snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro has a nice enhanced area southeast .. .3-.4 in 6 hrs. Get that to shift to FDK and we're in business. problem is 850 temps don't go below 0 until 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's definitely in a different camp than the nam (shocker) but not as good for us as the gfs. The gfs is the middle ground here. 2/4 - 3/5 seems ok for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 A couple of links to not forget about: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ That second link, I usually zoom in on "E US" and pick the GFS to see its frontogen plots etc. They show the nice "frontogen slope" I was outlining earlier. It shows you which layer is responsible for what band, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The heaviest band is just south of me. How come I think it either stays there or jumps to north of Bob Chill? Deja vu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The heaviest band is just south of me. How come I think it either stays there or jumps to north of Bob Chill? euro is playing catch up but at least it gives us some caution about going to aggressive...I'd probably still go 2-4" for DC...the warmness on the euro worries me a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's more organized on the nw side than last night and a step towards other guidance. But definitely not as agressive N-W. It keys on the southern precip maxima much more than GFS/NAM. I think it looks more like the rgem from 12z but I didn't look that hard. 12z RGEM meteograms show 12mm snow from what I see http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 A couple of links to not forget about: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/mddoutput/ That second link, I usually zoom in on "E US" and pick the GFS to see its frontogen plots etc. They show the nice "frontogen slope" I was outlining earlier. It shows you which layer is responsible for what band, etc. Thanks for the links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 problem is 850 temps don't go below 0 until 12z... yeah it's not really collocated right for a thump but more that there is some moisture in there which might float north if we hope hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The heaviest band is just south of me. How come I think it either stays there or jumps to north of Bob Chill? Repeat patterns??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 problem is 850 temps don't go below 0 until 12z... Weird... the map I have has DCA/BWI/IAD at -2 at 12z tomorrow for 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It is warmer matt but I'm not too worried. It's on its own there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Sun breaking out. We are going to scorch :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 yeah it's not really collocated right for a thump but more that there is some moisture in there which might float north if we hope hard enough. it isn't going to pick up on the nuances...it usually doesn't..it just pastes a broad swath...I am not taking it too seriously...but worth blending so we don't go too high...even with its dryness, it is still 2-3" for you and me...closer to 3" if we can lay down some snow with the front end before 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 overall, the euro just hates us but it is trending wetter every run. cant wait to see the 12z run tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weird... the map I have has DCA/BWI/IAD at -2 at 12z tomorrow for 850s hmm yeah it's pretty chilled even SE.. the next panel is when that area gets the heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The enhancement SE is to be expected where it's warmer, moister and has good low-level frontogenesis. It is the mid-level frontogen and cyclonic vorticity advection that will be responsible for the cold-sector "band" that pulls through. So QPF distribution makes total sense along with the speed at this thing is moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 overall, the euro just hates us but it is trending wetter every run. cant wait to see the 12z run tomorrow You're nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weird... the map I have has DCA/BWI/IAD at -2 at 12z tomorrow for 850s you're totally right...I swapped sfc and 850..i need sleep ...thanks for pointing that out...I think that puts me and you closer to 0.30", most frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The weather Channel's hyping everyone up on twitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 With the right expectations of around 2", one should be very pleased with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The weather Channel's hyping everyone up on twitter...That's their thing these days. The road to irrelevancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Like a 3 or 4 hour event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 you're totally right...I swapped sfc and 850..i need sleep ...thanks for pointing that out...I think that puts me and you closer to 0.30", most frozen... Its okay, I just wanted to be sure the map wasn't wrong that I was looking at I think we should just predict 2" and if we get more then so be it... that's my benchmark for tomorrow - to borrow your terminology... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 more Facebook Mets(this is for next weekend though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The enhancement SE is to be expected where it's warmer, moister and has good low-level frontogenesis. It is the mid-level frontogen and cyclonic vorticity advection that will be responsible for the cold-sector "band" that pulls through. So QPF distribution makes total sense along with the speed at this thing is moving. yet we all know the best banding will happen to our west ...do you agree, or think this one is a DC east event in terms of max QPF? I remember you in feb 2006, when models showed a s/e event and you were insistent that the best banding would set up nw of DC and you were right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The better ratio component / 700-500mb fronto band should still favor N/W areas seeing the max snow, even though modeled QPF is highest SE or where averaging between two areas is occurring. Maybe Wes can elaborate there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Like a 3 or 4 hour event? no..longer...more like 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Like a 3 or 4 hour event? You're nervous 3-6 inches....if we get 3, the forecast verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Facebook mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Like a 3 or 4 hour event? huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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