Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

The Second Wave: Dec 10 (Model Discussion)


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

With all due respect...starting a thread because of a feel good happy hour threat is precarious at best. 

 

But I hope it FOOKIN happens. Semi all in till 0z. 

 

It's been there for a while as you know..18z GFS just went all medieval on it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's been there for a while as you know..18z GFS just went all medieval on it

 

Well, it has been there and we've commented on it but kind of in passing fashion at best. Now the gfs (18z of all runs) jacked it full of silver iodide. Threadworthy? I guess we've had worse ones...and I love tracking flurries anyway. Seriously. I do. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, it has been there and we've commented on it but kind of in passing fashion at best. Now the gfs (18z of all runs) jacked it full of silver iodide. Threadworthy? I guess we've had worse ones...and I love tracking flurries anyway. Seriously. I do. 

 

 

It has to start being there consistently.  This is the second day it has played peek-a-boo with us.  Sharp gradient for a wave to ride on and a lot can change

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has to start being there consistently.  This is the second day it has played peek-a-boo with us.  Sharp gradient for a wave to ride on and a lot can change

 

Sounds like you are close to goin all in. It will be a bonus after we finish shoveling 5" of 18z gfs droppings sunday evening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What you thinking for us northern folks? I feel so dumb being in this area and not knowing what to really expect

 

Just remember that you average almost twice as much snow as DCA (the point of reference for most mid-Atlantic posters and CWG articles) and that you'll be better off 99% of the time, unless something is suppressed.

 

Marginal events with mixing are your friend :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What you thinking for us northern folks? I feel so dumb being in this area and not knowing what to really expect

These next couple events are the sort in which you'll do well. I could easily see you getting 4 inches if DCA gets 1.

 

Being patient is sometimes hard. In these storms, huffwx will be reporting snow for hours before you even have flurries. It can be a little disheartening reading posts from people in southern and central VA talking about the back edge and under-perfoming before your snow even starts...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the main reason why I believe the tail end wave chances is what's going on tonight and tomorrow

there are 2 waves traveling up the front, the 1st giving snow to eastern Lakes/OH and the 2nd NE

so, if the SE ridge/gradient pattern can assist/contribute to 2 of these waves moving up the front to our west, then over us, it does sound reasonable that the SE ridge will continue its fight and give us some action as the front reaches the coast

that's my story and I'm sticking with it; anybody who says otherwise is full of CARP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree Mitch. In a typical setup the boundary would get pushed much further east after wave 2 but the h5 pattern is something we don't normally see. We fair a decent chance at still being in the path but I have some doubts about how much precip will be associated with it even if we bullseye. Still fun to watch and who knows. Maybe this is the year that things trend in our favor leading up. Kinda like 09-10 but 1/10th scale

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree Mitch. In a typical setup the boundary would get pushed much further east after wave 2 but the h5 pattern is something we don't normally see. We fair a decent chance at still being in the path but I have some doubts about how much precip will be associated with it even if we bullseye. Still fun to watch and who knows. Maybe this is the year that things trend in our favor leading up. Kinda like 09-10 but 1/10th scale

I'm only getting 7.5" this year. :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...