HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 more Facebook Mets(this is for next weekend though) The weekend event is a good example where the NAO is actually needed, despite all the +NAO snow events we are getting lately. If you are going to amplify a wave like that west of the Appalachians, you better have a -NAO in-place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 yet we all know the best banding will happen to our west ...do you agree, or think this one is a DC east event in terms of max QPF? I remember you in feb 2006, when models showed a s/e event and you were insistent that the best banding would set up nw of DC and you were right.. ha.. just answered your question below without seeing this post. Thanks for the Feb 06 memory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 We haven't seen the Bread-O-Meter from Topper in a few years... Topper Shutt @Toppersweather 5m Here we go again. Winter Storm Watch for Metro this time for snow. I may have to break out the Bread-O-Meter. @wusa9 pic.twitter.com/TsNpdBgMCQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 3-6 inches....if we get 3, the forecast verifies 3" would be great...should still be 100% covered from yesterday's event when it starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 huh? Gwen said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gwen said Well take it to the bank. She's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Facebook mets I use my own profile page to discuss storm potentials and my friends get a kick out of it. I'm just wondering if this would be a better option for some of these other "Met" pages? I think one big issue is false authenticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I use my own profile page to discuss storm potentials and my friends get a kick out of it. I'm just wondering if this would be a better option for some of these other "Met" pages? I think one big issue is false authenticity. Send them all to Ji's page, he is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like LWX increased the width of the 4-6" area on their current snow map.. Now includes DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Dt posted the euro snow map ....I know Matt....I was actually very pleased at what it showed, I was under the impression NW was high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The good news is we could miss 1,050 days without a 2" snow at DCA just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The good news is we could miss 1,050 days without a 2" snow at DCA just barely. All good things must come to an end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Dt posted the euro snow map ....I know Matt....I was actually very pleased at what it showed I was pleasantly surprised by it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I was pleasantly surprised by it too. His own map doesn't even seem to agree with the Euro unless all 2-4 and 3-6 areas see exactly 3", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The better ratio component / 700-500mb fronto band should still favor N/W areas seeing the max snow, even though modeled QPF is highest SE or where averaging between two areas is occurring. Maybe Wes can elaborate there. Zoomed in at 12z tomorrow on GFS. Despite the duration and alignment here, this is a nice combo of factors from N VA into S-C PA, including DC. You can see 650mb frontogen in the light brown/orange contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1496291_746870935342964_1763768201_o.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I was pleasantly surprised by it too. The 0z euro was more snow....not to say this run is much different...but it isn't an improvement over last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Seems the EURO is still our low end in town (3") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You can easily see where the best banding will set up on the euro snow map. Just in case you cant see it, I made it easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 are people really taking weatherbell snow maps verbatim?...what ratios do their maps use?....do they take into account the whole thermal profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You can easily see where the best banding will set up on the euro snow map. Just in case you cant see it, I made it easier eurosnow.JPG It was showing the best banding last night over Ji's house...no reason to think it has changed much so your map seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Zoomed in at 12z tomorrow on GFS. Despite the duration and alignment here, this is a nice combo of factors from N VA into S-C PA, including DC. You can see 650mb frontogen in the light brown/orange contours. Trouble with the frontogenesis idea is that those regions of frontogenesis are sloped and using a plane view of them can give different answers if you use different pressure levels. For example, today you get west of the city with the 650 level and over the city with 750. I've never had much success guessing where one might set up. Usually, it's a little north of where the raw guidance would put it but at least once last year, I think it wasn't. If i had to guess, I'd place it north and west based on climo but I could see it forming anywhere. The zone of good F forcing will be different on the Euro versus the NAM or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think it looks pretty good.Hey you guys honestly think the eastern shore will get that much? I forecasted up to an inch Salisbury on south and 1-3 north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 are people really taking weatherbell snow maps verbatim?...what ratios do their maps use?....do they take into account the whole thermal profile? No....my point was that I thought any snow map based on the euro description was gonna show NW high and dry...was surprised to see its qpf distribution was all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Here was a nice image from the NAM at 13z of 800-600 averaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 are people really taking weatherbell snow maps verbatim?...what ratios do their maps use?....do they take into account the whole thermal profile? I think we had tried to get to the bottom of this a couple of days ago -- the raw ECMWF output has a categorical yes/no for a series of p-types -- if for a given timestep, if snow=yes, he's sums up the liquid equivalent and applies a 10:1 ratio -- this causes some issues because just because the categorical p-type is snow at say 18z doesn't mean that it was snow for the entire 6-hour time step for the output -- that's simply how to end up getting more snow even if the thermal profiles don't support it -- it's either sloppiness on Maue's part or he's limited by temporal sampling of the ECMWF output, which in that case renders most ECMWF snow maps worthless when you have thermal profiles that may not support snow over the entire 6-hour binning of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Here was a nice image from the NAM at 13z of 800-600 averaged. Wouldn't that scenario reduce totals for the D.C. metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Trouble with the frontogenesis idea is that those regions of frontogenesis are sloped and using a plane view of them can give different answers if you use different pressure levels. For example, today you get west of the city with the 650 level and over the city with 750. I've never had much success guessing where one might set up. Usually, it's a little north of where the raw guidance would put it but at least once last year, I think it wasn't. If i had to guess, I'd place it north and west based on climo but I could see it forming anywhere. The zone of good F forcing will be different on the Euro versus the NAM or GFS. Yes, the entire process is 3d/sloped which means 1 layer puts subsidence around it at a certain height etc. I am in agreement here that the NW areas see the better snow band, despite the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You can easily see where the best banding will set up on the euro snow map. Just in case you cant see it, I made it easier eurosnow.JPG Violently agree. Although I won't be around to see it are people really taking weatherbell snow maps verbatim?...what ratios do their maps use?....do they take into account the whole thermal profile? I still wouldn't take it verbatim, but in this type of scenario, they should do quite a bit better than they would in something like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hey you guys honestly think the eastern shore will get that much? I forecasted up to an inch Salisbury on south and 1-3 north of there. To be honest, I never looked east of the bay. I'm CWG area centric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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