Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah upon reflection it seems Freak was thinking of a strong coastal like Dec 92 when you flood the cp with warmth. In a situation like this , if you're on the coast and want frozen you want a weaker low allowing n drain Rereading Noyes it appears he is solely talking about the secondary reflection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That polar vortex up north of the Canadian/US border in the Canadian Prairies is the killer in this overall synoptic setup. It is too far west to support a colder more out to sea, or eastern solution therefore the primary low cuts through the lakes with a weak secondary component. This is nothing worse than a 3" snow followed by sleet, freezing rain and plain rain. yes plain rain is much worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 yes plain rain is much worse Definitely, it looks like the secondary wave along the frontal boundary forms a decent low along the front allowing snow to redevelop over the region from the GOM. Need to watch this secondary low developing along the front as at H5 there is a ton of energy involved with the polar vortex. One thing is for sure, its going to get down right cold next week across the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If the primary were to redevelop much faster into a strong secondary, then you'd also be colder.This is what I meant.Yeah upon reflection it seems Freak was thinking of a strong coastal like Dec 92 when you flood the cp with warmth. In a situation like this , if you're on the coast and want frozen you want a weaker low allowing n drainNot at all what I meant. I was thinking stronger secondary to keep stronger NE winds and keep the coastal plain colder.Rereading Noyes it appears he is solely talking about the secondary reflectionYeah if that's not what he was talking about than I mis-interpreted it. I thought he was talking secondary. Stronger secondary is better than a weak one. I can't imagine Noyes would write a weaker primary as being a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Noyes wasn't clear, but he was talking about the primary flooding warmer air aloft. 18z GFS is rather chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Definitely, it looks like the secondary wave along the frontal boundary forms a decent low along the front allowing snow to redevelop over the region from the GOM. Need to watch this secondary low developing along the front as at H5 there is a ton of energy involved with the polar vortex. One thing is for sure, its going to get down right cold next week across the northern plains. you're going to hurt your brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS with weenie follow up wave too. That's definitely not a common thing there so I'd be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS actually bring the low over the Cape. In any case, this will have limited deep lift and RH. The onset of snow and dryslot may be 5 hrs apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS with weenie follow up wave too. That's definitely not a common thing there so I'd be skeptical. overall...i'd bet against it....but it's interesting as that general theme has been there on/off for days. even some of the GFS runs that had this general time period pegged when it was in that 10+ range iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is what I meant. Not at all what I meant. I was thinking stronger secondary to keep stronger NE winds and keep the coastal plain colder. Yeah if that's not what he was talking about than I mis-interpreted it. I thought he was talking secondary. Stronger secondary is better than a weak one. Only if it tracks well..you can have a stronger secondary forming near LI and that would actually make it warmer (esp for eastern areas) versus a weak strung out sfc reflection that is southeast of LI...the track matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 you're going to hurt your brain. Like Scott said, I'm skeptical given its inconsistency with this feature. However given the amount of energy present it needs to go somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 overall...i'd bet against it....but it's interesting as that general theme has been there on/off for days. even some of the GFS runs that had this general time period pegged when it was in that 10+ range iirc. The 12z GGEM has something similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS actually bring the low over the Cape. In any case, this will have limited deep lift and RH. The onset of snow and dryslot may be 5 hrs apart. GFS is sort of meh though with the lift so weak. I'd rather a more solid shot of forcing and a good period of thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Only if it tracks well..you can have a stronger secondary forming near LI and that would actually make it warmer (esp for eastern areas) versus a weak strung out sfc reflection that is southeast of LI...the track matters. Ahh I guess that's true. I was thinking of something tracking east of BOS or over the Cape into Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Regarding the f/u wave...pretty uncommon. Bi remember Bob Copeland talking about a "tertiary" once and even as a 22 yo weenie I yelled bullshiat at the tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&map=FZRA&sort=FINAL Quite a few freezing rain events at the top of the analogue lists based off the GFS 120 hr forecast. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&map=FZRA&sort=FINAL Quite a few freezing rain events at the top of the analogue lists based off the GFS 120 hr forecast. Something to keep an eye on. That's a cool site. What is the algorithm behind this i.e. how does it know what patterns were similar based upon past model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That's a cool site. What is the algorithm behind this i.e. how does it know what patterns were similar based upon past model runs? http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Not sure if this is what you mean......but this is a chart detailing how it comes up with the rank of analogues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 that site is awesome http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&map=FZRA&sort=FINAL Quite a few freezing rain events at the top of the analogue lists based off the GFS 120 hr forecast. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That's a cool site. What is the algorithm behind this i.e. how does it know what patterns were similar based upon past model runs? It uses some type of pattern/anomaly correlation to rank how similar each field (height, temperature, moisture at different levels) from the model forecast is with each date in the NARR dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It uses some type of pattern/anomaly correlation to rank how similar each field (height, temperature, moisture at different levels) from the model forecast is with each date in the NARR dataset. So what you're saying is this site displays model initializations from various years that correlate closely to the 12/04/13 120 hour GFS? If so that's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 So what you're saying is this site displays model initializations from various years that correlate closely to the 12/04/13 120 hour GFS? If so that's crazy. It's been around a few years now...it's a pretty cool tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Its the CIPS analog tool...the funny thing is I used to go back and use the NARR site from like 2006-2009 before this tool came out...I'd try and think of past similar systems and look and see just how similar they were, lol. I was pretty sick. This tool makes it way easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It would be nicer if they could use the entire US pattern for CIPS because sometimes breaking into sectors seems to make it less accurate. Right now its clueless on the SRN Plains event showing virtually no analog events that produce snow or ice in AR or OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 It would be nicer if they could use the entire US pattern for CIPS because sometimes breaking into sectors seems to make it less accurate. Right now its clueless on the SRN Plains event showing virtually no analog events that produce snow or ice in AR or OK. I agree. They should have a CONUS option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS still has a rather meager front end on this thing. Started out pretty chilly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 00z GFS staying consistent it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS still has a rather meager front end on this thing. Started out pretty chilly though. Yeah its almost like the high is so strong this run, it eats the precip shiled up before it comes in while its cold enough aloft. But I think I like that trend...rather than worry about QPF, I'll take the stronger damming. The QPF will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah its almost like the high is so strong this run, it eats the precip shiled up before it comes in while its cold enough aloft. But I think I like that trend...rather than worry about QPF, I'll take the stronger damming. The QPF will be there. Yeah the damming signal is strong which bodes well for the interior for sure. I just wonder how much dynamics will this push have. For my selfish reasons, I like to see a good front end on this thing, but the euro was definitely juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS is trending towards weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.