snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 loose analog - 2/2/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Based on the model data in at 9:00 am (just the NAM's 12Z run had come in), it may have been when you blend the GFS/Euro/NAM up through that point. But of course it's understandable that LWX would want to get a watch out now that we are within 24 hours of the next event. My comment was more questioning CWG's approach to describing the issuance of the watch... but I see that the post has been revised/modified already. Ah, fair enough. What I would really like to avoid is schools bringing the kids in mistakenly and then sending them back again around 10:00 during heavy snow, if that's how this snow chance develops. If the Watch helps alert schools to be ready to call off, I am fine with it. I would prefer not to have to go retrieve my kid during a heavy snow event, at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Damn, Sterling must have gotten a super secret early release of the GFS when they issued that WSW They have really been iffy this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 LWX takes a lot of heat on this board, but why is a Watch aggressive? They need to alert people the possiblity of this, especially if there is a legit shot at 1" to 2" rates during morning rush hour. Consider that this morning they had rain/snow up to 1/2" acc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What do the ratios in NOVA..Eeastern Loudoun, Fx look like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 By 5am or so it should be easy to make the call for officials either way. The WSW is a valid possibility. Worst case is a downgrade. Gets decisionmaker's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Classic SE to NW orientated vertical circulation. Lowest-level VVs SE of the area (850mb e.g.) to mid-level VVs over the area (700mb over DC and 600-500mb to the NW). This thing is a ripping, tilted frontal structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ah, fair enough. What I would really like to avoid is schools bringing the kids in mistakenly and then sending them back again around 10:00 during heavy snow, if that's how this snow chance develops. If the Watch helps alert schools to be ready to call off, I am fine with it. I would prefer not to have to go retrieve my kid during a heavy snow event, at any rate. Yeah, that's a huge concern. At that point, safer to keep them till 3pm when at least it isn't still snowing. Unfortunately, they rarely do that but instead risk having parents and buses come pick them up. If schools are smart, they'll just make tomorrow the 4th weekend day, especially with all the ice that will have refroze tonight and will be covered by the fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 HM is talking dirty again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 loose analog - 2/2/96 actually it is pretty good, though it did have an east based -NAO...but no 50-50 and a broad based trough and a southern stream and a weak low and the artic air behind it..and a -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Doesn't look like the snow would go anywhere either......... TUE 06Z 10-DEC -0.8 4.8 0.00TUE 12Z 10-DEC -0.8 -2.3 0.15TUE 18Z 10-DEC -1.0 -4.8 0.49 WED 00Z 11-DEC -2.9 -8.9 0.00 WED 06Z 11-DEC -8.0 -6.4 0.00WED 12Z 11-DEC -10.3 -4.9 0.00WED 18Z 11-DEC -2.5 -4.7 0.00 THU 00Z 12-DEC -12.8 -5.6 0.00 THU 06Z 12-DEC -5.8 -9.8 0.00 THU 12Z 12-DEC -7.4 -11.9 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Classic SE to NW orientated vertical circulation. Lowest-level VVs SE of the area (850mb e.g.) to mid-level VVs over the area (700mb over DC and 600-500mb to the NW). This thing is a ripping, tilted frontal structure. Thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Blizzard of 1899 for them. those little guys are resilient. this will be a test though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think the watch is fine. Sometimes we assume we know more than we do with this stuff... see yesterday snow. If I had to bet I'd take the under on 5" in DC but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 By 5am or so it should be easy to make the call for officials either way. The WSW is a valid possibility. Worst case is a downgrade. Gets decisionmaker's attention. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 loose analog - 2/2/96 That storm had very heavy snow during the afternoon...several inches as a quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I hope people don't overreact when the Euro shows a nice wide swath of 0.25 - 0.4"....It is what the euro does...it is steady...it usually doesn't swing wildly...it tempers our expectations....when it honks it really honks...i.e...NE Blizzard last winter...But it is a risk to ignore it...It helps set up the range of possibilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 If I had to bet I'd take the under on 5" in DC but it's possible. The fish disagrees... I would take the under too. I was feeling 1-3/2-4 last couple days. Kinda gotta go with 3-5 now with someone nearby hitting 777's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Thunder? I'm not sure. The h7 theta-e advection with the initial shot may be enough to prevent that but the soundings do get more unstable with time, especially north of the DC-area. Like around 15-18z the soundings grow less stable, but everything is disjointed then. Will the broad cool air advection after the morning surge be enough to ruin convective chances? We get a real strong shot of differential vorticity after the morning shot, but there will be opposing forces here. