Scraff Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Tom Nizol from the Weather Channel just went 3-5 for the cities. 7-8 am start time. Digging this weeks trends no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't understand LWX forecast at all especially for DC. Rain and snow? 1/2"? I don't see anything that suggests rain. Reading their discussion it seems they are riding the euro completely. I think this looks good for dc. Yeah I'm wondering the same thing? I heard the radio talking about 2-4" tomorrow (I don't know what their source was - maybe they read americanwx LOL)...but LWX has the area with a half inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't understand LWX forecast at all especially for DC. Rain and snow? 1/2"? I don't see anything that suggests rain. Reading their discussion it seems they are riding the euro completely. I think this looks good for dc. Maybe the old euro. Last night's run was cold, at least at 850 and the surface. More likely they were still shy from the 00z NAM which was mixy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't understand LWX forecast at all especially for DC. Rain and snow? 1/2"? I don't see anything that suggests rain. Reading their discussion it seems they are riding the euro completely. I think this looks good for dc. I don't understand that either...but I gotta say..the Euro is a nagging thought in the back of my head....although its good to see all other guidance on track for a decent event...it's not like the others have moved toward the Euro, it's the other way around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 All guidance is locked into a good stripe of snow here. Euro is furthest east for now but I think that will change with the next run. It's another narrow band of winners. Closer to DC this time but far from a lock. The images I'm using are snow maps. I don't like snow maps at all except for they do a good job showing the precip distribution and stripe. Here's what we have this morning: High res nam: RGEM: GFS: I checked the DCA WFDI and it looks like the odds favor a dc or near dc bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I bet the euro shifts n and w with the band....its been playing catchup and trending that way it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't understand that either...but I gotta say..the Euro is a nagging thought in the back of my head....although its good to see all other guidance on track for a decent event...it's not like the others have moved toward the Euro, it's the other way around this time. I hope like hell this nails DC. I hate to see friends suffer. I'll gladly cheer from the sidelines this time. Whatever it is, it sure looks quick. One time I'd like to see about an 18 hour event with about 1/2 per hour. Talk about mood flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTOBETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLYHEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ONTUE. INCREASING WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKSURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTING WITHRIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO HELPPRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONGTHE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAYHELP TO SUPPORT BANDED PRECIPITATION ACCENTUATING AMOUNTS FROMNORTHERN VA TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENG COAST...WHERE A SLIGHT-MDTRISK FOR AT LEAST 4-INCHES HAS BEEN INDICATED ON DAY 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 WPC likes it,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE. INCREASING WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTING WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY HELP TO SUPPORT BANDED PRECIPITATION ACCENTUATING AMOUNTS FROM NORTHERN VA TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENG COAST...WHERE A SLIGHT-MDT RISK FOR AT LEAST 4-INCHES HAS BEEN INDICATED ON DAY 2. Yes and their map makes the LWX forecast even more baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah I'm wondering the same thing? I heard the radio talking about 2-4" tomorrow (I don't know what their source was - maybe they read americanwx LOL)...but LWX has the area with a half inch or less. Probably just being conservative especially after blowing it yesterday. Mount Holly is doing the same thing. This looks like a quick hitter, with some dynamics and likely a heavy snow band or two(like yesterday) and the placement is uncertain. I could see some places with under an inch, and others with 4. They will look at the afternoon runs and tweak the forecast as necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Probably the warm wet ground making them hold off on accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Probably just being conservative especially after blowing it yesterday. Mount Holly is doing the same thing. This looks like a quick hitter, with some dynamics and likely a heavy snow band or two(like yesterday) and the placement is uncertain. I could see some places with under an inch, and others with 4. They will look at the afternoon runs and tweak the forecast as necessary. I heard the same thing. I saw NBC4 has a 2-4 swath over the city, so maybe they are the source. http://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/stories/Wintry-Mix-Likely-on-Sunday-234604191.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_DCBrand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I wouldn't call the srefs an improvement. About the same. Yoda must be asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I heard the same thing. I saw NBC4 has a 2-4 swath over the city, so maybe they are the source. http://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/stories/Wintry-Mix-Likely-on-Sunday-234604191.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_DCBrand Man..yes please on that nbc map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Twc going with a "quick burst of snow for the am rush". Everyone seems to be playing this very conservatively. I'm not so sure....there is a deep subtropical connection with this wave. 12z runs should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 WPC likes it,. I will take that and find a way to hide it from the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Man..yes please on that nbc map I don't see that being correct out here. Maybe from you down to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Twc going with a "quick burst of snow for the am rush". Everyone seems to be playing this very conservatively. I'm not so sure....there is a deep subtropical connection with this wave. 12z runs should be very interesting. TWC is going with 3 to 5. That's conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Didn't see that....the ocm just said that quote. ...made it sound like no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I don't see that being correct out here. Maybe from you down to DC I'm on to you...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 One important aspect to keep mind for us close in dca folks with this event is that a front is clearing with it. The forcing and bands will move through all regions during the event. Pretty sure everyone sees some nice rates this go around. I have a hunch that the heaviest rates will occur closer to the coast vs further west. The system intensifies as it moves though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 TWC is going with 3 to 5. That's conservative? based on current modeling and removing the paranoia the last 3 years has given us, that's a pretty accurate call imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 From what I'm gathering this is a mid-morning deal? I have an anxious wife who is a teacher who wants another day off. Wait, did fairfax cancel today?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'll take another 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think the NAM is trying hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 TWC is actually calling for 1-3" with a pocket of 3-5" in central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NAM is definitely faster and more organized. This is going to be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Would be great to see some heavy bursts of accumulating snow....been a long time, have not had that since March 2013. Didn't get to use the snowblower yesterday since the warm ground temps kept the snow totals in check here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Their winter guy is actually pretty decent at explaining how the snow could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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