weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS is trending towards weak sauce Get your arse back to dryslot...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&map=FZRA&sort=FINAL Quite a few freezing rain events at the top of the analogue lists based off the GFS 120 hr forecast. Something to keep an eye on. The #1 analog on the 96 hour panel is 12/27/90...I don't know what that did up in SNE but it surprised the hell out of us in NYC, we were expecting 1-3 inches and ended up with about 5-8 inches of overrunning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The #1 analog on the 96 hour panel is 12/27/90...I don't know what that did up in SNE but it surprised the hell out of us in NYC, we were expecting 1-3 inches and ended up with about 5-8 inches of overrunning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro is a bit colder than 12z...and a pretty nice thump too. Solid advisory snows for just about everyone along and N of HFD-PVD...maybe even a little south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro I'll take----with mucho caution at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro is basically in and out in 4-6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro is def colder than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro is basically in and out in 4-6 hrs. 2-4 for us per euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro is basically in and out in 4-6 hrs. Thump before any chance at changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thump before any chance at changeover. Probably the classic changeover to drizzle or freezinf drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm starting to debate if I want to come in Monday morning. It looks like a disaster commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm starting to debate if I want to come in Monday morning. It looks like a disaster commute. I do not envy you guys on that 495/93/128 commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm starting to debate if I want to come in Monday morning. It looks like a disaster commute. Not gonna mention it to her but I suspect my daughter gets a 2 hour delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm starting to debate if I want to come in Monday morning. It looks like a disaster commute. whats the timing on this one? overnight Sunday into monday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not gonna mention it to her but I suspect my daughter gets a 2 hour delay.Monday is a snow day for just about all of SNE . Already told kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 whats the timing on this one? overnight Sunday into monday morning? figure after 1am or so Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I do not envy you guys on that 495/93/128 commute. Scheduled to be off, but was gonna come in for overtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm starting to debate if I want to come in Monday morning. It looks like a disaster commute. Yeah it's going to be rough. At a mostly commuter school like bridgewater, I'd say school could be in serious jeaprody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah it's going to be rough. At a mostly commuter school like bridgewater, I'd say school could be in serious jeaprody Well for the amount that will fall and the fact it will be changing over there by 7am or so...they probably won't do anything. I think it's more the fact that it will be a headache commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well for the amount that will fall and the fact it will be changing over there by 7am or so...they probably won't do anything. I think it's more the fact that it will be a headache commute. Honestly, I hope it's not because it just screws up the finals schedule and what not. Do you have a possible frat guess for snowfall in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Honestly, I hope it's not because it just screws up the finals schedule and what not. Do you have a possible frat guess for snowfall in this area? Probably around 2" or so. First guess...plenty of time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Probably around 2" or so. First guess...plenty of time to change. Absolutely, will be nice however much falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 seems to be a weakening trend on some guidance with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS continues to be quite paltry...thats a few runs in a row now. Definitely in contrast to the Euro. GFS does keep trending colder, but the precip shield looks like it would be pretty raggedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 figure after 1am or so Sunday night. horrible timing for commuters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS continues to be quite paltry...thats a few runs in a row now. Definitely in contrast to the Euro. GFS does keep trending colder, but the precip shield looks like it would be pretty raggedy. yeah the lift is less than spectacular. it would probably be quite cold over the interior up by you...but it would kind of lessen the overall threat to the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I noticed the euro ensemble precip prob for 0.25" at BOS was rather low if you compare it to the op. Just noting. I wonder if the GFS is too weak though with the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It had bigger QPF when this was back in the middle range... I think part of the problem here is that the baroclinic axis is pressed out so far SE of the v-max track, so much so that it is stressing the vertical structure of the cyclone. The q- vector forcing is a bit too askew of the low and mid level frontal slopes (in the GFS), such that UVM is weaker. Less UVM --> less restoring jets --> less cyclogen. And we notice that not only is the QPF trending lower, the primary low is trending weaker and more open. Who knows if that is the way it will go down, but what I'm looking at is a v-max over Milwaukee WI, at 96 hours, and leading up to that, the frontal structures are very amorphous, and also the thermal packing is way down over the Gulf states -- systems don't usually engineer that way; they need to have mid level jet entrance regions to pass over lower lvl baroclinicity, and this whole structure on this thing is way way too tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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