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Dec 9th Winter Threat

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

I think you're missing the point. We're arguing that the gradient has more to do with temps than precip. And so far it looks on track. The precip problems are more a result of poor timing than anything. If we have a stronger, more coherent wave tomorrow night/Monday it would surely be cold enough for snow. However that isn't the case and we're left with a strung out, unsaturated mess.

Yes the temp gradient is there, you guys were spot on.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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When we are on a roll we roll....when we flounder we seem to do that successively with systems. I dislike this pattern immensely for real snow and hope it changes soon. We need one of these thread the needle systems on the tail end of a complex to go off but it's so low probability only James will discuss

Yeah I have to agree with you on the pattern and for any real snow chances...heck, even for any big storm systems at all, although we did have that one rain storm.  

 

When dealing with patterns you can get excited before hand or not like it at all...going into this pattern I liked the potential chances but it just didn't pan out or hasn't panned out in those regards but the models have handled it quite well and have a solid handle through the week.  Once you've been established in a pattern regime though you definitely get a much more clear idea of how storm chances will play out.  

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

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Oh another year of insanity. I love this place and the personalities that inevitably emerge. Predictable as the tides.

 

So far it has not started. Wait, what is starting and when does it finish? What's the goal, what do I gain or lose? 

 

Lack of controlling the outcome, to me personally means I don't have a dog in the fight. Many here I respect and know, honored to call friends.

 

Suffice to say it's going to snow tomorrow night into Monday morning.

 

Now if this place could only refrain from personal attacks and get to the finer points we and this Forum would all be in a better place.

 

The fledgling weenies have an early beat-down. The season has yet begun.

 

I'm done.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Yeah I have to agree with you on the pattern and for any real snow chances...heck, even for any big storm systems at all, although we did have that one rain storm.

When dealing with patterns you can get excited before hand or not like it at all...going into this pattern I liked the potential chances but it just didn't pan out or hasn't panned out in those regards but the models have handled it quite well and have a solid handle through the week. Once you've been established in a pattern regime though you definitely get a much more clear idea of how storm chances will play out.

A couple of years with very early season snows moved everyone's timeframes up. We are really just heading into winter now and everyone's patience is shot.

Hopefully the 9th works out

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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A couple of years with very early season snows moved everyone's timeframes up. We are really just heading into winter now and everyone's patience is shot.

Hopefully the 9th works out

 

Late November/early December snows are anticipated up this way, though.  So far pretty meh with only 2.5" on my seasonal tally.  That said, I'm not complaining or canceling anything.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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A couple of years with very early season snows moved everyone's timeframes up. We are really just heading into winter now and everyone's patience is shot.

Hopefully the 9th works out

 

It's understandable for patience to be short.  Even though realistically not much occurs by this point but it's more of the fact that we are into December and people wait so long for that first real threat and for that first real storm.  It's just the excitement of waiting.  For example, that's why I get so excited for May...even though realistically we don't get much during the month of May, it's just the excitement knowing that you are so close, and even though it's unlikely, it's certainly in the cards to get a good event.  

 

Even though it is still quite early, just looking ahead at the models and such, when you don't see anything showing up or see something that gives you hope, you just worry...especially b/c if we're still talking like this in 10 days you would start to get nervous for the month of December.  It would at least be nice to head into January at least close to average, but obviously Jan/Feb can make up for things very quickly.  

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jamesnichols1989

jamesnichols1989

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12z NAM and GFS weren't that far off from producing good snows on the 10th frontal wave across SNE, especially eastern sections.  That northern stream disturbance needs to remain strong on the models and needs to phase up with the arctic jet disturbance to move up the eastern sea board correctly to give us the optimum chance at snowfall.  I would like other models to join in, but so far the Canadian just doesn't want to budge at all.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think we can go ahead change the title of this thread from "Dec 9th winter threat,"  ...to something more realistic like, "Dec 9th utter nuisance that quite comically is not worth 13 pages of blogging."

 

Ha!  j/k

 

In all seriousness, the trend continues to settle away from a bigger QPF, as being depicted by multiple guidance sources.   Even the typically juicy NAM (at intervals beyond 48 hours) has cut significantly off what it had for this event, this time yesterday.  The GFS at this point only brings one solid interval of .10 to .15" melt-equiv. across the area.  

 

We spoke about this earlier in this thread;  I don't see that much has changed.  There really are limited mechanics with this thing.  The primary cause for anything is just having a polar high retreating NE, at the same time the west Atlantic ridge is compressed against mid-west lowered heights; the result of that is a fire-hose blowing normal to the polar dome.  

 

So ..yeah, lift (isentropic) should take place.   I would side on the under with this though, because, although it is true that WAA events can sometimes sneakily overproduce, the whole structure probably suffers from the same issues as the one overnight, last night, in that it's just in and out of here too quickly.  

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

January is a month that we catch up rather quickly with KU events, although still rare enough, are more frequent. Our January 2005 KU as an example, Jan 6-8th 1996 KU event an example. I'm sure Will can help out with more instances of KUs in the month of January.

Going to be harder than past winters to prodce a KU, If the pacific continues to rule and the atlantic is crap.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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We need much more cooperation from the Atlantic.

That's not it necessarily. We need more potent systems. This one blew its cookies in the west and SW and it appears energy is limited when it nears our neighborhood. We know that poor Atlantics but good Pacifics have often produced great swfe snows but this one doesn't appear to be in the cards. Still very early though......and man it's going to be cold this week!

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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That's not it necessarily. We need more potent systems. This one blew its cookies in the west and SW and it appears energy is limited when it nears our neighborhood. We know that poor Atlantics but good Pacifics have often produced great swfe snows but this one doesn't appear to be in the cards. Still very early though......and man it's going to be cold this week!

 

We need something amplifying in our area, rather than shearing out as they have been. But that's what happens when the main trough axis is so far to the west.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Like I said the Euro was as bad as the GFS last week with that wave that missed...had a few runs that were way too far west/amped/wet even inside of 72 or so.  Not impressed with the normal dominance of the Euro this year.

Scott, if your remember last year when we had the fast flow like this it was the same deal. But for amplifying systems that re legit, gfs will almost always be awful. Cases in point 2/8/13 and 3/8/13.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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Ive seen a couple mets say the euro is kinda meh inside 72hrs.  

 

I think its better than it used to be inside of 72 hours but I tend to trust the GFS inside of 84 or 72 if it has a similar solution to its ensembles and the GEM agrees with it while the Euro shows something different.  The Euro's biggest decline the last several years has been in the 7-10 day range, Days 4-6 I still think it blows the GFS away but it seems it has had problems with trying to break down or change patterns Days 7-10 and that its bias of overdigging in the SW has actually worsened, for that reason it constantly shows cutters all over the place in this range, I've seen it show cutters here with a raging -NAO on occasion, it never used to do that prior to its 2008 or 2009 upgrade.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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We need something amplifying in our area, rather than shearing out as they have been. But that's what happens when the main trough axis is so far to the west.

 

It really hasn't helped that the northern stream and southern stream are just phasing so far west (allowing for that further west trough axis).  This is just keeping all the stronger energy out west.

 

There are definitely some signals though this will all be changing as more established ridging pushes into the west and that trough axis starts shifting eastward.  Models also develop a very nice jet streak rounding the base of the trough which should really help with amplification.  Obviously pretty far out there by the GFS (12z run) for the 17th timeframe actually looks like it could favor cyclogenesis right off the east coast.  

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