Fozz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Reminds me of February 2, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Poor school systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks about right. next hehlolz.JPG I like that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No kidding! I thought we needed a +EPO -NOA +WPO +++AO ++ASS and 350Ft/lb of mountain torque to see a snowflake LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Reminds me of February 2, 2010 To me a perfect analog (not synoptically, but in the way its been tracked). Also followed the 1/30/10 event for seemingly 2 weeks, which we sorta did. In this storm, we had ours eyes on yesterdays event forever. 2/2 snuck up on the area to some, dropped a nice 4-6" snowfall in a shorter period of time like this one will. I expect much of the same. Sterling upgraded that day to a WSWarning a few hours before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What a stretch! Does look like a good band sets up...and there may be higher lollis than predicted where that sets up. Coastal, you made a kick a$$ post on the thread yesterday as to why the banding did what it did. Any clues about tomorrow? Meaning, does dca metro / burbs stand a chance or should we just accept the fact that we don't get banded anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 To me a perfect analog (not synoptically, but in the way its been tracked). Also followed the 1/30/10 event for seemingly 2 weeks, which we sorta did. In this storm, we had ours eyes on yesterdays event forever. 2/2 snuck up on the area to some, dropped a nice 4-6" snowfall in a shorter period of time like this one will. I expect much of the same. Sterling upgraded that day to a WSWarning a few hours before the storm. Mitch, randy, and I have been tracking this event since September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 High Resolution NAM 4K kinda sucks. Terrible last storm. when you post in the future, you may want to take a queue from the High Resolution NAM's nomenclature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And there were no splitting hairs over model runs for days and days with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 when is this starting around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 WSW issued out here too..... didn't expect that. Give me another 5" of Dec snow followed by some cold, and I'll be the happiest guy in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Reminds me of February 2, 2010 that was more of a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 when is this starting around here? Tuesday AM commute. Carroll County Public Safety has a decent facebook page with local info on timing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yesterday was a classic setup for synoptic-scale lift with low-mid level deformation, differential thermal advection, PVA etc. When you have general large-scale lift, spatially, you can anticipate mesoscale banding along deformation zones (momentum-pending). The dry air, in these situations, is always modeled to win for QPF, because synoptically, the model is correct. However, when you are making perfect dendrites, prolifically, with omega/RH in the snow growth zone, the bands tend to be equally prolific. These lead to the busts like we saw in Jan 2010, Jan 2011 and yesterday on the northern edge of QPF. Tomorrow, is not the same thing. We do not have all the factors that favor large-scale lift in-place. During the time of snow potential, large-scale low to mid level cold air advection is favored. In fact, the profiles may get a bit unstable for a while, similar to a summertime squall line. Your band / period of snow will be more N-S orientated while up in PA, it will have a little more time to accumulate with a SW-NE tilt. So between the duration and synoptic-scale setup, I would say it's another one that favors north of you. But let's see how the GFS comes in. Given the unstable nature to this round of snow, it could be really fun for a while. Makes total sense, HM. Yesterday had a beastly hp nosing down into the waa precip. Even though the models didn't really show it accurately, it make sense that the w-e oriented battle zone would be the win zone. That "finger" was modeled to some extent but was further south until the end. And even then it wasn't modeled well. But I'm not so sure you can expect models to see all the details correctly until it is basically happening anyways. Something to keep in the memory banks for the next time a similar setup happens. Probably in 10 years or so. lol With tomorrow we have the cold air pressing behind so I can totally see why the bands will be nw-sw oriented. I just hope we can at least be in the "middle of the pack" with accum snow and not look like a bunch of 3rd stringers on the bench not even dressed to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I have heard some chatter around 12:1 ratios, maybe going as high as 15:1. Any believers on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Reminds me of February 2, 2010 This one may be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Could this hit at any other worse time of day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS faster and more organized. Looks like another good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS looks nice with evolution, therefore making for a better banding set-up and quality QPF presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 850s are a bit more marginal than the NAM, however. Should still support mostly even down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Tuesday AM commute. Carroll County Public Safety has a decent facebook page with local info on timing, etc. Do you think the initial snow burst will be anemic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS is nice. Area wide .5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS is niiiiiice EDIT: Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Closed slp contours....sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I cant believe the NAM is actually the front runner on an event. It seems it did well in 09/10 as well. It must know something about Mid Atlantic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wow, dca in the bulleye zone. .6 - .7. Wes is in there too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS seems a little warmer at 850 though? Still is a great December hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wow, dca in the bulleye zone. .6 - .7. Wes is in there too... I don't care if the models show the precip maxima over La Plata...the heaviest banding will set up to the west of the beltways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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