Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Kevin, if you wouldn't presume snow cover 11/15-3/15 your expectations wouldn't create such frustration. Seriously stay the course. 1993 had a huge prolonged warm period in December before the hammer. Too bad we didn't have the internet to see the meltodwns. what was amazing about that season is that 5 day forecasts 2-3 days out had warmth warmth warmth and then all the sudden around 12/27, the hammer dropped...the rest is history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What? I'm talking about Monday Look at the post you responded to and quoted and your post. What else should I presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I admit I thought we were heading for something similar. and now Mondays system is tanking. seems like these are trending towards fizzling out for us but they are producing pretty well in the south MW for sure. Well who knows..it could still be like that down the road..or maybe 15-20". Despite some frustrations and I do understand why....I still think this month holds promise based on how the pattern looks and previous similar setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Let's root on our DC friends who have had 4 inches total the last 2 years combined.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Look at the post you responded to and quoted and your post. What else should I presume? I knew what he was referring too...but then again, I know Kevin like the back of my pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It should also be noted, this is not the only storm chance in this pattern....you had just started posting back then, but you might remember the freakouts after the ice storm in 2008 (which of course didn't hit everyone here) when we had that torch and the 12/19 event hadn't appeared on the models yet except as a cutter in clown range on the Euro. We had a day or two of meltdowns. Its early still...and this 12/9 system may still be pretty wintry. This is exactly what I was trying to convey....even were 2007 and 2008 to walk through that door, it wouldn't be for another week or two. Additionally, favorable gradient patterns can evolve from rather underwhelming modeled patterns, and vice versa because they aren't representative of our prototypical snow patterns, and are thus rife with synoptic flaws. Gradient patterns are never pretty, and you're always "living on the edge", so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well who knows..it could still be like that down the road..or maybe 15-20". Despite some frustrations and I do understand why....I still think this month holds promise based on how the pattern looks and previous similar setups. the good thing is that the relaxation or warmth concerns seem to have fizzled a bit lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Kevin, if you wouldn't presume snow cover 11/15-3/15 your expectations wouldn't create such frustration. Seriously stay the course. 1993 had a huge prolonged warm period in December before the hammer. Too bad we didn't have the internet to see the meltodwns.who is having a meltdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 In general in every winter I've been alive for, the cold has to set in first, the. The snow comes. We have the window this week through about 12/17 I'd say before the next likely relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 who is having a meltdown? Many did in 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Many did in 1993.I was just hoping for a little snowcover next week and we've lost any shot at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I was just hoping for a little snowcover next week and we've lost any shot at that Id settle for an inch or two of hard packed crunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 the good thing is that the relaxation or warmth concerns seem to have fizzled a bit lately? Well we do lose the dateline ridging..the mega amplitude anyways..but there is another ridge developing in the EPAC. This may try to teleconnect to a trough in the Plains and some SE ridging, but it also helps keep the possibility of more cold dumping down from Canada. We also may see the MJO move into more favorable phases towards Christmas, but we all know how bad MJO forecasting can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I was just hoping for a little snowcover next week and we've lost any shot at that I'm not sure of that but like others I normally don't get antsy until mid December. So much work to do before everyone puts the snooze button on from 12/20-1/5 roughly that there's a plus to going about my business unimpeded. Don't get me wrong, I would thrill on some snow but so much stuff going on I can deal without it for a other week or 2. Weekend of the 20th my wife and I are heading to our favorite pre child b&b in southern VT. I'm hoping its wintry then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Dude there's no Qpf.. Almost none I'm sorry......did someone take over my posting? 32.1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Kevin, if you wouldn't presume snow cover 11/15-3/15 your expectations wouldn't create such frustration. Seriously stay the course. 