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not sure. The h7 theta-e advection with the initial shot may be enough to prevent that but the soundings do get more unstable with time, especially north of the DC-area. Like around 15-18z the soundings grow less stable, but everything is disjointed then. Will the broad cool air advection after the morning surge be enough to ruin convective chances? We get a real strong shot of differential vorticity after the morning shot, but there will be opposing forces here. We'll see... Very nice explanation HM. Regardless of the thunder, what you're saying is there will be some very very heavy snow in some places? It looks pretty likely rates in a few locales could be phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think the watch is fine. Sometimes we assume we know more than we do with this stuff... see yesterday snow. If I had to bet I'd take the under on 5" in DC but it's possible. I think it's fine as well. CWG did go a little overboard on it though. I would have just said...While 5" is possible, it's not probable or something like that. But that was before I saw the GFS. NWS doesn't look so aggressive now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think it's fine as well. CWG did go a little overboard on it though. I would have just said...While 5" is possible, it's not probable or something like that. But that was before I saw the GFS. NWS doesn't look so aggressive now. "We think this watch may be a bit aggressive and that 5 or more inches of snow is a low probability (not out of the question)." From the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't know. This looks like you'd have to look harder to find reasons the watch wouldn't verify (not enough QPF, initial warm nose could cut ratios/IP) rather than why it would (plenty of cold, upper level support, banding). While it might not verify directly at DCA, or over the entirety of the watch area, it looks like a high probability that it would verify in many areas and that would make the watch warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like trade day is upon us. Email contract please. I'm ready to sign off Keep your pants on, Randy is currently in negotiations with Bx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't know. This looks like you'd have to look harder to find reasons the watch wouldn't verify (not enough QPF, initial warm nose could cut ratios/IP) rather than why it would (plenty of cold, upper level support, banding). While it might not verify directly at DCA, or over the entirety of the watch area, it looks like a high probability that it would verify in many areas and that would make the watch warranted. good reasoning, nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think it's fine as well. CWG did go a little overboard on it though. I would have just said...While 5" is possible, it's not probable or something like that. But that was before I saw the GFS. NWS doesn't look so aggressive now. One of the things about the internet is people tend to use "we" instead of "I". But who knows. I totally flubbed the max snow area yesterday.. in fact I argued against far N&W the day prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Very nice explanation HM. Regardless of the thunder, what you're saying is there will be some very very heavy snow in some places? It looks pretty likely rates in a few locales could be phenomenal. The biggest factor against tomorrow is time/alignment, really. With a more north-south alignment over the area, no band may sit over a spot too long (but they may not have to anyway). The setup tomorrow may prevent large-scale subsidence from ruining snow shield over the area but there still could be a decent band across PA. Up here, the alignment is more tilted with better dendrite making. If this becomes strong enough, it will take its toll on the banding to its south. For now, modeling says no and the vertical structure, circulation seems pretty classic, even if brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't know. This looks like you'd have to look harder to find reasons the watch wouldn't verify (not enough QPF, initial warm nose could cut ratios/IP) rather than why it would (plenty of cold, upper level support, banding). While it might not verify directly at DCA, or over the entirety of the watch area, it looks like a high probability that it would verify in many areas and that would make the watch warranted. that's all well and good but in snow forecasts it's like 80% we live in a bad snow area and 20% the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 <JI>if DCA could get >4" then KA would bust on part of his snow forecast this year<JI> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onel0126 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No watch for Charles, Calvert, St. Mary's.....temps or track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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