OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Lol....sometimes that WAA/ML fronto can totally fool the models. (and forecasters too) Not always easy to forecast these. I imagine a bit of shell shock when the mid shift wakes up to 8" of driveway cement to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 someone posted a pic from Leisuretowne, NJ of almost 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 1 inch or so from what I saw-horrific but great bust for them Shame that won't translate up here...but what are you gonna do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 We'll have to watch that 2nd punch of isentropic lift with a little ML fronto that comes in later tonight for us from W PA....the models have done horrifically with this front running stuff. Euro coming out now has less than 0.05 of qpf north of Baltimore between 12z and 18z today...already busted. That stuff slides south of us but the next round could perhaps give us some little bands of heavier snow if we are lucky. We were talking about that earlier. It might not have much push north but sometimes that stronger WAA aloft can fire up snow further north. Two weenie-esque posts from two of the most respected voices--and voices of reason--on the board. Skys are clearing here after heavy overcast all the rest of the day, ftl. 25.1/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That band dropped this airport to 0.15 mile vis: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KVAY.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Lol....sometimes that WAA/ML fronto can totally fool the models. (and forecasters too) Not always easy to forecast these. I will say though, morning HRRR threw a warning flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 I will say though, morning HRRR threw a warning flag. Wow, that's pretty good by the HRRR...sometimes it can be awful, but that forecast hit the band almost spot-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Wow, that's pretty good by the HRRR...sometimes it can be awful, but that forecast hit the band almost spot-on. I'm not always one to bite on the QPF related fields, but sometimes it really nails the mesoscale. At least it would have forced you to consider there being a band of fgen somewhere this afternoon that required a little more diagnosis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Just to clarify , what stuff in W Pa? There's almost nothing falling out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Just to clarify , what stuff in W Pa? There's almost nothing falling out there???I see light snow obs from Akron, oh east to PIT and UNV and most places in between. Obviously it's not what they're seeing in Philly...but looks like obs mostly match up with the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 ??? I see light snow obs from Akron, oh east to PIT and UNV and most places in between. Obviously it's not what they're seeing in Philly...but looks like obs mostly match up with the radar. Maybe the radar I looked at wasn't doing it justice , but I didn't see much there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Maybe the radar I looked at wasn't doing it justice , but I didn't see much there Well its tapering off in PIT now…but maybe you were eyeballing the lighter echos in far northern PA and W NY? That indeed doesn't seem to be producing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 ??? I see light snow obs from Akron, oh east to PIT and UNV and most places in between. Obviously it's not what they're seeing in Philly...but looks like obs mostly match up with the radar. Looks pretty meager. But, hey, I'll take any flakes I can get. Sunny with many blue patches overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 hmmmm....nws increasing snow amounts in NYC metro. the wife makes the commute to Stamford tomorrow morning....looks like ice concerns on I84 then 8 through the higher terrain of Beacon Falls/Oxford/Seymour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Well its tapering off in PIT now…but maybe you were eyeballing the lighter echos in far northern PA and W NY? That indeed doesn't seem to be producing much.Yeah that's where I was looking and where they were saying our wx was coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Folks thoughts.....advisory cancel with the 4:00p.m. package? thansk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 After thick high clouds all day its cleared out nicely here in Central NH. My Dad just north of Baltimore is a bit angry at me since I never gave him warning of how much and how hard it was going to snow today. I busted on the forecast up here 2 days ago telling everyone that we were going to get 1-2" and we got nothing so kept my mouth shut with this one and he's getting dumped on. 6" of unforecasted snow is like a foot of unforecasted snow for SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yeah that's where I was looking and where they were saying our wx was coming from Ah okay. Yeah there's two batches…the more healthy looking batch now moving into central PA…that's the stuff that skirts us down here on the shoreline. Then there's the weaker stuff that's more into western NY now that will move over N CT and MA. Neither batch looks terribly exciting…but that southern batch may at least whiten the ground for us down here. Hoping for the first measurable of the year. Your batch may just drop some flurries. But at least we've had plenty of time to lower expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Folks thoughts.....advisory cancel with the 4:00p.m. package? thansk. They may keep it for the freezing drizzle threat tomorrow morning. Lord knows it's not needed for the snow flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Just to clarify , what stuff in W Pa? There's almost nothing falling out there Exactly - when we're only expecting 0.1" or so of QPF in some areas that's what the radar looks like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Folks thoughts.....advisory cancel with the 4:00p.m. package? thansk. Why? The advisory was issued for ZR not for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 10 inches in Vorhees , NJ and plenty more to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 They may keep it for the freezing drizzle threat tomorrow morning. Lord knows it's not needed for the snow flurries. I was surprised they had reissued it at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Happy for those guys, but tough to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 My wife's sister and her family live in northern DE…just saw a pic…looks like a solid 5-6" down there. Flakes reported as far north as Staten Island and south shore LI: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Shades of '09-'10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Shades of '09-'10...Well except that winter had a severely -NAO and featured Supression of monster coastals. But other than that sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Shades of '09-'10... eh…let 'em have one. they haven't had much since that epic year. Watching an early season surprise 4-8" band certainly not as frustrating as watching back to back KU's bury them alive in mid-winter while we're sunny and 20 degrees with bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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