1993 had a huge prolonged warm period in December before the hammer. Too bad we didn't have the internet to see the meltodwns. Sne snow climo on the cp tends to be more dissapointing then rewarding. We remember the good years and try to fantasize back on them, then we end up just deluding ourselves into remembering this place as snowier than it really is, The bottom line is sne winters esp near coastal plain are chalk full of despair and suffering , so cheer up. Anyone hoping for wall to wall anything is placing a horrible bet w their future emotions....unless of course your willing to get away to NNE where it is likely to "look like winter" at least most weekends from dec to march ahhhh the whites and greens at elevation, a snow /winter lovers heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sne snow climo on the cp tends to be more dissapointing then rewarding. We remember the good years and try to fantasize back on them, then we end up just deluding ourselves into remembering this place as snowier than it really is, The bottom line is sne winters esp near coastal plain are chalk full of despair and suffering , so cheer up. Anyone hoping for wall to wall anything is placing a horrible bet w their future emotions....unless of course your willing to get away to NNE where it is likely to "look like winter" at least most weekends from dec to march ahhhh the whites and greens at elevation, a snow /winter lovers heaven People can sometimes have unrealistic expectations, but climo says most of SNE gets less than 50 inches of snow and has snow cover for less than 60 days a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Meanwhile back at the ranch, 18Z/7 NAM gives most of us 1-2, spot 3. I'll take any amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Meanwhile back at the ranch, 18Z/7 NAM gives most of us 1-2, spot 3. I'll take any amount. The Euro had close to zilch except maybe a coating down this way....NAM waffles back and forth....keeps it interesting at least with the NAM back in the game for at least another 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong but it appears that the bulk of any precipitation would occur late Monday AM through early Monday PM rather than Sunday night into Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM looks awful in the mid levels. Look at the 850 winds, the LLJ splits and peels east and NW of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM looks awful in the mid levels. Look at the 850 winds, the LLJ splits and peels east and NW of SNE. But the follow up wave is worth watching!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 But the follow up wave is worth watching!!!!!!!!!!!! If that happens, I'll give my degree to James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM looks awful in the mid levels. Look at the 850 winds, the LLJ splits and peels east and NW of SNE. Stick a fork in this one, precip's (if we get any at all) is not heavy enough to do anything...mood flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 As maddening as this pattern of arctic chill, and cutters interspersed has been, one must not lose sight of the fact that we are still in the first half of December.....which climatologically speaking, blows for snow around here: Snowfall through 12/12/07 imby....5" (Monthly total- 33.5") Snowfall through 12/16/08....T (Monthly total- 31") Snowfall through 12/19/10....T (Monthly total- 15") Wow, those are some nice recoveries in 07 and 08! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 If that happens, I'll give my degree to James. No need Scott, I'm just watching the models, it looks like the threat may be squashing away as clipper pulverizes it instead of amplifying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 EVALUATING LIFT...THERE APPEARS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF JET DYNAMICS/RIGHT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET/ AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT/WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND NO JET COUPLING WITH SURFACE FEATURES/.IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORCING IS PER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW- TOMID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE LINGERING COLD AIR DOME ASSOCIATEDWITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 A December to remember! Most Decembers/Novembers aren't this cold. We don't get much snow in the cp because of temps not because it's cold and dry most of the time and then storms fall apart or torch. Plenty of time left and eventually things will break right. The watched pot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Didn't read through previous posts but this event Monday looks horrible. KBOS may see an inch if they're lucky. It appears to be one of those events that will spit flakes in the wee hours of the morning and then flip shortly after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 A couple of years with very early season snows moved everyone's timeframes up. We are really just heading into winter now and everyone's patience is shot. Hopefully the 9th works out I would argue that this year the bigger thing fueling any unrest is that the cold air has been in New England, but it still hasn't had a widespread snow yet. We had a solidly below normal November, and appear to have more arctic chill moving in. It just goes to show that cold anomalies won't bring the snow if the pattern isn't there. Its not often we'll get a -2F to -4F type November and continuing into early December without some sort of widespread early season snow. Its like folks won't usually expect a widespread winter threat prior to Dec 7 or Dec 14, but if we are hammering in cold anomalies that perspective changes some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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