Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I just realized something. 12-9-05, 12-9-09, 12-9-13... And soon it will be a conspiracy theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 And soon it will be a conspiracy theory. It's like December 9th runs for election and wants to appeal to 's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro is following the GFS's lead tonight...pretty paltry precip..though it is very cold. BOS prob doesn't change over until close to noontime on the Euro. But qpf is generally 0.2-ish through 18z Monday. So we'll have to see if maybe the GFS scores a rare coup or if it's a one run nuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Damn. Euro caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's just One Op run of the ECM. That's not caving. We have to see more and blend with other guidance. Also, GFS seems like it is having problems wrt WAA in the overall SWFE. Just my HO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's just One Op run of the ECM. That's not caving. We have to see more and blend with other guidance. Also, GFS seems like it is having problems wrt WAA in the overall SWFE. Just my HO. Tonight's impact guidance at hour 72 averaging all CIPS analogs....either the models are about to score big or they are very wrong because you generally do not see this type of discrepancy this close in to the event on past impacts on similar events vs. the incoming one..not much guidance tonight showed any chance of 2-5 inches of snow across CT or MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Tonight's impact guidance at hour 72 averaging all CIPS analogs....either the models are about to score big or they are very wrong because you generally do not see this type of discrepancy this close in to the event on past impacts on similar events vs. the incoming one..not much guidance tonight showed any chance of 2-5 inches of snow across CT or MA. If that's a mean 72-hr snowfall does the event tonight factor into these analogs at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You wonder if many folks see more snow tonight than with the Sunday night system now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You wonder if many folks see more snow tonight than with the Sunday night system now? Definitely could see that happening in the RT 2 corridor from ORH Hills to Berks if they are able to pull 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 ec ens mean is similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Definitely could see that happening in the RT 2 corridor from ORH Hills to Berks if they are able to pull 3-4". I mean alot of us inland tonight see 2-3 spot 4 ..and even BOS gets 1-2 tonight. As it looks now Monday is about an inch ..unless we see qpf increase again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I mean alot of us inland tonight see 2-3 spot 4 ..and even BOS gets 1-2 tonight. As it looks now Monday is about an inch ..unless we see qpf increase again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This sounds like a weenie comment, but in my mind...the NAM depiction for Monday makes a little more sense to me. I wouldn't be shocked if the GFS and Euro improve the depiction at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The other thing gaining more footing is the idea of s second wave on Tuesday. Some modeling actually gets more accumulating snows up to about the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This sounds like a weenie comment, but in my mind...the NAM depiction for Monday makes a little more sense to me. I wouldn't be shocked if the GFS and Euro improve the depiction at 12z. Luckily that wasn't your first post ever or you'd be 5ppd for taking a longer range NAM over GFS/ECM But yes it's hard to see that paltry QPF with the amount of iso lift that should be generated by the WAA. The dynamics are sooo far west though so maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The other thing gaining more footing is the idea of s second wave on Tuesday. Some modeling actually gets more accumulating snows up to about the Pike That's not happening James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That's not happening James. It's gaining some traction on some of the models..It's plausible..but not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It's gaining some traction on some of the models..It's plausible..but not likely I will be dumbfounded if snow makes it to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I will be dumbfounded if snow makes it to the pike. You'll be yelling Timber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You'll be yelling Timber Man another horrible song. What's with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Man another horrible song. What's with you. Nah..that is a good jam..It really grows on you. watch it a few more times..the guy looks like Right said Fred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I mean alot of us inland tonight see 2-3 spot 4 ..and even BOS gets 1-2 tonight. As it looks now Monday is about an inch ..unless we see qpf increase again Kev's "ANA" fantasies. We all love to hear about them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 This sounds like a weenie comment, but in my mind...the NAM depiction for Monday makes a little more sense to me. I wouldn't be shocked if the GFS and Euro improve the depiction at 12z. Without big PVA, the models will probably at least have some trouble depicting QPF that is almost all WAA drven. 2-4" is my call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Without big PVA, the models will probably at least have some trouble depicting QPF that is almost all WAA drven. 2-4" is my call right now. I mean maybe the lack of PVA and lousy upper level jet structure is hurting this, but there is a decent cold dome and LLJ moving north with good theta-e advection. I had the over/under at 3.5" yesterday here in Andover. Of course models were a bit juicier...but I'll stick to that for now. 2-4 seems good to me for a good part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think today's midday runs are pretty important. Will the euro continue to cave, or was it a 1 run hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS continues to look pretty putrid for snow. More of a quick C-1" and then an interior ice deal Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Qpf keeps cutting way back, This one is starting to slip away in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 We'll see what the rest of the guidance does...possible that euro was too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS continues to look pretty putrid for snow. More of a quick C-1" and then an interior ice deal Monday morning. How much ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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