stormtracker Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 matt just gave me the face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18z GFS says 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 With all due respect...starting a thread because of a feel good happy hour threat is precarious at best. But I hope it FOOKIN happens. Semi all in till 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 With all due respect...starting a thread because of a feel good happy hour threat is precarious at best. But I hope it FOOKIN happens. Semi all in till 0z. It's been there for a while as you know..18z GFS just went all medieval on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's been there for a while as you know..18z GFS just went all medieval on it Well, it has been there and we've commented on it but kind of in passing fashion at best. Now the gfs (18z of all runs) jacked it full of silver iodide. Threadworthy? I guess we've had worse ones...and I love tracking flurries anyway. Seriously. I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well, it has been there and we've commented on it but kind of in passing fashion at best. Now the gfs (18z of all runs) jacked it full of silver iodide. Threadworthy? I guess we've had worse ones...and I love tracking flurries anyway. Seriously. I do. It has to start being there consistently. This is the second day it has played peek-a-boo with us. Sharp gradient for a wave to ride on and a lot can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It has to start being there consistently. This is the second day it has played peek-a-boo with us. Sharp gradient for a wave to ride on and a lot can change Sounds like you are close to goin all in. It will be a bonus after we finish shoveling 5" of 18z gfs droppings sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS Ensemble mean likes Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS Ensemble mean likes Tuesday What do 850's look like on the mean? The 18z GFS has me right on the border...which is a bad thing considering it's the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This winter could end up better than the last two for many of us by the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This winter could end up better than the last two for many of us by the end of next week. What you thinking for us northern folks? I feel so dumb being in this area and not knowing what to really expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This winter could end up better than the last two for many of us by the end of next week. I was thinking this is the better event as well. No quibbling about temps at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What you thinking for us northern folks? I feel so dumb being in this area and not knowing what to really expect Just remember that you average almost twice as much snow as DCA (the point of reference for most mid-Atlantic posters and CWG articles) and that you'll be better off 99% of the time, unless something is suppressed. Marginal events with mixing are your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What you thinking for us northern folks? I feel so dumb being in this area and not knowing what to really expect These next couple events are the sort in which you'll do well. I could easily see you getting 4 inches if DCA gets 1. Being patient is sometimes hard. In these storms, huffwx will be reporting snow for hours before you even have flurries. It can be a little disheartening reading posts from people in southern and central VA talking about the back edge and under-perfoming before your snow even starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 the main reason why I believe the tail end wave chances is what's going on tonight and tomorrow there are 2 waves traveling up the front, the 1st giving snow to eastern Lakes/OH and the 2nd NE so, if the SE ridge/gradient pattern can assist/contribute to 2 of these waves moving up the front to our west, then over us, it does sound reasonable that the SE ridge will continue its fight and give us some action as the front reaches the coast that's my story and I'm sticking with it; anybody who says otherwise is full of CARP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm fully invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm fully invested. I hope this storm is not the invest 91L of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I agree Mitch. In a typical setup the boundary would get pushed much further east after wave 2 but the h5 pattern is something we don't normally see. We fair a decent chance at still being in the path but I have some doubts about how much precip will be associated with it even if we bullseye. Still fun to watch and who knows. Maybe this is the year that things trend in our favor leading up. Kinda like 09-10 but 1/10th scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I agree Mitch. In a typical setup the boundary would get pushed much further east after wave 2 but the h5 pattern is something we don't normally see. We fair a decent chance at still being in the path but I have some doubts about how much precip will be associated with it even if we bullseye. Still fun to watch and who knows. Maybe this is the year that things trend in our favor leading up. Kinda like 09-10 but 1/10th scale I'm only getting 7.5" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm only getting 7.5" this year. Yep, pretty awesome right?! So much better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yep, pretty awesome right?! So much better than last year. Dude...I rocked it with 11" last year!!1!1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Dude...I rocked it with 11" last year!!1!1!! Oh wow, it's gonna suck pretty bad then. Me on the other hand...I had like 4" on a slantstick. I'm looking at almost 200 perskent better. That's a lot of perskents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Oh wow, it's gonna suck pretty bad then. Me on the other hand...I had like 4" on a slantstick. I'm looking at almost 200 perskent better. That's a lot of perskents! Us Rockville-folk forget how March 5-6 somehow managed to snow-bomb a section of Fairfax County with 4+" before the hours of white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Us Rockville-folk forget how March 5-6 somehow managed to snow-bomb a section of Fairfax County with 4+" before the hours of white rain. I don't forget. I just hate. It's ok though. I'll pretend I feel sorry for them in the snohole Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Us Rockville-folk forget how March 5-6 somehow managed to snow-bomb a section of Fairfax County with 4+" before the hours of white rain. Yes indeed... I think I ended up just short of 5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not to rub salt in the wounds but it's amazing how poorly you guys did. Terrible luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yes indeed... I think I ended up just short of 5" here I honestly don't even remember that event in isolation. I just know we got millimetered to death and it all added up to nearly half our normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS is marginal, drops .1"-.2" with very borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 And poof it goes on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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