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The Second Wave: Dec 10 (Model Discussion)


stormtracker

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I don't care if the models show the precip maxima over La Plata...the heaviest banding will set up to the west of the beltways

 

you know I agree with you until proven otherwise. Just having fun weenieing out a little. You gotta admit. It's kinda cool having a redemption chance even if it phails. 

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GFS seems a little warmer at 850 though? Still is a great December hit.

 

At 30 on the 6z, precip is moving in and 850 goes right through DC on SW/NE axis. On 12z, its oriented the same way but down near Waldorf. Not a huge difference, but doesn't look warmer close to the city. Surface is around the same; could be a bit warmer in places.

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Hmmm... I agree that a watch might be aggressive, but why would Jason feel the need to add any commentary about the watch itself prior to releasing CWG's own forecast? Why not just wait until all the models come in and then comment on the NWS Watch during the 2 pm release of the forecast?

 

LWX takes a lot of heat on this board, but why is a Watch aggressive? They need to alert people the possiblity of this, especially if there is a legit shot at 1" to 2" rates during morning rush hour.

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LWX takes a lot of heat on this board, but why is a Watch aggressive? They need to alert people the possiblity of this, especially if there is a legit shot at 1" to 2" rates during morning rush hour.

Based on the model data in at 9:00 am (just the NAM's 12Z run had come in), it may have been when you blend the GFS/Euro/NAM up through that point. But of course it's understandable that LWX would want to get a watch out now that we are within 24 hours of the next event. 

 

My comment was more questioning CWG's approach to describing the issuance of the watch, particularly because the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro hadn't come out yet.. but I see that Jason's post has already changed somewhat. 

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