bluewave Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Local forecasters think that this could be one of the strongest storms in recent years there. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germans-prepare-for-violent-storm-on-thursday-a-937226.html Hurricane force wind gusts look like a good bet in that region as a piece of the polar vortex drops down triggering a deep storm for that area. it's very impressive to see 500 mb height anomalies dip below -500 meters. Dr. Masters has a post which includes storm surge forecasts for the region. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2592 A developing extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic, dubbed "Xaver" by the Free University of Berlin, is predicted to "bomb" into a potent storm with winds near hurricane force that will bring damaging winds and storm tides to the coasts of Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark on Thursday Observations link: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/EUR.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like explosive cyclogenesis is about to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looking at sat images, we're probably in stage two of bombogenesis right now. (image updates) More on rapid cyclogenesis can be found here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/wmovl/vrl/tutorials/satmanu-eumetsat/satmanu/cms/racy/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Might be a little early in the cyclone's life, but if it has a sting jet at the tip of the dry intrusion, northern Scotland is about to get raked. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/WV062/BW/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 North Sea oil platform gusting to 87 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 North Sea oil platform gusting to 87 mph. go.cgi.gif That's very impressive, especially at only 3 meters in altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 That's very impressive, especially at only 3 meters in altitude. Yeah, it's rare too see a level 3 on Estofex in that region for gusts to around 90 mph with potentially higher peak gusts. Gusting to 98mph at the North Sea oil platform last hour. http://www.estofex.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 From 00Z CMC analysis to the 06Z UKMET analysis, there was some very explosive deepening that took place. 17 mb/6 hr equates to 68 mb/day! Although it is not likely to keep up that rate of intensification, I'd say pressure may be pushing the 950s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Mid range modeling is showing a major storm for the UK around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It might not be the main attraction, but a pretty powerful storm is impacting Ireland right now (and as an added bonus, there's a Polar Low between Greenland and Iceland). The North Atlantic has been very active lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The low that went by Ireland has how moved to near Iceland. The UK analyzes this to be 941mb at 12z today. That's the lowest pressure I've seen in the Atlantic except for Sandy and other hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993 That was part of the record breaking +AO pattern in January 1993. 1993 1 1 2.898 1993 1 2 2.441 1993 1 3 2.081 1993 1 4 2.010 1993 1 5 2.761 1993 1 6 3.645 1993 1 7 3.836 1993 1 8 4.075 1993 1 9 4.579 1993 1 10 4.951 1993 1 11 5.055 1993 1 12 4.871 1993 1 13 4.739 1993 1 14 5.245 1993 1 15 5.100 1993 1 16 4.315 1993 1 17 3.539 1993 1 18 3.322 1993 1 19 3.742 1993 1 20 4.400 1993 1 21 4.919 1993 1 22 4.722 1993 1 23 3.192 1993 1 24 2.175 1993 1 25 1.517 1993 1 26 1.304 1993 1 27 1.442 1993 1 28 1.023 1993 1 29 1.394 1993 1 30 2.511 1993 1 31 2.696 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ryan Maue posted that the Euro forecasted a low to be down to 927mb in about that position in a few days (see Ryan Maue Twitter feed.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ryan Maue posted that the Euro forecasted a low to be down to 927mb in about that position in a few days (see Ryan Maue Twitter feed.) That's a very impressive storm for that location the the models are advertising. The vortex is forecast to be greater than a -500 meter anomaly along with a very intense surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lorenzo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 18z ensemble panel. Pretty extreme to say the least, not sure if this link holds the model run time frame, so may have moved forward in time if viewing at a later date. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=84 GEFS Mean One of the members, with a few more similar within. Unusually full on pattern, pretty amazing to watch unfold on Satellite, this link from yrno - Norwegian Met Office stitches together Eumetsat images and puts them in a nice animation. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html Relentless, and seemingly endless storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 The Euro and GFS have a -600 meter 500 mb anomaly now which would place it among the lowest that we have seen Near the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 This was from the 00Z ECMWF. It'll be interesting to see what the 12Z has. I'm thinking this could be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 474dm (4740 meters) near a civilized country. My mind just exploded thinking about the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Swiped these from Dr. Ryan Maue's twitter page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 The current model forecasts take this storm just NW of the 1884 storm which set the record for lowest UK pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Looks like it could be double trouble for the British Isles too. From the 06Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 sting jet signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Here it comes (frontal wave SW of Ireland)! (Still image) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The 12z Euro was ridiculous with a 953 mb low at 24 hrs, then phasing for a 928 mb low at 48 hrs, then a 939 mb low at 120 hrs followed by another sub-980 mb storm at 192-216 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 That's quite a baroclinic zone approaching upstream. I don't have my meteorology degree yet or anything, but figure it might help strengthen the storm a little bit. (also non-updating image) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The jet streak departing NE Canada has satellite measured winds well in excess of 200 kts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yeah that is a massive upper jet streak that is going to be providing extreme divergence aloft enhancing the rapid bombing of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Countdown to the Irish storm. I wonder if there will be 40 foot tall waves hitting Ireland. The WW3 wave model did show 14 meter waves (in some previous run that I looked at). In the graphics I'm looking at, the GFS only shows about 55 knot winds near NW Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 No wonder this storm is so deep, 12Z UKMET analysis had what was just slightly more mature than a frontal wave at 955 mb! I'm thinking 00Z analyses will be putting this very close to 930 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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