WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's still all over the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's back Yes, but more so for Fredericksburg and points south than the metro area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2/4 runs has it each day if that and we are only 4 days away. I smell Nov 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 The Mitchnick Storm is on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Every GEFS member that I can see on Ewall has the storm. It's rain on some…depends if/when the boundary pushes through. I don't think this ever had potential to be a big snow event, but certainly has a T-2"/1-3" sort of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Every GEFS member that I can see on Ewall has the storm. It's rain on some…depends if/when the boundary pushes through. I don't think this ever had potential to be a big snow event, but certainly has a T-2"/1-3" sort of potential. It's all over the latest run too. Wide range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 at 66hrs, NAM looks like it's going to have the trailing wave too or maybe I'm seeing things, but I don't think that's the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Wave number 2 looks good at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 at 66hrs, NAM looks like it's going to have the trailing wave too or maybe I'm seeing things, but I don't think that's the case HR 84 looks like incoming goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM likes wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 at 66hrs, NAM looks like it's going to have the trailing wave too or maybe I'm seeing things, but I don't think that's the case good eyes http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 good eyes http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 If you'd use instant weather maps you'd have those good eyes sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 good eyes http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Did you look at that sim radar? If only ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If you'd use instant weather maps you'd have those good eyes sooner. I feel obligated to get my tax dollar's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 good eyes http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Yeah, it's pretty robust on the NAM. I wish the globals had it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I feel obligated to get my tax dollar's worth I can't understand why that site is so slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah, it's pretty robust on the NAM. I wish the globals had it like that. Some of the ens members did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I can't understand why that site is so slow. Probably to prevent another server shutdown disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I hope that trailing wave doesn't get any stronger than NAM is showing (I know, it probably isn't right but just sayin') because it may get too wound up and get too warm or even pass too far west to give us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah, it's pretty robust on the NAM. I wish the globals had it like that. Nam 84<cfs4250 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 I hope that trailing wave doesn't get any stronger than NAM is showing (I know, it probably isn't right but just sayin') because it may get too wound up and get too warm or even pass too far west to give us snow Yeah, it's serious biz as depicted...but it's the NAM. Anyway, we might wanna move talk of that wave to the appropriate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM likes wave 2 Looks a bit warm, notwithstanding any much-discussed NAM cold bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah, it's serious biz as depicted...but it's the NAM. Anyway, we might wanna move talk of that wave to the appropriate thread. is there a bitchnick storm thread yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM hr 84 has the freezing line at the surface over I-95 again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM hr 84 has the freezing line at the surface over I-95 again... Yes, but at 7am in December that doesn't say much for the imaginary 90 hr panel, with the low west of RIC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Bring forth the DGEX! (for the fun of it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Soundings for mby at 84 hrs. dry air will cool the atmosphere so whatever makes it in here would be snow (if correct, of course) 1015. 51. 0.3 -1.2 298.3 4.2 1000. 168. -0.2 -2.7 304.5 7.8 975. 371. -0.8 -4.9 311.1 11.9 950. 578. -2.4 -6.7 311.1 13.9 925. 789. -1.5 -11.1 302.4 17.9 900. 1008. 0.8 -15.2 288.6 17.1 875. 1235. 1.7 -18.2 276.9 16.1 850. 1468. 1.6 -15.1 267.4 16.6 825. 1708. 0.3 -21.0 259.0 16.3 800. 1953. -1.2 -14.2 250.7 17.4 775. 2205. -4.1 -10.8 248.4 19.0 750. 2462. -6.7 -9.4 245.9 19.7 725. 2726. -7.5 -8.4 241.1 21.5 700. 3001. -5.0 -5.6 233.9 26.6 650. 3585. -4.4 -4.8 224.1 35.7 600. 4213. -7.6 -8.3 226.3 42.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yes, but at 7am in December that doesn't say much for the imaginary 90 hr panel, with the low west of RIC... This wouldn't be a big deal in Europe right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This wouldn't be a big deal in Europe right? Not compared to this... http://www.euronews.com/2013/12/06/storm-xaver-reeks-deadly-havoc-across-europe/ Though, the Weather Channel naming convention seems to have jumped the atlantic... or vice versa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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