ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 New thread for the SWFE/winter threat on Dec 9th. Quick rundown of model guidance shows decent agreement, though the 12z GGEM came in more strung out and weak...which gives longer period of snow (albeit light snow) and maybe a change to freezing drizzle (even close to the coast) during Monday afternoon. Right now, my best quess would be most of SNE sees 1-4" of snow on the front end (from south to north) with a period of sleet and freezing rain...prolonged for the interior regions, shorter duration the closer to the coast you are. However, we should remember that this event is still 5 days out and a lot can (and probably will) change. At least the consistency for the past 24-36 hours has been very good for this time range on guidance. So we have that going for confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z EC has the most classic SWFE track...right over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Interesting CMC string out system with the f/u wave. Leonesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Interesting CMC string out system with the f/u wave. Leonesque. The high res GGEM maps look more organized than the normal maps. Not saying one is right over the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 The Ukie is really strung out out too like the GGEM. We'll see what the Euro says in about 20-25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It will be interesting to say the least. Especially watching the mixing occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Strung out is good. Limits any warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Does this system have any similarities to 12/3/2007? I vaguely remember a similar snow to ip/zr to rain situation. Laid down about 3" IMBY, more north and then the cold just locked in the pack after that. (Along with the evening commute from hell storm on 12/13) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Should see some decent CAD in the upper part of the Valley. Snow getting locked in tight with a few hours freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Is it colder and therefore brings more snow to the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GGEM also has fantasy weak follow up wave that some has yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah that follow up wave is interesting, might get more snow out of that wave here on Cape Cod, MA than the main storm system itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Snowing everywhere at a decent clip before midnight Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro looks a shade east vs 00z but fairly similar. Like Jerry said, decent thump of snow Sunday night before a flip to rain by 9z Monday along the coast. Looks icy over the interior by h120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is a little colder/snowier on the front end. Probably advisory for everyone north of the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn...euro with it snowing hard pvd-tolland and points north 120 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Most of the meaningful qpf is over before even Boston rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GGEM also has fantasy weak follow up wave that some has yesterday. It's just the whole ana look to the thing... I hate that. I've seen so many a-modeled ana's that wound up phantoms underneath a raging virga boner, that now whenever I see that on the charts I'm rollin' eyes. Yeah yeah, sometimes they work out, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Classic setup for Ray's default 2-5" SWFE snowfall forecast in a changeover situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 pretty standard look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn...euro with it snowing hard pvd-tolland and points north 120 hours! Looks like it flips around 12z from Kev to metrowest. With that easterly flow BOS is liquid probably by 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Damn...euro with it snowing hard pvd-tolland and points north 120 hours! Looks like it flips around 12z from Kev to metrowest. With that easterly flow BOS is liquid probably by 9z. Tell that to 12/16/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'd rather be in w. framingham ma for this set up than so close to coast (i think). If the nao sucks what do we need to get any potent system not to cut west, a +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like it flips around 12z from Kev to metrowest. With that easterly flow BOS is liquid probably by 9z. There's zero chance BOS is liquid by 09z on the Euro...they aren't even liquid by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Tell that to 12/16/07. I hear ya on that. Probably a nice coastal boundary inside 128 somewhere, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'd rather be in w. framingham ma for this set up than so close to coast (i think). If the nao sucks what do we need to get any potent system not to cut west, a +PNA? Framingham will do ok per euro. 20 miles north better tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Classic setup for Ray's default 2-5" SWFE snowfall forecast in a changeover situation. lol, yeah these seem to follow the same pattern regardless... widespread 2-4" with isolated 5"/ (.5" QPF) topped with some ice or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Tell that to 12/16/07. I hear ya on that. Probably a nice coastal boundary inside 128 somewhere, though. System is not wound up allowing for colder solution it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 There's zero chance BOS is liquid by 09z on the Euro...they aren't even liquid by 12z. Defintely below freezing at h85, but with that easterly fetch in the lower levels it doesn't sit well with me. I think metrowest is solid in that set up through 12z...was more referring to BOS itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro looks good would be nice just to get some snow in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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