The Second Wave: Dec 10 (Model Discussion)

[snow.]

Well, this 0.5-1.5" snow thing we've been doing the last two seasons isn't "normal DC." In the past, even the worst seasons saw one or two 2-4"/3-6" snows. I'm hoping we can break out of the rut too... 

 

agreed...but I think some of us get a little ambitious when we start to think widespread high end amounts.  even with the output we are seeing 3" seems more likely than 5+

[gymengineer]

agreed, but early-mid December is kind of early for us in the city...3-5+ are pretty uncommon at this point as you know...going back 30 years...  12-12-82, 11/11/87, 11/23/89, 12/5/02, 12/5/05, 12/5/07, ...so maybe 1 out of every 5 winters......maybe not that unreasonable

And in 1989, there were two more 3-6" storms after the Thanksgiving one in early-mid December. 

[yoda]

What do people think about the new Canadian 12z just out...looks like 6-7 hours of decent snow north of a dividing line south of dc...http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

GGEM shouldnt really be used at this time... event is under 24 hrs away or so.... RGEM is better used as well as the local models (NAM/GFS/SREFs/any other mesoscale models)

[snow.]

And in 1989, there were two more 3-6" storms after the Thanksgiving one in early-mid December. 

 

yep..I forget when the 2nd on was so I didn't include it but it may have been 12/12?

[H2O]

not bad, but that storm had your more classic PAC with a big ridge in the west.  The atlantic kind of sucked but we had a 50-50...not the martimes ridge we have this year...like 2/2/96

 

What was the look for the march 1999 surprise storm?  I recall it being a wave progged to be just to our south but ended up super banding over DC for a wet 9"

[Ian]

agreed...but I think some of us get a little ambitious when we start to think widespread high end amounts. even with the output we are seeing 3" seems more likely than 5+

We are junkies. 3" would do. Tho since it's a Tuesday we need to max so they close gov.

[yoda]

FWIW... PIT just issued WWA for 3-5 in Garrett/Preston/Tucker from 3 am Tuesday to 5 pm Tuesday

[gymengineer]

yep..I forget when the 2nd on was so I didn't include it but it may have been 12/12?

December 8th and December 12th. The one on the 12th was similar to the two in late February 2005 when schools and governments closed in anticipation of the snow, but nothing stuck well during the daytime. Then, there was a last after dark burst to somewhat redeem the forecast.

[kurtstack]

Fact is DC is boom or bust town.  We very rarely have a "Climo" winter.

[H2O]

We are junkies. 3" would do. Tho since it's a Tuesday we need to max so they close gov.

 

4 day weekend!!!

[needbiggerboat]

My benchmark is snow blowable accumulations.  If I can't blow it, it will suck and I'll feel like I got screwed.

[midatlanticweather]

Anyone do a ratio analysis? I see JB says something about it. Seems this one could have some higher ratios in areas.

 

Thoughts?

[DCAlexandria]

[ravensrule]

I don't know much about the RPM model but...

It is an in house model television stations use, it is decent but it generally over does the snow.

[gymengineer]

Fact is DC is boom or bust town.  We very rarely have a "Climo" winter.

What do people consider 03/04, 04/05, and 05/06? 80%- roughly 115% of climo (depending on where you were) for three seasons in a row. 

[DCAlexandria]

DT's map needs to be shifted 40 miles SE. Otherwise it doesnt look like a bad guess.

[snow.]

DT's map needs to be shifted 40 miles SE. Otherwise it doesnt look like a bad guess.

 

Honesty it looks almost perfect to me

[Terpeast]

What do people consider 03/04, 04/05, and 05/06? 80%- roughly 115% of climo (depending on where you were) for three seasons in a row. 

 

03-04 and 04-05 each had a few 3-5" events that got us close to climo, but 05-06 had one MECS that was all it took.

[Bob Chill]

I'd be satisfied with 2" of snow.    That doesn't mean I won't want to see Bob Chill on a spit roast if he's in SN+ for hours and getting 6".

 

Nah, I won't say a word if it happens. I'll post so many pictures it will feel like you are there. I'm lookin out for you man.  

[Ian]

Honesty it looks almost perfect to me

yeah it's pretty good 

[Bob Chill]

I do know that the cpc analogs have been showing lots of late 70's and 80's analogs with this current pattern. The 80's were loaded with "modest events". At least I think they were. I partied a lot back then so I may not remember. 

[kurtstack]

Fact is DC is boom or bust town.  We very rarely have a "Climo" winter.

What do people consider 03/04, 04/05, and 05/06? 80%- roughly 115% of climo (depending on where you were) for three seasons in a row. 

Yep I would say + or - 20% or so is a reasonable range to call a winter climo others may define it differently.

[clskinsfan]

yeah it's pretty good

Yeah. He went with a climo map IMO.

[BTRWx]

Should we expect 10:1 ratios? The 12Z NAM for D.C. does not seem like that much qpf imo to get accumulating snow unless the ratios were high. The 12Z GFS looks much better though, go figure.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=nam&time=2013120912&field=prec

[gymengineer]

I do know that the cpc analogs have been showing lots of late 70's and 80's analogs with this current pattern. The 80's were loaded with "modest events". At least I think they were. I partied a lot back then so I may not remember. 

They were indeed. January 80, March 80 (although both might be too heavy to count as modest), January 82 had a couple, December 82 was a high end moderate, early February 83 (before the blizzard), January 84 had a couple, early March 84, January 85, and then three moderate snowstorms in February 86 within a week. January 88 had two modest ones and one big one. November-December 89 had three in a three week window. 

[PhineasC]

Jason keeps on adjusting the wording on that article, lol. His latest wording:

"Update- 11:20 a.m.: To clarify my comment above – I think the 5″+ assessment is aggressive, not because it’s impossible, but because it’s a “boom” (high-end) scenario – rather than the most likely scenario. Having said that, I don’t want to be overly critical of NWS as the storm will be coming in around rush hour and could have a high impact. It’s a borderline Winter Storm Watch situation, overall."

Did Jason predict the 6-10 inches that fell across the area yesterday?

[aldie 22]

yeah it's pretty good

His timing seems late though....afternoon into evening?

[Bob Chill]

They were indeed. January 80, March 80 (although both might be too heavy to count as modest), January 82 had a couple, December 82 was a high end moderate, January 84 had a couple, early March 84, January 85, and then three moderate snowstorms in February 86 within a week. January 88 had two modest ones and one big one. November-December 89 had three in a three week window. 

 

You clearly didn't party in the 80's. Or you are kinda like rainman. Either way, that's exactly how my minds eye remembers the 80's. Quite fondly actually. I like lots of events vs waiting for monsters. Yea, monsters are great but chasing the dragon is too fruitless for me. 

 

My bar is set at 3"+ on this one. If I only get 2 and it comes mostly in 2 hours then I guess I'm ok. If I get 1" then christmastown and my name will be in the paper wednesday. 

[snow.]

What was the look for the march 1999 surprise storm?  I recall it being a wave progged to be just to our south but ended up super banding over DC for a wet 9"

 

That was a productive pattern..we got lucky with banding for that one...it was an OV low that blew up...but we also had a -NAO

[gymengineer]

Yep I would say + or - 20% or so is a reasonable range to call a winter climo others may define it differently.

So the years between 02/03 and 09/10 actually weren't *that* painful (even 06/07 was bearable for me because of the high impact sleet storm), definitely better compared the seasons between 95/96 and 02/03. 

Although, of course, NYC and New England did much better than us compared to climo from 03/04 through 05/06.