Dec 9th Winter Threat

[ADKweather27]

I don't agree.. 34-35 sure..who really cares

 

This mnonth may go down as virtually snowless

what happened to weeks and weeks of deep winter

[weatherwiz]

Yep winter is cancelled because an analfrontal event didn't work out. And the weenies were so good this year too.

 

Nobody cancelled winter...just maybe a little upset this pattern hasn't worked out thus far b/c it did hold some promise.  Nothing wrong with that...but I don't think anyone has thrown in the towel on winter

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yep winter is cancelled because an analfrontal event didn't work out. And the weenies were so good this year too.

mby is on a better pace than last year, already recorded three traces and an inch last night

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yep winter is cancelled because an analfrontal event didn't work out. And the weenies were so good this year too.

this gradient pattern that alot of you guys were hammering down hasnt panned out. And in general swfe events walk a fine line. No winter cancel here stop trolling.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

this gradient pattern that alot of you guys were hammering down hasnt panned out. And in general swfe events walk a fine line. No winter cancel here relax.

[weathafella]

In my 67 years, how often has there been snow otg 12/7? Maybe 25%?

[CoastalWx]

this gradient pattern that alot of you guys were hammering down hasnt panned out. And in general swfe events walk a fine line. No winter cancel here stop trolling.

Your reading comprehension FTL.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

With clippers we never worry about precip type and they always seem to overproduce. Thats all.

[weathafella]

With clippers we never worry about precip type and they always seem to overproduce. Thats all.

Especially the ones going though NNE.

[OceanStWx]

Your reading comprehension FTL.

 

Once again, you say gradient pattern and people think "snow!" I think the temp gradient has worked out fine so far. We just haven't timed the shortwaves to get a decent system yet. This is always the danger with using ensembles to predict individual storms.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Especially the ones going though NNE.

I havent lived in sne long enough like you guys but ive always followed sne weather, had some kind of fetish for it i guess lol. You guys always seemed to flourish with clippers.

[weatherwiz]

Once again, you say gradient pattern and people think "snow!" I think the temp gradient has worked out fine so far. We just haven't timed the shortwaves to get a decent system yet. This is always the danger with using ensembles to predict individual storms.

 

Dealing with timing can really suck.  I always feel like if you get into a little pattern of bad timing it can seem like that will be a reoccurring theme for some period (vice versa as well).  Not sure if any data would back that up but it's more of a feeling.  

[ORH_wxman]

this gradient pattern that alot of you guys were hammering down hasnt panned out. And in general swfe events walk a fine line. No winter cancel here stop trolling.

 

 

What in the heck are you talking about?

 

 

You don't get much more of a gradient setup than what it shown over the next week to 10 days.

 

 

12 hours:

 

 

 

 

36 hours:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

72 hours:

 

 

 

 

 

 

96 hours:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

156 hours:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

240 hours:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What in the heck are you talking about?

You don't get much more of a gradient setup than what it shown over the next week to 10 days.

12 hours:

36 hours:

72 hours:

96 hours:

156 hours:

240 hours:

Yea so far it hasnt.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Go take your wife and kid out for breakfast and un glue yourself from the keyboard.

 

 

Yea youre the boss...

hey...this is a good way to get yourself booted off the board. 

 

give it a rest. 

[OceanStWx]

Dealing with timing can really suck.  I always feel like if you get into a little pattern of bad timing it can seem like that will be a reoccurring theme for some period (vice versa as well).  Not sure if any data would back that up but it's more of a feeling.  

 

Well timing issues in modeling usually arise from fast flow, and fast flow is hard to nature to time just right too. So in that respect you're right.

[weatherwiz]

Yea so far it hasnt.

 

I don't think you have a sound understanding of what a gradient pattern is or what it's referencing.  

 

A gradient pattern is reflected more on temperatures...those maps posted are clear textbook examples of what a gradient pattern is.  Sometimes they produce via snowfall and sometimes they do not...similar patterns don't always produce similar results in terms of precipitation/snowfall as there are other factors that need to be considered.  People become excited over them, however, b/c of the history associated with them, although everyone does understand the caution that comes with them.

[ORH_wxman]

Yea so far it hasnt.

