Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The bigger event is tonight. Monday is over . Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 How much ice? Prob a quarter inch for interior hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Prob a quarter inch for interior hills. Would something like that result in a freezing rain advisory? Is it just for the hills or I would have ice issues in my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Man this is going to be a tough one to swallow. I think if the euro comes in dry we are toast. Relegated to hoping for a coating too an inch tonight. We've had some chances, they just fizzle out when we get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Would something like that result in a freezing rain advisory? Is it just for the hills or I would have ice issues in my area? I think anyone away from the immediate coast owuld get icing for a time but the hills would def see the most prolonged icing (possible never flipping over to plain rain at all) ZR advisory is issued for any amount of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Too soon to punt this. WAA can create some prolific and underforecasted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's 72 hrs out...I'd probably wait on it for a day or so. I mean you are talking C-2" vs 2-4"...it's not like miracles need to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Man this is going to be a tough one to swallow. I think if the euro comes in dry we are toast. Relegated to hoping for a coating too an inch tonight. We've had some chances, they just fizzle out when we get close. TAN was almost never in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 TAN was almost never in this. We weren't in it for an inch or two? That's really all I thought was reasonable.... But that even looks iffy. Will enjoy the cold next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 lol and the panic set in. Yesterday - Looks like a decent snow event. Today - Maybe some can salvage a few ice pellets. Tomorrow - Looks like all is lost. On to next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 We weren't in it for an inch or two? That's really all I thought was reasonable.... But that even looks iffy. Will enjoy the cold next week Well if you were hoping for an inch or two I guess...but I'm referring to the overall look of this. It was always low confidence there imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This sounds like a weenie comment, but in my mind...the NAM depiction for Monday makes a little more sense to me. I wouldn't be shocked if the GFS and Euro improve the depiction at 12z. Typically - as you know -- the NAM has a NW bias, particularly over 48 hours out in time. It's also usually the juiciest, too. However, I was mentioning in the other thread the persistent nature of the west/SW Atlantic ridging, and that may argue a nod in favor of the NAM; but it wouldn't atone for the wetness of the run. (It's also hard for me to imagine a scenario where the Euro kisses the NAM's butt) I'm not sure what to make of that... The GFS is yet in with another cycle that takes a few pennies more worth of wealth out of the appeal account on this thing. Seems if the trend were to go to its extent, ... nothing would happen at all. At this point, if the NAM were correct about tonight and the GFS for Monday, tonight becomes of the main player of these 4 days. In the general overview we still have this big polar high coming in on the heals of tonight's wave so ... as that retreats NE, it will impose a bit of an isentropic wall for those strong mid level winds to climb over... It seems SOMEthing should evolve of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Typically - as you know -- the NAM has a NW bias, particularly over 48 hours out in time. It's also usually the juiciest, too. However, I was mentioning in the other thread the persistent nature of the west/SW Atlantic ridging, and that may argue a nod in favor of the NAM; but it wouldn't atone for the wetness of the run. (It's also hard for me to imagine a scenario where the Euro kisses the NAM's butt) I'm not sure what to make of that... The GFS is yet in with another cycle that takes a few pennies more worth of wealth out of the appeal account on this thing. Seems if the trend were to go to its extent, ... nothing would happen at all. At this point, if the NAM were correct about tonight and the GFS for Monday, tonight becomes of the main player of these 4 days. In the general overview we still have this big polar high coming in on the heals of tonight's wave so ... as that retreats NE, it will impose a bit of an isentropic wall for those strong mid level winds to climb over... It seems SOMEthing should evolve of that... I always thought that applied more to truly phased systems where that NW bias occurs with the NAM, we really don't have much of a surface or upper feature thats intense with this at 60 hours both models just show a weak surface feature of similar intensity off the VA coast yet the NAM has no problems breaking precipitation out up the coast while the GFS wants to do nothing, I said in the Philly thread last night even if the models still show nothing as late as tomorrow night I'm still probably going to forecast a 4-6 hour period of snow across NYC 02-08Z just based on past principle of these events alone...even if nothing accumulates it still screws most of my clients if snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I always thought that applied more to truly phased systems where that NW bias occurs with the NAM, we really don't have much of a surface or upper feature thats intense with this at 60 hours both models just show a weak surface feature of similar intensity off the VA coast yet the NAM has no problems breaking precipitation out up the coast while the GFS wants to do nothing, I said in the Philly thread last night even if the models still show nothing as late as tomorrow night I'm still probably going to forecast a 4-6 hour period of snow across NYC 02-08Z just based on past principle of these events alone...even if nothing accumulates it still screws most of my clients if snow falls. Yeah, that could certainly be the case re phasing ... I wasn't aware of any qualification on the matter. In fact, searching the web ...does anyone know where the model biases are actually updating? Kind of annoying, but it seems that NCEP is getting rather old. One would think there is better on-going monitors. Agreed, though, that this could be more of an isentropic lift event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro isn't quite as paltry as last night, but still not back to what it was previously. Prob like a 1-3" deal verbatim from south to north in SNE before pellets/ZR (and prob RA- coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The MA might actually do better than a chunk of SNE with the Monday system. It's much more organized down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The MA might actually do better than a chunk of SNE with the Monday system. It's much more organized down there. Yeah looks pretty meh but that will probably muck up the Monday AM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah looks pretty meh but that will probably muck up the Monday AM commute. Yep, I'll be in that cluster-F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The MA might actually do better than a chunk of SNE with the Monday system. It's much more organized down there. The biggest problem I'm seeing is that the snow growth zone is barely saturated, and it gets worse the further north you go. Like SNE may do better than NNE because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The biggest problem I'm seeing is that the snow growth zone is barely saturated, and it gets worse the further north you go. Like SNE may do better than NNE because of that. Soundings looked awful on BUFKIT. Maybe it trends a bit wetter on future guidance...still have some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's a 1-3 inch to ice deal..Folks need to stop wishing and move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Soundings looked awful on BUFKIT. Maybe it trends a bit wetter on future guidance...still have some time. Conceptually you would think that shot of WAA would be enough to saturate things. Still not looking all that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Conceptually you would think that shot of WAA would be enough to saturate things. Still not looking all that impressive. I'm starting to wonder if the models are perhaps because there is a surface low involved mistakenly viewing the high pressure area as a block rather than an enhancing mechanism for generating WAA precip. When you look at the precip generated even in the MA region it all looks to be a product of the surface low as if the models have nothing being generated courtesy of the overrunning whatsoever and then the signal is basically to scoot all that precip OTS from south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's a 1-3 inch to ice deal..Folks need to stop wishing and move along Did you recant what you told your daughters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Did you recant what you told your daughters?No with all the ice there won't be school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Did you recant what you told your daughters? Keep in mind, we're talking Connecticut here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's a 1-3 inch to ice deal..Folks need to stop wishing and move along If someone gets 3" of ice I will buy them half of a six pack of Keystone light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If someone gets 3" of ice I will buy them half of a six pack of Keystone light.Not to burst the bubble but he said 1-3". TO iceMmmmm Keystone Light. (Vomits) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Nam looks ok for here...cold enough for snow I think at 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 00z NAM is a decent snow event for the Mid Atlantic (where it's not ice). Pretty meh here... maybe a 1-3 kinda deal with a light glaze of ZR on top in interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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