Brewers Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 A detailed look at the MKE GFS soundings does show an aprox. 300mb layer between -10 and -20C although most of the layer is closer to -10C which is pretty borderline for ice growth. I guess its something to keep an eye on over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Forecast is now mid 20s at best. So probably looking at 13-14:1 or so. Yeah I was looking at NAM which has slightly warmer lower levels. Winds off the lake should keep temperatures above 25 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Model consensus coming together for what seems to be an quite light but quite long duration snow event around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 wintery mix now in the point...ratios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 wintery mix now in the point...ratios! All snow out here. 18z NAM still gives along/north of 88 a few inches. Still like my 1.1" for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 All snow out here. 18z NAM still gives along/north of 88 a few inches. Still like my 1.1" for here. I like 1-3" for most of northern IL. Any mixing should be toward the tail end when the mid levels dry out but of course that will need to be watched in case it happens quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Point forecast is all snow still. 18z NAM snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 LOT still somewhat bullish-ish ... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL337 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013.DISCUSSION...334 PM CSTWHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...FAIRLY STOUT MID LEVEL FEATURE WILLEJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH.WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY...WARM ADVECTION WILLBEGIN TO KICK IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDCOVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF IT. ADVECTION SNOW SHOULDBEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMNSUFFICIENTLY SATURATES. DID INCREASE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITHTHE THINKING THAT GUIDANCE MIGHT BE UNDER DONE WITH THIS TOP DOWNSATURATION. ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY OBSERVE LIGHTSNOW AND GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OFI-88 SHOULD BEGIN TO OBSERVE BETTER ACCUMULATION. BEST FORCINGACROSS THE CWA DOES ARRIVE BY THE 00Z TIME FRAME SUNDAYNIGHT...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STILL RESIDING MORE ACROSS THENORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FROM THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME...MOST AREASSHOULD LIKELY OBSERVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW. HAVE MADELITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SNOWFALL TOTALS...ONLY INCREASINGSLIGHTLY. FEEL THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE MORETOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALSLOWERING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...AND AT AN INCH OR LESSACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL EARLY SUNDAYINTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD HELP TO PROVIDE ISOLATED HIGHERAMOUNTS...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE STILLINDICATING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LOST ACROSS EAST CENTRALILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA GOING INTO THE 6Z PERIOD SUNDAYNIGHT. THIS LOSS OF MOISTURE/CRYSTALS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN APERIOD OF EITHER LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW. WEAK LIFTWITH THIS NOW SHEARED OUT WAVE COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED LIFT INTOEARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH ANY ACCUMULATION BECOMING LESSLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hourly via LOT forecast has be down for .10 QPF and 1.7 inches of snow .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can anyone recall a previous SE wind lake enhancement event for WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM Kuchera maps actually have 6+ in the heavy band out west. Might be a little hot as the NAM qpf may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Point forecast is all snow still. 18z NAM snow amounts. Chicago just can't catch a break these past couple years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looks like a much better system for mid Michigan northward and all of Wisconsin.... SE Michigan will probably struggle to get an inch.APX Starting with a general 2-5" snow and will refine. I'm more interested in lake potential tue-thur! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can anyone recall a previous SE wind lake enhancement event for WI? I know there has been. Will look when I get home to my records. I think I've even picked up lake snow from a ESE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I know there has been. Will look when I get home to my records. I think I've even picked up lake snow from a ESE wind. pre GHD? APX Starting with a general 2-5" snow and will refine. I'm more interested in lake potential tue-thur! Looks like a pretty primed situation there for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can anyone recall a previous SE wind lake enhancement event for WI? It has to be really rare in early December because usually a SE wind with a storm system is indicative of a deep low that would likely mean mixed precip or rain. Thankfully the lake temps aren't that warm near shore this year either, a bit below average for typical early Decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It has to be really rare in early December because usually a SE wind with a storm system is indicative of a deep low that would likely mean mixed precip or rain. Thankfully the lake temps aren't that warm near shore this year either, a bit below average for typical early Decembers. Its pretty much rare any winter month. A SE wind is usually associated with WAA so we would need a pretty cold air mass to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 pre GHD? Looks like a pretty primed situation there for ya! I think that was ENE winds. It could have been earlier that winter though. It takes a cold air mass to produce it from roughly Milwaukee southward. Waukegan is the furthest south I've noticed LEhS from a wind that is slightly south of due east! MKX disco: A CONSENSUS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ON QPF YIELDS QPF TOTALS OF 0.15-0.20. DID NOT INCLUDE THE NAM WHICH IS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONGER DEEPENING AND HIGHER QPF. THE OMEGA IS BETTER PLACED WITHIN THE DENDRITE ZONE FROM YESTERDAY AND THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE AVERAGES ABOUT 200 MB DEEP WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE. WILL GO WITH SNOW RATIOS CLOSE TO 20 TO 1 GIVEN THE DEEP DENDRITE ZONE AND A 1000-500 MB THICKNESS AROUND 522 DM. THIS YIELDS 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 2-3 NEAR THE IL BORDER. