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The Second Wave: Dec 10 (Model Discussion)


stormtracker

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The GFS goes a bit south with the icy part of our weekend storm, and because of that, the mitchnick storm is pulled a bit to the east. Orientation of the QPF shield is more E-W oriented compared to the NAM at 84 (using only for comparison purposes). However, hr 90 is a nice little snow for us. I think this can get a bit better, as the GFS has supportive temperature profiles as well. 

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The GFS goes a bit south with the icy part of our weekend storm, and because of that, the mitchnick storm is pulled a bit to the east. Orientation of the QPF shield is more E-W oriented compared to the NAM at 84 (using only for comparison purposes). However, hr 90 is a nice little snow for us. I think this can get a bit better, as the GFS has supportive temperature profiles as well. 

 

Hr 90 is decent enough for an inch or 2

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Looks like a couple of the 12z ens members now. I havent dug in yet but looks like some weak ul energy moving in from the west enhances the precip shield on the boundary. This helps us be on the winning side of heavier precip in the cold zone.

It'd be funny if this one is bigger than Sunday.

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It'd be funny if this one is bigger than Sunday.

Sometimes the sneaky ones end up champs. Wouldn't be the first time. 3 years ago we wouldnt even be talking about things like this so far in advance. We've changed. It has been a period of interest though. So in this case is hadn't exactly snuck up on us.

Things kinda feel like a 1/10th scale model of 09-10. The wd index is surrus bidnizzy

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Sometimes the sneaky ones end up champs. Wouldn't be the first time. 3 years ago we wouldnt even be talking about things like this so far in advance. We've changed. It has been a period of interest though. So in this case is hadn't exactly snuck up on us.

Things kinda feel like a 1/10th scale model of 09-10. The wd index is surrus bidnizzy

 

3 out of the last 4 runs have it.  I'm partly all in now

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3 out of the last 4 runs have it. I'm partly all in now

F it. I'm all in on everything including flurries. 3 year loozers can't be choozers.

For the first time in history I love the se ridge. It's a 3 layer cake on the same boundary. First wet as F but getting colder. Then sn, ip, zr, and verglas and neige ans stuff. Final layer of cold smoke powder and an arctic blast. What a gd great week ahead.

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F it. I'm all in on everything including flurries. 3 year loozers can't be choozers.

For the first time in history I love the se ridge. It's a 3 layer cake on the same boundary. First wet as F but getting colder. Then sn, ip, zr, and verglas and neige ans stuff. Final layer of cold smoke powder and an arctic blast. What a gd great week ahead.

the pv over Hudson's Bay doesn't hurt either

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=500_vort_ht&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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No doubt. It's a near perfect setup to get snow out of a pattern like this. This is far from a big snow pattern. The fact that the arctic boundary is bouncing into a stubborn se ridge is the only reason we're having fun here. If we had a -nao it would be snowing in Tallahassee.

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No doubt. It's a near perfect setup to get snow out of a pattern like this. This is far from a big snow pattern. The fact that the arctic boundary is bouncing into a stubborn se ridge is the only reason we're having fun here. If we had a -nao it would be snowing in Tallahassee.

Yep. I've seen posts bashing the ridge the last couple of days but without it we are looking at pc Sunday.

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i knew that storm would trend colder in time but damn that was fast....already showing wintry precip next weekend

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