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The Second Wave: Dec 10 (Model Discussion)


stormtracker

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20 out of 20 gefs members have the storm and the euro op does not. There is a gun to your head and you must bet your life savings on one or the other. What do you do?

 

POP QUIZ HOTSHOT!

Seems like a good bet we'll see something coming out of the sky. Whether it's not anything of note or 2-4 inches remains to be seen I guess. 

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PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

500 PM EST SUN DEC 08 2013

VALID 00Z MON DEC 09 2013 - 00Z THU DEC 12 2013

DAY 2...

THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW ON TUES WILL OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS BUT

NOTHING AS WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A CLIPPER LIKE

FEATURE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HEAD TOWARD THE

UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... HEAVY LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKES... ESPECIALLY

OF SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES

INTO THE REGION... EXPECT ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS

ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... THE

TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE

HEAVY SNOWFALL. FINALLY... THE THREAT FOR LIGHT ICING AND A NARROW

BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TN VLY TO THE NRN

MID-ATL REGION... AS YET A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO

CLIP THE REGION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE

MOISTURE ADVECTION... AS THE GFS DEPICTS THE MOST BACKING AND

MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD SECTOR... WHILE THE

ECMWF AND NAM ARE MOST SUPPRESSED. WPC WENT WITH SOMETHING IN

BETWEEN OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS OF A UKMET/INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS

CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUES

MORNING OF A FEW INCHES ARE AD THE DC/BAL/PHI AREAS.

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PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD500 PM EST SUN DEC 08 2013VALID 00Z MON DEC 09 2013 - 00Z THU DEC 12 2013DAY 2...THE THREAT FOR HVY SNOW ON TUES WILL OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS BUTNOTHING AS WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A CLIPPER LIKEFEATURE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HEAD TOWARD THEUPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... HEAVY LAKEEFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKES... ESPECIALLYOF SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO. AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVESINTO THE REGION... EXPECT ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERSACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... THETRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPEHEAVY SNOWFALL. FINALLY... THE THREAT FOR LIGHT ICING AND A NARROWBAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TN VLY TO THE NRNMID-ATL REGION... AS YET A THIRD WAVE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TOCLIP THE REGION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THEMOISTURE ADVECTION... AS THE GFS DEPICTS THE MOST BACKING ANDMOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD SECTOR... WHILE THEECMWF AND NAM ARE MOST SUPPRESSED. WPC WENT WITH SOMETHING INBETWEEN OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS OF A UKMET/INTERNAL PSEUDO BIASCORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUESMORNING OF A FEW INCHES ARE AD THE DC/BAL/PHI AREAS.

 

they were referring to the 12Z NAM being more suppressed because the 18Z was wetter than the 12z and 18z GFS

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While Tuesday could be a nice little event, the "potential" Day 6-8 event has a much better potential to be a more significant even if the pieces align. 

I always prefer to focus on the next event simply because we seem to lose events left and right during our winters and the more time = more chances to lose it

just the way I think about threats not necessarily any better or correct than the next person

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I don't know how anyone can say something a week.out is not likely.. we haven't gotten nearly enough info to make any judgement calls still 168-192 hrs away. Geesh

 

It's not a likely outcome...he's not saying it won't happen he's saying it's unlikely...which I'm sure many would agree with. 

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