It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Can someone help me out here. Isn't a faster moving system better? If it's a quick mover it allows less time to changeover, and by the time it does... Essentially all that's left is drizzle. I may be wrong This event is reminding me of an event that occurred right around the new year in 2009. We saw probably 5 or so inches or snow, then a little drizzle and the following days if I remember correctly were pretty darn cold. I'll do some research see if I can get specifics Better in what regards? More time for it to snow? Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Better in what regards? More time for it to snow? Rain? More time to snow, that's the perspective I look from. If it slows down that allows warm air to filter in correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Reason why I'm calling this a weak CAD event is because I don't see many IP/FZRA events occurring which is usually what occurs with these events. Well part of that reason is because it's in and out so darn quick. If this had a continued supply of srly flow aloft, it would turn into one over the interior. My guess is ORH and parts of SRN NH away from the coast never get to 32 until the actual cold front approaches and we mix a little bit from aloft. Believe it or not, the warmest temps in the interior sometimes come after the cold front passage because for an hour or two..you mix down the warmer temps aloft. Maybe a place like ASH goes to 34 and drizzle..tiny bit of -RA before fropa...but even the QPF in BOS is mostly SN. Might be a 34F snow right along the water for a time..but snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think you're misunderstanding. When I say weak CAD event I mean weak in regards to the impacts it will have. The signal is definitely there, I never said it wasn't. What you said above is likely the case as to why we won't get CAD-esque precip. I get what your saying its a fairly weak system with moderate qpf. The CAD will be there though. With that high position I could see the low levels temps outasting model 2mt especially in the interior. Mid levels will inevitably warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I will toast pretty quickly here Sun night with an east wind in Stamford to upper 30s, but that is par for the course. Really anyone north of the Merritt and especially CT river valley right on up through Mass should have no problem hanging onto the CAD air mass and staying mostly if not entirely frozen I believe..These lows are not strong, particularly the primary to really mix northward the warm air, and there is enough of a secondary reflection to keep the wind from raging SE..Your CT river valley should have no problem tilting that wind due north for an extended time into Mon morning.[/quote out if curiosity.....are you an in air met? I dint think there are any stations in stamfid, so I'm guessing your in some other area of net. sorry for the ot. I used to live in Stamford. Oysters every day.....oh wait a minute, that was LL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 More time to snow, that's the perspective I look from. If it slows down that allows warm air to filter in correct? It depends. Antecedent air masses play a huge rule in how precip pans out. You also have to remember that each time we get precip it's likely due to a frontal passage, all of which have their own characteristics. It's also important on where the frontal system is coming from (i.e. from the W/NW/SW/coast). In regards to a slower moving system, I immediately think of the Feb Blizzard, where we already had a cold air mass in place, then just a boat load of moisture which came from offshore in addition to a little system from the west. We also had a block to the north which stalled the speed of this system tremendously. This is one example but it shows that speed isn't everything on how a storm does/verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It depends. Antecedent air masses play a huge rule in how precip pans out. You also have to remember that each time we get precip it's likely due to a frontal passage, all of which have their own characteristics. It's also important on where the frontal system is coming from (i.e. from the W/NW/SW/coast). even though it might end up being negligble, if areas even get a little snow it could help. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i just looked at the euro more closely and it shows over 4" even here. no way that happens... not in these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah...I'm not going above freezing during precip on Monday. Even today the CAD is kicking MOS in the rear. CON is 34F right now while the 12Z MAV/MET had 41F/42F at 21Z respectively. The 18Z 4km NAM didn't even initialize cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i just looked at the euro more closely and it shows over 4" even here. no way that happens... not in these events 12/27/90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah...I'm not going above freezing during precip on Monday. Even today the CAD is kicking MOS in the rear. CON is 34F right now while the 12Z MAV/MET had 41F/42F at 21Z respectively. The 18Z 4km NAM didn't even initialize cold enough. Yeah forget it up your way. LOL. Even ORH is probably like 36 at worse after fropa or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I doubt anyone goes above freezing even post fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12/27/90[/size]stronger high and no primary cutting into michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 i just looked at the euro more closely and it shows over 4" even here. no way that happens... not in these events Let us know when you're not going to be a debbie downer.....oh wait, that's never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I doubt anyone goes above freezing even post fropa They will except maybe for MPM or something. You certainly will...it almost always happens this time of year in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah...I'm not going above freezing during precip on Monday. Even today the CAD is kicking MOS in the rear. CON is 34F right now while the 12Z MAV/MET had 41F/42F at 21Z respectively. The 18Z 4km NAM didn't even initialize cold enough. Pretty classic CAD even down here I just hit 37 with thickening fog. MOS hinted at it but as usual is nowhere near cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 I doubt anyone goes above freezing even post fropa When the airmass mixes out it will...it always jumps to like 36/21 or something...unless the fropa is really sharp, but this one isn't. We'll have a few hours to mix down relatively mild mid-level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Why there is an enNORmous population living in North Dakota ... ***** WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ***** CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS JAMESTOWN MOSUNNY -2 -8 76 W21G30 30.12R WCI -25 BISMARCK SUNNY -2 -11 65 W21G29 30.21R WCI -25 MINOT LGT SNOW -1 -8 72 W24 30.15R WCI -25 MINOT AFB LGT SNOW -1 -6 79 NW24 30.14S WCI -25 GARRISON N/A -5 -12 72 NW22G31 30.16S WCI -30 WILLISTON CLOUDY -3 -12 65 NW14 30.25R WCI -22 DICKINSON SUNNY -6 -15 65 W25 30.13S WCI -32 HETTINGER SUNNY -6 -14 68 W18G29 30.16R WCI -29 Seriously ... as the polar high leading into this thing is originating from that location and then moving into a position N of us, initially, I have no problem with the "intangible" of this thing breaking colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It may not happen this way, considering it is the Frankenmodel ... but, if there are any new matriculates to the weather blogosphere that are learning, and yet to truly understand what CAD (cold air "damning") is, and how to identify it... just use this pretty drawing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's very possible that the secondary becomes the main system sooner, NAM has a weak primary heading into the Great Lakes with a secondary forming east of DE by hour 84. Just something else to think about if it hasn't been done already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I've lived in Greenfield long enough now to know how this scenario plays out here. A nice moderate thump of snow followed by a few hours of freezing drizzle. Par for the course in early December. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18zGFS wetter now. Decent thump relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18z GFS has a secondary impulse of energy within the core of the trough over the ROckies diving down as our storm unfolds, I wonder what this energy could lead to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 18zGFS wetter now. Decent thump relatively speaking. It appears to dry us out faster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It appears to dry us out faster though. I expect this to be only like a 4-6 hr event to be honest. It may be a little -RA or DZ left over..but it's one of those events that will start in BOS at like 09z or something while the end of the slug of moisture is already approaching NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I expect this to be only like a 4-6 hr event to be honest. It may be a little -RA or DZ left over..but it's one of those events that will start in BOS at like 09z or something while the end of the slug of moisture is already approaching NYC. is it over before daybreak? or linger till mid morn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I expect this to be only like a 4-6 hr event to be honest. It may be a little -RA or DZ left over..but it's one of those events that will start in BOS at like 09z or something while the end of the slug of moisture is already approaching NYC. Pretty typical of these the dry slot is gonna move in fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not a terrible threat by any stretch, not a big threat overall, just a very weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 is it over before daybreak? or linger till mid morn? Proabably late morning. Seems like today's trend is to slow the onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Proabably late morning. Seems like today's trend is to slow the onset of precip. It's funny..cuz usually with WAA..you see those types of events speed up rather than slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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