpf trend is looking good despite my earlier misreading of the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hour 21 you know it will shift north. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 6 hours. .5 with 13 to 1 is 7". Ah, ok. 13:1? With this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 qpf trend is looking good despite my earlier misreading of the sref That it is mitch. We all make mistakes, no worries. Except Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ah, ok. 13:1? With this? I would think with dynamics, cold column, and fat fluffy flakes that 12:1 is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Talking ratios before an event is about as fun as calling all liquid as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 you know it will shift north. sorry. Yeah I know, I don't want northern Maryland to miss out on the most snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Talking ratios before an event is about as fun as calling all liquid as ice. Don't question the death band. It will get mad and move over rockville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Don't question the death band. It will get mad and move over rockville.Here it's always hard to get past 10:1 especially if the sfc is not super cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Here it's always hard to get past 10:1 especially if the sfc is not super cold. I think 11:1 is climo..according to Wes...I could see similar with this system assuming all snow...maybe even a tad higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Don't question the death band. It will get mad and move over rockville. Wherever this band sets up tomorrow, can we not use "deathband"? How about rockband? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think with a favorable isothermal column, UL temps look solid for good snow production in the growth zone that could bump ratios up to the 12:1 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wherever this band sets up tomorrow, can we not use "deathband"? How about rockband? Perfect idea! Sounds like a good day to break out the guitar and drums for the PS3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm having a hard time deciding whether I would have posted an advisory or a warning for DC area if I were LWX. On one hand, it's good in many circumstances to be conservative and can always upgrade later if models/data warrant. On the other hand, the snow is expected to begin during the am rush, and if people think it's "only an advisory" they could downplay it and go out - that'd really gum things up under a heavy snow band. It's not just about accums, it's also about the rates, and it looks as if someone could see up to 2"/hr and if that happens during rush hour, that could be pretty bad. This looks to me as a high-end advisory event, and wherever the heaviest band sets up, should be upgraded to warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think 11:1 is climo..according to Wes...I could see similar with this system assuming all snow...maybe even a tad higher It might be. I have all the snowstorms with ratios on a sheet at home. For whatever reason the conversation always strikes me as unnecessary but maybe I'm a grumpy old man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Talking ratios before an event is about as fun as calling all liquid as ice. I mean, it is weather after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm having a hard time deciding whether I would have posted an advisory or a warning for DC area if I were LWX. On one hand, it's good in many circumstances to be conservative and can always upgrade later if models/data warrant. On the other hand, the snow is expected to begin during the am rush, and if people think it's "only an advisory" they could downplay it and go out - that'd really gum things up under a heavy snow band. It's not just about accums, it's also about the rates, and it looks as if someone could see up to 2"/hr and if that happens during rush hour, that could be pretty bad. This looks to me as a high-end advisory event, and wherever the heaviest band sets up, should be upgraded to warning. Def agree and good post.... I could see LWX going WSW tomorrow morning in their 330am update... but by then some people don't check and assume... going to be an interesting next 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah I know, I don't want northern Maryland to miss out on the most snow... Thanks! Me either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think 11:1 is climo..according to Wes...I could see similar with this system assuming all snow...maybe even a tad higher I shouldn't have said likely. A fair possibility is better wording. Rates will help. It's a good bit of precip in a short window verbatim. I might be wrong but lower rates and lulls cut down on totals. Compaction, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It might be. I have all the snowstorms with ratios on a sheet at home. For whatever reason the conversation always strikes me as unnecessary but maybe I'm a grumpy old man. I think we had about 8:1 yesterday before we flipped here in DC yeah...probably 7 or 8....I had 7:1 in 1/26/2011 so maybe 10:1 is reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 4k NAM.. out around 1, some snow showers till about 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It might be. I have all the snowstorms with ratios on a sheet at home. For whatever reason the conversation always strikes me as unnecessary but maybe I'm a grumpy old man. I think Marty Baxter's article put us at 11-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm having a hard time deciding whether I would have posted an advisory or a warning for DC area if I were LWX. On one hand, it's good in many circumstances to be conservative and can always upgrade later if models/data warrant. On the other hand, the snow is expected to begin during the am rush, and if people think it's "only an advisory" they could downplay it and go out - that'd really gum things up under a heavy snow band. It's not just about accums, it's also about the rates, and it looks as if someone could see up to 2"/hr and if that happens during rush hour, that could be pretty bad. This looks to me as a high-end advisory event, and wherever the heaviest band sets up, should be upgraded to warning. For all practical purposes, I think they should've gone with 3-6" and a warning even if the higher end is a stretch, just so that the public would take it more seriously since the timing is atrocious. I don't want this to become Commuteageddon part II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 LWX talks about banding and poss. upgrades LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING...WHICHWILL CAUSE HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES. HOWEVER...CERTAINTY IN EXACTLYWHERE THAT BAND SETS UP IS STILL HIGH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYIS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAYAFTERNOON. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED AND SNOWFALLRATES AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE DANGEROUSTRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AWARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THEHEAVIER BANDS SET UP AND HOW STRONG THEY ARE. WILL CONTINUE TOMONITOR DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS.PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE AFTERNOONHOURS TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Watch to Advisory to Warning seems right to me. Either way, just give the area a nice uniform snowfall and all will be forgiven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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