OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Even 3-5" down here? I'm struggling to find a model that shows 2". Our official forecast is a pixel or two away from being 3.8" for you. I think the graphic on the winter weather page for our office should be updated now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'll have to find it, but there were hints at the band overperforming yesterday, but not to this extent. It's not an easy call with this setup to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Lol if that happens I'll buy a new sweater for the dog and pooper scooper for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Well to be fair, we're talking about one mesoscale feature. Other than HRR....did other models sniff this out? its lower resolution is a weakness in the close range. but these progressive swfe are tough to nail so Im not hating on any model or forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Weird, what's the gang's reasoning for the bump? That we're not warm enough aloft for FZRA. So it should be all IP/SN. I have no idea where the QPF came from though. I protested about the column and FZDZ but I guess that fell on deaf ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That we're not warm enough aloft for FZRA. So it should be all IP/SN. I have no idea where the QPF came from though. I protested about the column and FZDZ but I guess that fell on deaf ears. Ekster doesn't like to listen. But he can flip a mean bottle cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Keep in mind the problem with ranges, but that is a lot of near 4" amounts for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That may be the most epic NFL highlight for a snow lover, haha. Not sure if this is the thread for it, but it is the Dec 9th threat... with Fox saying 6-8" on the field, does anyone know what the most snow on a field during an NFL game is? I'm sure there's some lake effect or mid-west blizzard with a foot or more, but just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That we're not warm enough aloft for FZRA. So it should be all IP/SN. I have no idea where the QPF came from though. I protested about the column and FZDZ but I guess that fell on deaf ears. Ekster must be on short term... what a terrible forecaster!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Ekster doesn't like to listen. But he can flip a mean bottle cap Buy him a beer and he'll forecast whatever you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Keep in mind the problem with ranges, but that is a lot of near 4" amounts for my liking. StormTotalSnowFcst_1208132018.png So go with the lower numbers on the map there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That we're not warm enough aloft for FZRA. So it should be all IP/SN. I have no idea where the QPF came from though. I protested about the column and FZDZ but I guess that fell on deaf ears. Interesting, yeah not sure about magic QPF but certainly good to have your input. Although you'd probably have been interrogated about the forecast if you didn't say so ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 So go with the lower numbers on the map there? I feel the best about the forecast numbers in your area. I think around 2" covers it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That we're not warm enough aloft for FZRA. So it should be all IP/SN. I have no idea where the QPF came from though. I protested about the column and FZDZ but I guess that fell on deaf ears. Here's BTV's map... they stated in a AFD earlier today (maybe the early morning one) that it wasn't warm enough aloft for FZRN (needed 2-3C for that). I would take probably 1.5" off these totals if it were me personally, but BTV does a fantastic job forecasting IMO, so let it ride. I don't think we see near 4" here though (3.9" in MVL) with this QPF and not favorable snow growth. They do state on Facebook that they boosted totals along the Spine and east because of the upslope component with strong SE H85 flow. Sounds like they think that area will be wetter than models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I think I'm just having an office meltdown. I hate to spend several days on a system to see it wiped out by one shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I feel the best about the forecast numbers in your area. I think around 2" covers it there.Thanks. The .6" from the other day will be a great base for the next 1.3" hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Box has 1-2 here...... Hopeful, but having my doubts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Here's BTV's map... they stated in a AFD earlier today (maybe the early morning one) that it wasn't warm enough aloft for FZRN (needed 2-3C for that). I would take probably 1.5" off these totals if it were me personally, but BTV does a fantastic job forecasting IMO, so let it ride. I don't think we see near 4" here though (3.9" in MVL) with this QPF and not favorable snow growth. They do state on Facebook that they boosted totals along the Spine and east because of the upslope component with strong SE H85 flow. Sounds like they think that area will be wetter than models show. There will some upslope component for sure. My problem is that I just don't see where we are generating a really solid snowflake in the column. I don't think 12 hours of snow grains is going to amount to much. And I agree that we don't have a mechanism for true FZRA. You would need an ice crystal to melt and freeze on contact. If you never have a crystal to start you won't get FZRA. Maybe collision/coalescence could get a shower going that would freeze on contact, but more than likely we have drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Buy him a beer and he'll forecast whatever you want. True statement right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is pretty robust with that follow-up wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 There will some upslope component for sure. My problem is that I just don't see where we are generating a really solid snowflake in the column. I don't think 12 hours of snow grains is going to amount to much. And I agree that we don't have a mechanism for true FZRA. You would need an ice crystal to melt and freeze on contact. If you never have a crystal to start you won't get FZRA. Maybe collision/coalescence could get a shower going that would freeze on contact, but more than likely we have drizzle. It'll be interesting, the advisory is for 3-5" of snow and sleet. I am just more worried about the QPF much less the snow growth issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is pretty robust with that follow-up wave. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is pretty robust with that follow-up wave. That would be very nice on the Cape and SE MA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Congrats to Philly and mid atlantic snow weenies for a real december gift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Flurries have started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That would be very nice on the Cape and SE MA.... That's just what we need, southeast ma special. Doubt that wave happens, but interesting that it is still showing up on models this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is pretty robust with that follow-up wave.Dr James our new tagger? Scooter will look good with a member tag, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM is pretty robust with that follow-up wave.Yeah...sucks that the euro has been steadfast in keeping that way south. ecens are south again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Cease and desist on all nam use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Flurries have started here.congrats, start an obs thread, it's time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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