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The Second Wave: Dec 10 (Model Discussion)


stormtracker

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Every GEFS member that I can see on Ewall has the storm. It's rain on some…depends if/when the boundary pushes through. I don't think this ever had potential to be a big snow event, but certainly has a T-2"/1-3" sort of potential.

It's all over the latest run too. Wide range of possibilities.

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at 66hrs, NAM looks like it's going to have the trailing wave too

or maybe I'm seeing things, but I don't think that's the case

good eyes

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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I hope that trailing wave doesn't get any stronger than NAM is showing (I know, it probably isn't right but just sayin') because it may get too wound up and get too warm or even pass too far west to give us snow

 

Yeah, it's serious biz as depicted...but it's the NAM.  Anyway, we might wanna move talk of that wave to the appropriate thread.

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Soundings for mby at 84 hrs.

dry air will cool the atmosphere so whatever makes it in here would be snow (if correct, of course)

 1015.    51.    0.3   -1.2   298.3     4.2 1000.   168.   -0.2   -2.7   304.5     7.8  975.   371.   -0.8   -4.9   311.1    11.9  950.   578.   -2.4   -6.7   311.1    13.9  925.   789.   -1.5  -11.1   302.4    17.9  900.  1008.    0.8  -15.2   288.6    17.1  875.  1235.    1.7  -18.2   276.9    16.1  850.  1468.    1.6  -15.1   267.4    16.6  825.  1708.    0.3  -21.0   259.0    16.3  800.  1953.   -1.2  -14.2   250.7    17.4  775.  2205.   -4.1  -10.8   248.4    19.0  750.  2462.   -6.7   -9.4   245.9    19.7  725.  2726.   -7.5   -8.4   241.1    21.5  700.  3001.   -5.0   -5.6   233.9    26.6  650.  3585.   -4.4   -4.8   224.1    35.7  600.  4213.   -7.6   -8.3   226.3    42.7
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