Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't really have any confidence in QPF distribution. I am going to assume the heaviest bands will set up NW of the beltways Just showing verbatim output. And I don't disagree until radar tells me otherwise. There is hope though. Nice UVV's and a system that clears the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Might as well give us the snow map too I'm waiting for the high res ones. Kinda slow. 12k ones show relatively uniform distribution of 3-5 with 6 inches to the sw of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 and anyone who complains how much more this would be if we had blocking so the storm could slow should be banned! this is a great pattern for us and proves that snow is possible without the traditional indices in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 and anyone who complains how much more this would be if we had blocking so the storm could slow should be banned! this is a great pattern for us and proves that snow is possible without the traditional indices in our favor This is a good point Mitch. The primary difference this year compared to many recent ones is the pv in canada and arctic outbreaks. Reminds me of old school stuff of the 70s and 80's. Many of the cpc d8-11 analogs have been 70s and 80s recently. It's pac driven this year so it's not "stable" but man it's been persistent for a while. Now ens guidance is pointing towards goa and west coast ridging down the road. Not as cold but still. Lets stay active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm waiting for the high res ones. Kinda slow. 12k ones show relatively uniform distribution of 3-5 with 6 inches to the sw of dc. You just know that it won't be until the storm starts that we see where the jackpot bands set up. I know where to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You just know that it won't be until the storm starts that we see where the jackpot bands set up. I know where to guess N-S-E-W of our yards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I wonder if watches will be issued with the late morning update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Subtle change to the forecast from LWX Right? Hmm 3-5 is borderline warning. Although 5+ is usually the trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Tuesday: Snow, mainly before noon. High near 32. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. :snowing: :snowing: :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm waiting for the high res ones. Kinda slow. 12k ones show relatively uniform distribution of 3-5 with 6 inches to the sw of dc. Looks like a D.C. split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 and anyone who complains how much more this would be if we had blocking so the storm could slow should be banned! this is a great pattern for us and proves that snow is possible without the traditional indices in our favor No kidding! I thought we needed a +EPO -NOA +WPO +++AO ++ASS and 350Ft/lb of mountain torque to see a snowflake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like a DT first guess map -- not use to this from NWS. They got badly burned yesterday and so now will go too far in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 and anyone who complains how much more this would be if we had blocking so the storm could slow should be banned! this is a great pattern for us and proves that snow is possible without the traditional indices in our favor southern stream...it makes a world of difference and until it shuts off, with so much cold air around, I shouldn't be very determiistic about our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 good, ole' fashion VA to MA snow storm The best ole' fashion ones include LYH..this may be a little sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No kidding! I thought we needed a +EPO -NOA +WPO +++AO ++ASS and 350Ft/lb of mountain torque to see a snowflake I got frustrated the last few winters as to why we couldn't get an old school 2-4" snowfall. The ones we used to get with some regularity when the pattern wasn't ideal....and it is clear for many of them we had a southern stream. Plus I think the +PDO regime from 76-2007 helped. Otherwise without it you need a tricky phase or a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 If I get 3-5" this 3 days will be the best winter since 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No kidding! I thought we needed a +EPO -NOA +WPO +++AO ++ASS and 350Ft/lb of mountain torque to see a snowflake My god, that made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 As usual, LWX's snow map doesn't match my point and click. Oh well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 As usual, LWX's snow map doesn't match my point and click. Oh well..... I'd sue and demand a new car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 RIC screwed on this one too? N/M....saw map below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks about right. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Sterling pretty bullish for me...3-5"....I think 2-4" is a better forecast, but nice that all guidance is coalescing Looked to me like the euro liked you 2-4. This is one of those storms when it was late to the ball game and one where the NAM looks like it might have been the most consistent model. What a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gwen Tolbert just said a mix...no big deal...we are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 High Resolution NAM 4K kinda sucks. Terrible last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN1009 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATETONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 66 IN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND U.S. ROUTE 50 IN MARYLAND.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.* TIMING...NEAR DAWN TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 New event. Winter Storm Watch from 12/10/2013 5:00 AM to 1:00 PM EST for Montgomery County, Carroll County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Gwen Tolbert just said a mix...no big deal...we are good She is really really awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 meh, I never thought this was the kind of system that needed a WSW..... I guess it's the rush hour timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What a stretch! Does look like a good band sets up...and there may be higher lollis than predicted where that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm thinking 3-5" is a quality call for the 3 big airports, with lolli's to 6 or 7 assuming we have these insane 1-2" rates being modeled. There are going to be some serious, I repeat serious travel issues tomorrow in a number of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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