Dec 9th Winter Threat

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is meh as well, I'll be happy too see flakes...... Nevermind a coating

[OceanStWx]

These freakin' weenie maps are really hurting the met reputation and they of course know the maps are way overdone. But, money talks and they get play from those maps.

 

It would probably be better off labeled as "snowfall potential" or something, as in this is what would fall if everything (and I mean everything) broke perfectly.

[weatherwiz]

This is pure garbage incoming. It's slightly better for SNE (this is CON), but not great. You want to see a lot more saturation than that between -12 and -18C if you have any hope at verifying that SN that Bufkit thinks will be falling. Maybe if you're lucky it would be snizzle instead of FZDZ.

 

12-7-2013 8-47-58 AM.png

 

The Euro does show some decent vertical velocities in and around southern NH...to bad it is a bit on the drier side though in the mid levels.  Just moisten that up a bit and would be few nice periods of +SN

[powderfreak]

It would probably be better off labeled as "snowfall potential" or something, as in this is what would fall if everything (and I mean everything) broke perfectly.

 

Not a bad idea...  like "This is the absolute ceiling for snowfall amounts"

[OceanStWx]

The Euro does show some decent vertical velocities in and around southern NH...to bad it is a bit on the drier side though in the mid levels.  Just moisten that up a bit and would be few nice periods of +SN

 

The Euro definitely is the most bullish at this point, over a half inch QPF up here. Looking at the soundings though I prefer the NAM/GFS/CMC look of a more disjointed system.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not a bad idea...  like "This is the absolute ceiling for snowfall amounts"

I'm not a fan of modeled snow maps. Gloss over.

[weatherwiz]

The Euro definitely is the most bullish at this point, over a half inch QPF up here. Looking at the soundings though I prefer the NAM/GFS/CMC look of a more disjointed system.

 

I agree that a more disjointed system is the more likely scenario at this point and this has been more of a consistent theme the past few days or so.  

 

The NAM/Euro do insist of a weak secondary low development just off the NJ coast and both runs do slightly deepen the low as it tracks NW...and the Euro to the point to where by the time it gets into the Gulf of ME, it has more moisture wrapping around the sfc low and into your area.  

 

The GFS does seem to briefly develop a secondary low but it never really materializes and the GFS remains quite disjointed with the system and is much more broad with the primary circulation.  

 

Anyways, I think the column is going to have major trouble becoming completely saturated given how dry it will be in the wake of the high pressure sliding overhead and the moisture advection isn't anything to write home about.  So even if QPF looks decent, much would be wasted.  

[weatherwiz]

I'm not a fan of modeled snow maps. Gloss over.

 

They are probably the most ridiculous model graphic out there.  

[CoastalWx]

The Euro definitely is the most bullish at this point, over a half inch QPF up here. Looking at the soundings though I prefer the NAM/GFS/CMC look of a more disjointed system.

 

Euro has juiced up things a bit too much lately. Sometimes when the GFS is the red flag for consecutive runs...take note. I mean it's still pretty good WAA, but it would probably be nice to have a better mid and upper level structure. We'll see...there are signs of a decent band preceding this moving into wrn areas and then maybe srn NH.

[weatherwiz]

Euro has juiced up things a bit too much lately. Sometimes when the GFS is the red flag for consecutive runs...take note. I mean it's still pretty good WAA, but it would probably be nice to have a better mid and upper level structure. We'll see...there are signs of a decent band preceding this moving into wrn areas and then maybe srn NH.

 

mid and upper levels aren't all that great looking but there may be some localized areas of some stronger lift (sort of like last night) which could really help some people out.  Really would depend on if that secondary wave would develop and 1) where and 2) how quickly it would begin to deepen to generate that stronger lift and also throw more QPF further north and eventually west of the track....but dry air could be a concern which can always be a "waking up to coal in your stocking" type moment

[OceanStWx]

Euro has juiced up things a bit too much lately. Sometimes when the GFS is the red flag for consecutive runs...take note. I mean it's still pretty good WAA, but it would probably be nice to have a better mid and upper level structure. We'll see...there are signs of a decent band preceding this moving into wrn areas and then maybe srn NH.

 

I'm still a little leery that models are underdoing the saturation aloft, but it still doesn't look as robust as your typical SWFE.

[Damage In Tolland]

This event is going to blow if you want snow. I think most of us see about an inch.. On the positive side the ice in the interior and cold temps will help lock in our 1 inch snowcover

[OceanStWx]

mid and upper levels aren't all that great looking but there may be some localized areas of some stronger lift (sort of like last night) which could really help some people out.  Really would depend on if that secondary wave would develop and 1) where and 2) how quickly it would begin to deepen to generate that stronger lift and also throw more QPF further north and eventually west of the track....but dry air could be a concern which can always be a "waking up to coal in your stocking" type moment

 

That secondary will really have to crank to produce much QPF to the NW of track. I think we're still doing most of the work on WAA. Just a little too weak and a little too fast to do much.