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT NWD TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND QPF SO LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE IL BORDER IS REASONABLE. LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS THEN NEED TO BE ADDED IN FOR OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES GIVEN THE 1000-850 MB SELY FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 15-17C. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHARTS SUGGESTS ADDING AT LEAST 3 INCHES SO FORECASTING 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW IN SHEBOYGAN AND NRN OZAUKEE COUNTIES...WITH LOCALLY MORE ALWAYS POSSIBLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN LATER FORECASTS. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL ON MON WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETURNING AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S ON SUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 durrrr....yes, stupid goof there I think that was ENE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Its pretty much rare any winter month. A SE wind is usually associated with WAA so we would need a pretty cold air mass to begin with. Sure, but we had WAA snows just a week or two ago with temps in the 20s in late November (granted they were with SW winds). Probably only happened a couple of times, hopefully Geos can dig that up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looking at the opposite side of the lake. Muskegon can get LES/LEhS from SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Guess I'll keep riding my 1-2" call for here and the QC, but still leaning more towards the 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM wetter in Western Iowa through 42 All in all the rest of the run seemed fairly similar to 18Z after a quick once over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 NAM wetter in Western Iowa through 42 All in all the rest of the run seemed fairly similar to 18Z after a quick once over NAM jackpots SE Wisconsin Sunday evening with over 0.15"QPF in a six hour period. Of course, 95-99% chance it will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Maybe it is me but i think either A the track shifts or B 850s end up warmer. Seems odd that the surface would track that deep into the cold. Gut says the models are mishandling where it ejects into Texas or not showing enough warming ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Maybe it is me but i think either A the track shifts or B 850s end up warmer. Seems odd that the surface would track that deep into the cold. Gut says the models are mishandling where it ejects into Texas or not showing enough warming ahead of it. It seemed the track was always cutting up through the east side of Michigan earlier in the week...with some more influence from the gulf "LP" .... that seems to have gone away with time as the stalled front seems to be retrograding little bit by little bit more with each run ... obviously not the storm of the century here....but certainly an interesting little set up unfolding (at least for my non-met eyes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Maybe it is me but i think either A the track shifts or B 850s end up warmer. Seems odd that the surface would track that deep into the cold. Gut says the models are mishandling where it ejects into Texas or not showing enough warming ahead of it. Local RPM type model on our CBS affiliate showed some mixing from Racine/Kenosha southward on its last run. Local mets all saying 2-4" for the viewing area (SE Wisconsin). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Sure, but we had WAA snows just a week or two ago with temps in the 20s in late November (granted they were with SW winds). Probably only happened a couple of times, hopefully Geos can dig that up for us. I believe there was an event during the winter of 2000-2001, 2001-2002, or 2003-2004 the featured a ESE wind with LES from central Lake County on northward. I can remember a persistent -SN all day and getting about 3". My records we're not that detailed then and I can't differentiate between synoptic and LES. I do think it's possible to have LES in Wisc. given the right kind of air mass with a SE wind. Edit: 01/23/04 might be a candidate for this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I believe there was an event during the winter of 2000-2001 or 2001-2002 the featured a ESE wind with LES from central Lake County on northward. I can remember a persistent -SN all day and getting about 3". My records we're not that detailed then and I can't differentiate between synoptic and LES. I do think it's possible to have LES in Wisc. given the right kind of air mass with a SE wind. The 0z GFS is picking up on a light LES band very close to Milwaukee Sunday morning. Would be nice, might be off an easterly wind, I'd have to check the wind components. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 0z GFS is picking up on a light LES band very close to Milwaukee Sunday morning. Would be nice, might be off an easterly wind, I'd have to check the wind components. Maybe 01/23/04. Added it to my post after you replied. Interesting. 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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