HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Commute issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's funny..cuz usually with WAA..you see those types of events speed up rather than slow down. Well that was usally inside 48-60 hrs. We are at the point now where models are still adusting timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 9z is 9am, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 9z is 9am, right? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 9z is 9am, right? 4am I think. Could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 9z is 9am, right? No, it's 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Pretty typical of these the dry slot is gonna move in fast. I've never seen a swfe that didn't move faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's very possible that the secondary becomes the main system sooner, NAM has a weak primary heading into the Great Lakes with a secondary forming east of DE by hour 84. Just something else to think about if it hasn't been done already. Nah, there are almost no mechanics in the deep layer supporting a full redevelopment in a Miller B model. What that is purely cyclonic curl for having a dense, viscous air mass over the coastal plain (CAD), and then having relatively less resistance to WAA over the immediate coastal waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Let's get a bit of snow down and keep it next week. It won't hold much beyond 12/15 IMHO but it's a nice start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Did anyone notice the 18z GFS tries to enhance additional QPF next late Tues/Wed?? It should be noted that there was a system plotted for that time frame when it was in the extend/late middle range -- it would be interesting if that came back on future guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Did anyone notice the 18z GFS tries to enhance additional QPF next late Tues/Wed?? It should be noted that there was a system plotted for that time frame when it was in the extend/late middle range -- it would be interesting if that came back on future guidance. The GFS loves those bogus waves riding the remnant boundary after a system moves up the coast, usually they don't happen and when they do they end up OTS because the prior storm pushes the thermal boundary well offshore, this I guess is one instance where perhaps it could occur because that stubborn SE ridge barely moves and thus the trof axis is perfectly setup for something to come riding up behind the Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Did anyone notice the 18z GFS tries to enhance additional QPF next late Tues/Wed?? It should be noted that there was a system plotted for that time frame when it was in the extend/late middle range -- it would be interesting if that came back on future guidance. Those secondary waves riding up the boundary just seem to work out so little of the time... but maybe this is the one time it actually happens, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Those secondary waves riding up the boundary just seem to work out so little of the time... but maybe this is the one time it actually happens, lol. 3/7/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Tip the secondary impulse is involved with the Polar Vortex energy. THis lobe of vorticity rounds the base of the PV trough and enhances vorticity southeast of the base. This brings a frontal wave through the baroclinic zone. It is also a time when the extended GFS brought a big storm through. And given the amount of energy and it goes right we could wind up with a much bigger storm, but these are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Tip the secondary impulse is involved with the Polar Vortex energy. THis lobe of vorticity rounds the base of the PV trough and enhances vorticity southeast of the base. This brings a frontal wave through the baroclinic zone. It is also a time when the extended GFS brought a big storm through. And given the amount of energy and it goes right we could wind up with a much bigger storm, but these are rare. This is an incorrect interpretation...the big vort with this system is advecting into Toronto here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is an incorrect interpretation...the big vort with this system is advecting into Toronto here ecvort.png I'm talking about the third shortwave or big area of energy instead, over Manitoba, Canada instead, off to the west of the center of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm talking about the third shortwave or big area of energy instead, over Manitoba, Canada instead, off to the west of the center of the PV. Oh are you referring to the Tue wave that the 18z gfs tried to develop? I thought you meant the "secondary" coastal low with the Sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Gfs (0Z/6) trying to send a triple point under us? Slower and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS is back to being very paltry through 12z monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS is back to being very paltry through 12z monday. The whole system is meh on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 The whole system is meh on the gfs. I'm riding the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm riding the Euro. Never a bad idea inside of d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS is back to being very paltry through 12z monday. Looks like garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 And then a cold day with some snow tuesdqy. Wtf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Last few runs have showed another impulse riding along the front as its slow to move offshore, SE ridge may have something to do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Words cannot express how much of a red flag it is to see the NAM at 78-84 hours have precip about 200 miles or more north of the GFS up the coast....10 of the 12 individual 12Z GFS ensemble members also showed precip way more north with 3-4 being significantly north, in some cases a few of the members had precip up to DXB/SWF/POU while theOp was down in ACY...again I don't think its dry air as I don't think the GFS is good enough to see that 84 hours out, my guess is its simply not grasping WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Words cannot express how much of a red flag it is to see the NAM at 78-84 hours have precip about 200 miles or more north of the GFS up the coast....10 of the 12 individual 12Z GFS ensemble members also showed precip way more north with 3-4 being significantly north, in some cases a few of the members had precip up to DXB/SWF/POU while theOp was down in ACY...again I don't think its dry air as I don't think the GFS is good enough to see that 84 hours out, my guess is its simply not grasping WAA. At this point, I'm pretty much ignoring the GFS until it gives a good reason to believe it. Euro has been pretty steady....the timing has varied a bit, but it hasn't had these weird runs where it it has virtually zero precip through 12z up here. 00z GGEM coming in stays the course of non-GFS solutions from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I just realized something. 12-9-05, 12-9-09, 12-9-13... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I just realized something. 12-9-05, 12-9-09, 12-9-13... What was 12/9/09? There was a KU 12/19 but I'm not aware of anything 12/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 What was 12/9/09? There was a KU 12/19 but I'm not aware of anything 12/9. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/pnsevents/Dec_09_2009/Dec_09_2009_BOXPNS.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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