[CoastalWx]

I'm still a little leery that models are underdoing the saturation aloft, but it still doesn't look as robust as your typical SWFE.

 

It's missing the good S/W too. That certainly would help. Hopefully the WAA can offset that for you guys.

[OceanStWx]

This event is going to blow if you want snow. I think most of us see about an inch.. On the positive side the ice in the interior and cold temps will help lock in our 1 inch snowcover

 

A reasonable post, but I think we're talking more FZDZ and FZRA. A crusty inch of snow, but not a glacier locked in.

[CoastalWx]

A reasonable post, but I think we're talking more FZDZ and FZRA. A crusty inch of snow, but not a glacier locked in.

 

Which will turn into goo when the front moves through and temps warm to U30s.  He'll be lucky for an inch.

[Damage In Tolland]

A reasonable post, but I think we're talking more FZDZ and FZRA. A crusty inch of snow, but not a glacier locked in.

I guess an inch of snow is better than none..and I certainly don't mean to imply an icestorm..just maybe like .15 or so of zr on top of the snow/sleet ..I don't see anyone in New eng getting more than 2 inches out of this

[OceanStWx]

I guess an inch of snow is better than none..and I certainly don't mean to imply an icestorm..just maybe like .15 or so of zr on top of the snow/sleet ..I don't see anyone in New eng getting more than 2 inches out of this

 

It may be tough for some locations to even get 0.15" total liquid from this, let alone 0.15" ice.

[Damage In Tolland]

Which will turn into goo when the front moves through and temps warm to U30s.  He'll be lucky for an inch.

The interior stays below freezing.. As long as that secondary foms we won't sniff 32 until maybe when winds shift west but we've already been over that.

 

This is exactly how trouble starts. I post something and then someone immed. has to come in and troll it..or argue against it

[Tropopause_Fold]

at least this will be higher "impact" than last night. would think combo of cold surfaces and transition to non-flakeage will make things icy for a while...especially away from the coast (though probably even some of that out this way)

[weatherwiz]

That secondary will really have to crank to produce much QPF to the NW of track. I think we're still doing most of the work on WAA. Just a little too weak and a little too fast to do much.

 

WAA may certainly really help out areas of central and northern New England and at this point it's a rather cautious situation.  Looking at 700 RH fields, there actually does look like a decent thump of moisture advection, however, it could end up being rather brief as there is a decent swath of drier air that quickly advects in from the west.  

[weatherwiz]

at least this will be higher "impact" than last night. would think combo of cold surfaces and transition to non-flakeage will make things icy for a while...especially away from the coast (though probably even some of that out this way)

 

especially since this will be occurring on a Monday and not a Saturday so there will be more people traveling (work, school, etc)

[NorEastermass128]

at least this will be higher "impact" than last night. would think combo of cold surfaces and transition to non-flakeage will make things icy for a while...especially away from the coast (though probably even some of that out this way)

 

I'd sacrifice a crusty coating of snow/ice on a Monday morning, just so commuters don't have to deal with fender benders.  One affected commuter is too many for a very meh storm.

[CoastalWx]

The interior stays below freezing.. As long as that secondary foms we won't sniff 32 until maybe when winds shift west but we've already been over that.

This is exactly how trouble starts. I post something and then someone immed. has to come in and troll it..or argue against it

As I said, you'll be in the U30s post fropa. Calm

Down.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't agree.. 34-35 sure..who really cares

 

This mnonth may go down as virtually snowless

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So much for this gradient pattern. Swfe's are wack. Gimme clippers instead.

[NorEastermass128]

I don't agree.. 34-35 sure..who really cares

 

This mnonth may go down as virtually snowless

 

It's 12/7.  Plenty of chances coming as long as the cold is nearby/overhead.

[CoastalWx]

Yep winter is cancelled because an analfrontal event didn't work out. And the weenies were so good this year too.

[ORH_wxman]

Yep winter is cancelled because an analfrontal event didn't work out. And the weenies were so good this year too.

 

 

Well cancelling winter on Dec 7th is like 8 weeks earlier than last year when everyone cancelled it in late January.

[weatherwiz]

It's 12/7.  Plenty of chances coming as long as the cold is nearby/overhead.

 

It's great to have the cold nearby but that's a piece to the puzzle.  We need to establish a pattern which is more favorable and a pattern which is conducive to some stronger and more organized systems.  We've been having cold air nearby but we've had nothing to really keep it locked in place when a system approaches and lately when they do approach, we're dealing with WAA and isentropic lift scenarios...granted they can be decent but have really failed to thus far.  

 

Anyways it is still *early* but we go through the next 7-10 days without much than Dec could go down as a big dud.  December isn't everyhting as there is plenty of winter left, but you don't want to head into January well below average unless we are experiencing a Jan 2011 like pattern.