CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 00z NAM is a decent snow event for the Mid Atlantic (where it's not ice). Pretty meh here... maybe a 1-3 kinda deal with a light glaze of ZR on top in interior? Meh, but hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM actually has another frontal wave around Dec 10th right after our storm bringing 1-2" of snow here on the GFS. It gets cold after the frontal wave moves through, if there was better timing on the clipper and southern area of moisture we would be talking about a better chance at a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro was def too wet yesterday. This is becoming a messy mix inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Interesting to see the Tuesday wave trying to come back on the gfs tonight. Personally here in Stamford that is my best chance to get any accumulating snow in the next several days..The end of the nam looked like it would have been even better than the gfs too..I'll try to never extrapolate the 84hr nam again though lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 00z Canadian is close with several systems next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 6z NAM is showing some promising signs with regards to that secondary wave of low pressure along the front after the Dec 9th low moves out. There is southern stream energy and moisture that wraps around the backside of the western trough and moves through the flow into the region. Models are not sure how much energy spills into the trough so this needs to be watched for future references. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 6z NAM is showing some promising signs with regards to that secondary wave of low pressure along the front after the Dec 9th low moves out. There is southern stream energy and moisture that wraps around the backside of the western trough and moves through the flow into the region. Models are not sure how much energy spills into the trough so this needs to be watched for future references. The 00Z GFS had 9 of 12 ensemble members at 96 hours as far NW or further NW than the Op, of course the Euro and GEM were still pretty suppresed but seeing alot of ensemble support coupled with the NAM being very far NW at 84 hours on its 00Z run and the normally flat NOGAPS being less suppressed than the Euro/GEM definitely lead me to believe its not a complete fantasy and has some chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 00Z GFS had 9 of 12 ensemble members at 96 hours as far NW or further NW than the Op, of course the Euro and GEM were still pretty suppresed but seeing alot of ensemble support coupled with the NAM being very far NW at 84 hours on its 00Z run and the normally flat NOGAPS being less suppressed than the Euro/GEM definitely lead me to believe its not a complete fantasy and has some chance. Yeah but I would go light on the overall QPF output for now, until southern stream energy gets involved and if the clipper digs further southeast, then we have something on our hands, but for now its still a wait and see process as it always is with the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM could end up too far west and actually end up too warm for snow on the Dec 10th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 6z NAM is a full on snowstorm in the making for SNE, this time the wave strengthens heading northeastward instead of the latest waves which weakened as flow sheared the wave axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 6z NAM is a full on snowstorm in the making for SNE, this time the wave strengthens heading northeastward instead of the latest waves which weakened as flow sheared the wave axis. Its very possible the system tomorrow not having nearly the amped surface low development it once was projected to have is opening the door for this next one to happen because the trof axis/thermal gradient is not getting pushed as far east as it otherwise would have if Sunday/Monday's event had been stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Its very possible the system tomorrow not having nearly the amped surface low development it once was projected to have is opening the door for this next one to happen because the trof axis/thermal gradient is not getting pushed as far east as it otherwise would have if Sunday/Monday's event had been stronger. That is extremely possible. Also I think the clipper amplifies the flow allowing the frontal wave to strengthen heading northeastward. DO you think that's a snowstorm per on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The latest long term discussion in the AFD for Taunton NWS mentions possibility of second wave after the DEC 9th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS is lousy with the frontal wave for Tuesday 18z. Not to 84 hours yet, but at 72 hours its lousy, southern stream energy all strung out ahead of the clipper shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Might not be that much of a difference between getting a good amount of snow to getting nothing at all from the secondary wave of low pressure. GFS puts a damper to that one, however the 00z GFS ensemble members shows mostly hits for the secondary wave of low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 James...go to bed. The NAM sucks and so do these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 James...go to bed. The NAM sucks and so do these systems. As long as we can nickle and dime ourselves to some sustained snowcover, I will be temporarily satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 James...go to bed. The NAM sucks and so do these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 As long as we can nickle and dime ourselves to some sustained snowcover, I will be temporarily satisfied.More often than not, that is what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 James...go to bed. The NAM sucks and so do these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is pure garbage incoming. It's slightly better for SNE (this is CON), but not great. You want to see a lot more saturation than that between -12 and -18C if you have any hope at verifying that SN that Bufkit thinks will be falling. Maybe if you're lucky it would be snizzle instead of FZDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This is pure garbage incoming. It's slightly better for SNE (this is CON), but not great. You want to see a lot more saturation than that between -12 and -18C if you have any hope at verifying that SN that Bufkit thinks will be falling. Maybe if you're lucky it would be snizzle instead of FZDZ. 12-7-2013 8-47-58 AM.png Seeder feeder though from saturated layer above SGZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Seeder feeder though from saturated layer above SGZ? That's about our only hope at this point. Models are awfully healthy on QPF, given that look aloft. It must have pained Ekster last night to keep snow totals 3" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 SREF means for IZG are 0.42" QPF and only 1.5" snow. Not the ratios you're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I am close to writing off this threat...oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm really not sure what goes into that WeatherBell ECMWF snowfall algorithm because it is chucking some weenie totals in this event. The NAM and GFS are a reasonable widespread 2-3", maybe some 4" in and around the mountains of NH. The Euro is widespread 4-5" with 6+ knocking on the door of NW CT. I'm not buying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'm really not sure what goes into that WeatherBell ECMWF snowfall algorithm because it is chucking some weenie totals in this event. The NAM and GFS are a reasonable widespread 2-3", maybe some 4" in and around the mountains of NH. The Euro is widespread 4-5" with 6+ knocking on the door of NW CT. I'm not buying that. These freakin' weenie maps are really hurting the met reputation and they of course know the maps are way overdone. But, money talks and they get play from those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 it's like they made the algorithm count anything under +2C as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This seems like 1-2 inches if we're lucky and then some ice.. .I'm a little concerned about things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.