Scuddz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 that's all well and good but in snow forecasts it's like 80% we live in a bad snow area and 20% the rest. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The biggest factor against tomorrow is time/alignment, really. With a more north-south alignment over the area, no band may sit over a spot too long (but they may not have to anyway). The setup tomorrow may prevent large-scale subsidence from ruining snow shield over the area but there still could be a decent band across PA. Up here, the alignment is more tilted with better dendrite making. If this becomes strong enough, it will take its toll on the banding to its south. For now, modeling says no and the vertical structure, circulation seems pretty classic, even if brief. I think many here would prefer a broad shield of pretty good SN with some SN+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think many here would prefer a broad shield of pretty good SN with some SN+. my benchmark for this storm imby is +SN (since I didn't get any yesterday) and 2"...I think I have a decent shot at both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 my benchmark for this storm imby is +SN (since I didn't get any yesterday) and 2"...I think I have a decent shot at both IMHO you have a very good shot at both. The watch which people are questioning seems possibly warranted. I certainly wouldn't demerit it if anything. It will probably verify in some places where the heaviest snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 IMHO you have a very good shot at both. The watch which people are questioning seems possibly warranted. I certainly wouldn't demerit it if anything. It will probably verify in some places where the heaviest snow is. Just like yesterday I'm sure there will be a surprise or 2 for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I am with snow. My benchmark with this is 1-2 inches and anything else will be gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I am with snow. My benchmark with this is 1-2 inches and anything else will be gravy meh.. if this ends up 1" it's a major disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Jason keeps on adjusting the wording on that article, lol. His latest wording: "Update- 11:20 a.m.: To clarify my comment above – I think the 5″+ assessment is aggressive, not because it’s impossible, but because it’s a “boom” (high-end) scenario – rather than the most likely scenario. Having said that, I don’t want to be overly critical of NWS as the storm will be coming in around rush hour and could have a high impact. It’s a borderline Winter Storm Watch situation, overall." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 my benchmark for this storm imby is +SN (since I didn't get any yesterday) and 2"...I think I have a decent shot at both Sorry but mine is 3". Anything else is a fail. It is illogical and destined for disappointment but I would hate to think we would miss yet again on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 actually it is pretty good, though it did have an east based -NAO...but no 50-50 and a broad based trough and a southern stream and a weak low and the artic air behind it..and a -PNA 12/5/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Is it just me or does CWG feel the need to frequently play Devils Advocate to NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Is it just me or does CWG feel the need to frequently play Devils Advocate to NWS? someone's got to.. most outlets just blindly praise them (not locally necessarily but nationally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Sorry but mine is 3". Anything else is a fail. It is illogical and destined for disappointment but I would hate to think we would miss yet again on this one. After getting the finger 60 miles south of the good stuff yesterday, it's 4" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 meh.. if this ends up 1" it's a major disaster. maybe you're right...but I try (and often fail) not to let model output drive my opinion of what occurs. We tend to be too wrapped up in what models show and they bust a lot and not usually in our favor here in DC. Whatever occurs is what was supposed to occur. It just means the models failed. Not the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 3-5 is a good call. The models are getting wetter each run. And we may be in an overperfoming window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Is it just me or does CWG feel the need to frequently play Devils Advocate to NWS? I don't think so- I think it's more just the nature being in the media. They have a pretty large audience that trusts their forecasts so they have to kind of "get ahead" to sniff out new threats. And since the NWS threw up the watch before they could release an actual accumulating snow forecast, I think there was pressure to comment in some manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 meh.. if this ends up 1" it's a major disaster. 1 inch would be a huge fail. I agree. It would affirm that we are the worst weather producing town in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No watch for Charles, Calvert, St. Mary's.....temps or track? I hope that changes and they get in on the fun, after being shafted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 maybe you're right...but I try (and often fail) not to let model output drive my opinion of what occurs. We tend to be too wrapped up in what models show and they bust a lot and not usually in our favor here in DC. Whatever occurs is what was supposed to occur. It just means the models failed. Not the storm itself. I'm not really saying it has to be more because of the models just that I'm sick of tiny putrid events. I know that's how we get a lot of our snow but we should also get a good event here and there. Granted I slept through the March snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I personally find a good amount of forecasters to have a level of arrogance...I suppose the competitive nature requires that to some degree...certainly dt is the height of it but they all exhibit it to some degree. Not an indictment just my observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12/5/02 not bad, but that storm had your more classic PAC with a big ridge in the west. The atlantic kind of sucked but we had a 50-50...not the martimes ridge we have this year...like 2/2/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not really saying it has to be more because of the models just that I'm sick of tiny putrid events. I know that's how we get a lot of our snow but we should also get a good event here and there. Granted I slept through the March snow.. Well, this 0.5-1.5" snow thing we've been doing the last two seasons isn't "normal DC." In the past, even the worst seasons saw one or two 2-4"/3-6" snows. I'm hoping we can break out of the rut too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 my benchmark for this storm imby is +SN (since I didn't get any yesterday) and 2"...I think I have a decent shot at both I'd be satisfied with 2" of snow. That doesn't mean I won't want to see Bob Chill on a spit roast if he's in SN+ for hours and getting 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 any concerns about stickage or initial temps around dc? is this expected to begin as snow, sleet, and/or freezing? just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't know much about the RPM model but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 My benchmark for this - and, really, for any storm - is the color red on the OPM webpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What do people think about the new Canadian 12z just out...looks like 6-7 hours of decent snow north of a dividing line south of dc...http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I personally find a good amount of forecasters to have a level of arrogance...I suppose the competitive nature requires that to some degree...certainly dt is the height of it but they all exhibit it to some degree. Not an indictment just my observation. Weather people are about as arrogant as it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not really saying it has to be more because of the models just that I'm sick of tiny putrid events. I know that's how we get a lot of our snow but we should also get a good event here and there. Granted I slept through the March snow.. agreed, but early-mid December is kind of early for us in the city...3-5+ are pretty uncommon at this point as you know...going back 30 years... 12-12-82, 11/11/87, 11/23/89, 12/5/02, 12/5/05, 12/5/07, ...so maybe 1 out of every 5 winters......maybe not that unreasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Well, this 0.5-1.5" snow thing we've been doing the last two seasons isn't "normal DC." In the past, even the worst seasons saw one or two 2-4"/3-6" snows. I'm hoping we can break out of the rut too... Yeah, true. I meant more that we do rely no the small events to get to climo -- if we ever do that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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