CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yeah...sucks that the euro has been steadfast in keeping that way south. ecens are south again too. Euro actually brings some -SN in here Tuesday afternoon from the shortwave that sharpens and swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yeah...sucks that the euro has been steadfast in keeping that way south. ecens are south again too. Euro was atrocious today in NJ from what I could see...and like I said it's had some miserable moments in that system last week that missed. Not a lock this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Congrats to Philly and mid atlantic snow weenies for a real december gift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm surprised BTV is going with absolutely no mixing here and 3-5" of snow. The 18z NAM gives me like 0.1" of QPF, lol. Tonight: Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around 16. Light and variable winds... Becoming south around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent.Monday: Snow. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro was atrocious today in NJ from what I could see...and like I said it's had some miserable moments in that system last week that missed. Not a lock this year Unfortunately the NAM is even worse, lol. As far as today, I think all models were atrocious. No one had 4-8" in Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm surprised BTV is going with absolutely no mixing here and 3-5" of snow. The 18z NAM gives me like 0.1" of QPF, lol. Tonight: Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around 16. Light and variable winds... Becoming south around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent. Monday: Snow. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. How bout btv wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro was atrocious today in NJ from what I could see...and like I said it's had some miserable moments in that system last week that missed. Not a lock this year Yeah it's busted pretty bad recently. The nam isn't much better, but just because the euro doesn't show it, i don't think that means much to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro was atrocious today in NJ from what I could see...and like I said it's had some miserable moments in that system last week that missed. Not a lock this yearIt missed a weenie meso band. It's always missed the deformation bands in our coastals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm surprised BTV is going with absolutely no mixing here and 3-5" of snow. The 18z NAM gives me like 0.1" of QPF, lol. Tonight: Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around 16. Light and variable winds... Becoming south around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent. Monday: Snow. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Meterology not modelogy. Still totally impressed with how Snow Goose sniffed that band out. Good lesson to me. NAM frontogenesis page had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro actually brings some -SN in here Tuesday afternoon from the shortwave that sharpens and swings through.Yeah...I'd expect some SHSN with that, but the NAM is bonkers with that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Meterology not modelogy. Still totally impressed with how Snow Goose sniffed that band out. Good lesson to me. NAM frontogenesis page had it. These events frequently have them... never an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yeah...I'd expect some SHSN with that, but the NAM is bonkers with that wave. Almost a 200 knot jet streak over Maine... so some solid forcing in the right entrance region. Will depend how quickly the moisture scoots offshore I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 These events frequently have them... never an easy forecast.absolutely, just yet another reason I am obsessed with weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 absolutely, just yet another reason I am obsessed with weather. A lot of times you get a fluff band over like Albany or something from this kind of setup on the northern fringe... to get it in PHL is pretty noteworthy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 How bout btv wrf I still think it comes down to the dry air in the snow growth region as Oceanstwx has been hammering home. If you're getting needles, rimed pellets or any other type of non-efficient accumulator, we are going to need some solid QPF to get to 3-5" of snow at less than 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 How bout btv wrf It looks really odd, haha. Very light QPF event outside of the orographics where the model is going batsh*t crazy. It has no measurable precipitation in Montpelier for the event. Is that a red flag? who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It missed a weenie meso band. It's always missed the deformation bands in our coastals too. Since it wasn't my forecast period I never checked, but I'm curious if the hi-res Euro (13km) had the weenie band. Sometimes the 80 km can wash that stuff out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Hype could be utilized and none to be found. Love these over performers in that even if they don't verify, fun to watch Holy Crap the PATS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Since it wasn't my forecast period I never checked, but I'm curious if the hi-res Euro (13km) had the weenie band. Sometimes the 80 km can wash that stuff out. It didn't - though it did have a bit of snow as the s/w swings through... a couple hundreths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z GFS looks west already at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z GFS looks west already at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I like OceanStWx rants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z NAM has stronger lift in the snow growth zone, but its a little elevated for dendrite growth, so it might be a little less than ideal for the best kind of accumulating snows. Still some time left. 18z GFS wasn't all the way west for us to get in the best lift, but within 48 hours it tends to drift west some before settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z GFS is juicy for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks like people around New York are pleasantly surprised. Does that translate to anything for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z GFS is juicy for Tuesday. The plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z GFS is juicy for Tuesday. We need one of these trailing systems to produce. Maybe this will be our turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The plot thickens South of the pike win. Isn't south of the Pike the mid-Atlantic anyway? MA winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z GFS is juicy for Tuesday.can't wait to we see James' new degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 18z GFS is juicy for Tuesday. Would be a nice little snow event out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.