OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 May even start out as freezing rain. It's better for SNE, but up here we may just have hours of FZDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Awesome. Brown ground and temps in the teens next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 That's not it necessarily. We need more potent systems. This one blew its cookies in the west and SW and it appears energy is limited when it nears our neighborhood. We know that poor Atlantics but good Pacifics have often produced great swfe snows but this one doesn't appear to be in the cards. Still very early though......and man it's going to be cold this week! Yep, we've outlined many analog patterns and systems within this type of pattern that produce 10" snowfalls in Boston...did people already forget 2007 and 2008 with a hostile Atlantic? I think so many have gotten caught up in the small sample size of one system petering out as it approaches us that I'm now reading blanket statements that are completely unfounded. If gradient patterns produced every single time, then Boston would average 70" of snow per year. Same with KU patterns...last January when we had a few sheared out systems, a lot of conclusions were being jumped to despite the pattern really not being all that bad for good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yep, we've outlined many analog patterns and systems within this type of pattern that produce 10" snowfalls in Boston...did people already forget 2007 and 2008 with a hostile Atlantic? I think so many have gotten caught up in the small sample size of one system petering out as it approaches us that I'm now reading blanket statements that are completely unfounded. If gradient patterns produced every single time, then Boston would average 70" of snow per year. Same with KU patterns...last January when we had a few sheared out systems, a lot of conclusions were being jumped to despite the pattern really not being all that bad for good storms. I think that's the most frustrating part. We've outlined what a gradient pattern is and how it can and cannot produce sometimes...but it's as if people just ignored the caveats and only heard the term snow. Sorry guys, sometimes December 2007 and 2008 don't always walk through that door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Awesome. Brown ground and temps in the teens next week School uncancel, kids pissed at Dad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Will what does the EURO look like for the secondary frontal wave for Dec 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gfs gets a win it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 As maddening as this pattern of arctic chill, and cutters interspersed has been, one must not lose sight of the fact that we are still in the first half of December.....which climatologically speaking, blows for snow around here: Snowfall through 12/12/07 imby....5" (Monthly total- 33.5") Snowfall through 12/16/08....T (Monthly total- 31") Snowfall through 12/19/10....T (Monthly total- 15") Take a chill pill, and get some shopping down......find a weenie place erect atop the xmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 School uncancel, kids pissed at DadYup. Flurries. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think its better than it used to be inside of 72 hours but I tend to trust the GFS inside of 84 or 72 if it has a similar solution to its ensembles and the GEM agrees with it while the Euro shows something different. The Euro's biggest decline the last several years has been in the 7-10 day range, Days 4-6 I still think it blows the GFS away but it seems it has had problems with trying to break down or change patterns Days 7-10 and that its bias of overdigging in the SW has actually worsened, for that reason it constantly shows cutters all over the place in this range, I've seen it show cutters here with a raging -NAO on occasion, it never used to do that prior to its 2008 or 2009 upgrade. Interesting thanks... did they think the upgrade actually upgraded? Like couldnt they have tested pre upgrade vs post upgrade verification scores in certain ranges to figure out if the upgrade actually helped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Using relatively recent climo as an indicator, we still have a good week or two before the month really starts being jeopardized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think that's the most frustrating part. We've outlined what a gradient pattern is and how it can and cannot produce sometimes...but it's as if people just ignored the caveats and only heard the term snow. Sorry guys, sometimes December 2007 and 2008 don't always walk through that door. It should also be noted, this is not the only storm chance in this pattern....you had just started posting back then, but you might remember the freakouts after the ice storm in 2008 (which of course didn't hit everyone here) when we had that torch and the 12/19 event hadn't appeared on the models yet except as a cutter in clown range on the Euro. We had a day or two of meltdowns. Its early still...and this 12/9 system may still be pretty wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yup. Flurries. Awesome Lesson: Don't tell the kids til it's a lock. I my case I don't tell her till it happens because she'll find a way to stay up way too late just in case there's school. Your daughters are younger so that's less of a issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It should also be noted, this is not the only storm chance in this pattern....you had just started posting back then, but you might remember the freakouts after the ice storm in 2008 (which of course didn't hit everyone here) when we had that torch and the 12/19 event hadn't appeared on the models yet except as a cutter in clown range on the Euro. We had a day or two of meltdowns. Its early still...and this 12/9 system may still be pretty wintry. Dude there's no Qpf.. Almost none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It should also be noted, this is not the only storm chance in this pattern....you had just started posting back then, but you might remember the freakouts after the ice storm in 2008 (which of course didn't hit everyone here) when we had that torch and the 12/19 event hadn't appeared on the models yet except as a cutter in clown range on the Euro. We had a day or two of meltdowns. Its early still...and this 12/9 system may still be pretty wintry. I remember the meltdowns...I remember some angst in 2007 too regarding the Atlantic. It's definitely early...I'm not saying this month will stink....I'm just saying some people have visions of 2007 and 2008 working out...but it doesn't always work like that. FWIW, I;m still intrigued about this month and the pattern down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Will what does the EURO look like for the secondary frontal wave for Dec 10th? It says, "what wave?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 Dude there's no Qpf.. Almost none An inch or two of snow and glaze is pretty wintry...guess its just how you define it. I'm not impatient this early in the season...not every event has to be 6" of snow for me to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Using relatively recent climo as an indicator, we still have a good week or two before the month really starts being jeopardized.YupDec 15 is usually when I think things normally start to produce This is just 1 little event. I am not throwing in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It says, "what wave?" Damn, I knew not to get my hopes up, which I didn't, it would be nice to see the GFS show something with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Dude there's no Qpf.. Almost none Big 4 ....first 6 days of December: BOS: 0.58 BDL: 0.61 PVD: 1.10 ORH: 0.63 Post from facts, not frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I remember the meltdowns...I remember some angst in 2007 too regarding the Atlantic. It's definitely early...I'm not saying this month will stink....I'm just saying some people have visions of 2007 and 2008 working out...but it doesn't always work like that. FWIW, I;m still intrigued about this month and the pattern down the road. I admit I thought we were heading for something similar. and now Mondays system is tanking. seems like these are trending towards fizzling out for us but they are producing pretty well in the south MW for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Last fall and early winter were bone dry...considerably moreso than now. You know the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 I remember the meltdowns...I remember some angst in 2007 too regarding the Atlantic. It's definitely early...I'm not saying this month will stink....I'm just saying some people have visions of 2007 and 2008 working out...but it doesn't always work like that. FWIW, I;m still intrigued about this month and the pattern down the road. Yes...not every analog pattern produced. This one still easily could too...but about 25-30% of the analog patterns left us relatively snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 An inch or two of snow and glaze is pretty wintry...guess its just how you define it. I'm not impatient this early in the season...not every event has to be 6" of snow for me to enjoy it. that's certainly a good start. thought last night was going to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 An inch or two of snow and glaze is pretty wintry...guess its just how you define it. I'm not impatient this early in the season...not every event has to be 6" of snow for me to enjoy it.you know me I'll take any snow I can get. I don't see any guidance giving anyone an inch or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 An inch or two of snow and glaze is pretty wintry...guess its just how you define it. I'm not impatient this early in the season...not every event has to be 6" of snow for me to enjoy it. The 12z GFS actually isn't too bad for QPF down this way (south of the Pike) but the problem is, it occurs during the day and the thermal profiles seem to support more liquid than frozen precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Big 4 ....first 6 days of December: BOS: 0.58 BDL: 0.61 PVD: 1.10 ORH: 0.63 Post from facts, not frustration. What? I'm talking about Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Kevin, if you wouldn't presume snow cover 11/15-3/15 your expectations wouldn't create such frustration. Seriously stay the course. 1993 had a huge prolonged warm period in December before the hammer. Too bad we didn't have the internet to see the meltodwns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Trending towards a Philly south event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This one hit the crapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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