 

 

I don't get it...are you saying the model progs for this pattern are not going to verify?

 

All guidance agrees on this pattern, it is going to happen...right in that Dec 7-14 window we talked about. If you don't get a big snowstorm in your backyard, it has nothing to do with the pattern not verifying.

[moneypitmike]

mby is on a better pace than last year, already recorded three traces and an inch last night

 

Are you still heading to Savoy?

 

drip, drip, drip.

 

32.5/25

[weatherwiz]

Well timing issues in modeling usually arise from fast flow, and fast flow is hard to nature to time just right too. So in that respect you're right.

 

Models have a notorious time handling fast flow type patterns and we have seen this be an issue even recently.  Models have been too slow with the passage of some of the cold fronts which have gone through.  

 

Fast flows also suck b/c while they drive cold fronts through faster, you usually see a more of a disconnect between the CAA aloft (from like 700-925mb) like we saw with the passage of yesterday's front.  When the flow aloft is a bit slower, the forward progression of the front slows and the cold air moving in stays closer to the front.  When dealing with the warm season faster zonal flows will typically lead to the mid-level fronts moving through faster than the sfc front which is a major convection/severe killer.    

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I don't get it...are you saying the model progs for this pattern are not going to verify?

All guidance agrees on this pattern, it is going to happen...right in that Dec 7-14 window we talked about. If you don't get a big snowstorm in your backyard, it has nothing to do with the pattern not verifying.

Gradient patterns are dicey. But its not just my backyard. Last night stunk everywhere, mondays looks like a clunker. Then it looks cold and dry to next weekend.

[weatherwiz]

Gradient patterns are dicey. But its not just my backyard. Last night stunk everywhere, mondays looks like a clunker. Then it looks cold and dry to next weekend.

 

They aren't always going to produce loads of snow just like a Jan 2010 pattern isn't always to give a historic outcome

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I don't get it...are you saying the model progs for this pattern are not going to verify?

All guidance agrees on this pattern, it is going to happen...right in that Dec 7-14 window we talked about. If you don't get a big snowstorm in your backyard, it has nothing to do with the pattern not verifying.

And i respect you sir, so im not arguing against your points. I know i maybe jumping the gun. There is still time i know.

[OceanStWx]

I don't get it...are you saying the model progs for this pattern are not going to verify?

 

All guidance agrees on this pattern, it is going to happen...right in that Dec 7-14 window we talked about. If you don't get a big snowstorm in your backyard, it has nothing to do with the pattern not verifying.

 

So far yesterday there was no gradient that I can see. Well into the 70s in VA and 30s NE PA.

 

[moneypitmike]

GFS is awe-inspiring for tomorrow night and Monday.

[CoastalWx]

Gradient patterns are dicey. But its not just my backyard. Last night stunk everywhere, mondays looks like a clunker. Then it looks cold and dry to next weekend.

We've said multiple times that term

Is used to describe the pattern. It is not being used to describe the snowfall in SNE. That is a function of where the gradient is. Nuances like H5 anomaly setup and s/w tracks and distribution cannot be determined more than a week out.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

They aren't always going to produce loads of snow just like a Jan 2010 pattern isn't always to give a historic outcome

And it doesnt have to produce big snows either. Just interesting mixed events will work too.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Dealing with timing can really suck. I always feel like if you get into a little pattern of bad timing it can seem like that will be a reoccurring theme for some period (vice versa as well). Not sure if any data would back that up but it's more of a feeling.

When we are on a roll we roll....when we flounder we seem to do that successively with systems. I dislike this pattern immensely for real snow and hope it changes soon. We need one of these thread the needle systems on the tail end of a complex to go off but it's so low probability only James will discuss

[Tropopause_Fold]

anyway...everything is pretty much on track. 

[OceanStWx]

Gradient patterns are dicey. But its not just my backyard. Last night stunk everywhere, mondays looks like a clunker. Then it looks cold and dry to next weekend.

 

I think you're missing the point. We're arguing that the gradient has more to do with temps than precip. And so far it looks on track. The precip problems are more a result of poor timing than anything. If we have a stronger, more coherent wave tomorrow night/Monday it would surely be cold enough for snow. However that isn't the case and we're left with a strung out, unsaturated mess.