gosaints Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 lol at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Areas north of Milwaukee near the lake may well see some decent lake enhancement along with the .15-.25QPF system snows. The GFS, GEM and LSX WRF have all been hinting at that, and some of the previous Euro runs as well. I know it's not likely to be a major storm, but probably worthy of an advisory in the highest QPF areas, and what does fall will stick around. Tough call on that with lake enhancement. Ofcourse the further north you are ahead of the system the better the odd's on that side of the lake. On this side all depends on how much moisture will be left after the system passes. Does not look optimal at this point ( everything IS there except moisture ) on this side atleast not till that clipper type system arrives mid week. Hard to say with this stuff. Was looking at wind direction and lake enhancement could form further south. Winds look more east than they do southeast during this event. Milwaukee still sticking to 3-6" area wide and actually the new snowfall map boosts totally around here from about 2.2" at RAC to this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Latest for NE IL, that I heard this morning is "up to 3".... so we shall see. Defining snowfall, as defined by a snow weenie.... "A slight snow shower" - 3" or less. "A bit of snow"- 3" to 6" "Some snow" - 6"-8" "Snow Showers" - 8"-12" "Small snow storm" - 12"-16" "Moderate snow storm" - 16"-20" "Winter paradise" - 20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Although not really expecting it to make that big of a difference...the wave should move ashore for better sampling possibly for the 00Z runs this evening (along with the reinforcing wave coming into a more favorable area for data gathering).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 With the DGZ at most 100mb and sfc temps near 30 degrees during the event, snow ratios will be around 10:1 if anything and since models are showing around 0.2" or less qpf, I cant foresee much more than 2" of snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 With the DGZ at most 100mb and sfc temps near 30 degrees during the event, snow ratios will be around 10:1 if anything and since models are showing around 0.2" or less qpf, I cant foresee much more than 2" of snow around here. I'm riding my 1.7" call for MKE and .7" for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 First call for MBY is 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Models continue to inch the best snow a bit northwest. A few days ago the GFS had the best snow band tracking over the southeast half of Iowa. Now it has moved some of the best snow all the way back nw into the area that just got good snow from the last storm(Sioux Falls to Minneapolis). Hopefully, we can still get two inches in CR. The first part of winter has been dominated by several nickel & dimers, with not even a tease by anything big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nice try alek, your call for me was 1.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nice try alek, your call for me was 1.3". honest mistake, whatever it's going to bust high anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM juicing things up....as per usual Teehee. Give or take a day, right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sorry Alek. Anyways I will stick with my initial 2-3" call. Probably will be around 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think a big problem we're facing here around the Great Lakes is the presence of dry air. The 12z GFS at 48 hours has a pseudo banana high type deal sitting right on top of us as the system moves in, which degrades the moisture as it moves north. I think some people aren't considering that a great deal of what's being shown could actually be virga. Also, there was some confusion before of where this storm is coming from. And the answer actually tells us why there's so little moisture associated with it. If you look at the same 48 hour frame of the GFS, you can clearly see that its origins are the southwest...not too indicative of a moisture-laden system. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_048_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Final call: Ord: 0.3 Mke: 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 DAB. Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2.5 inches- La Crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ill take the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2-3" call here. I think the ratios will be better than 10:1. 2-4" for MKE and 1-3" for ORD. Probably 3-5" is safe for Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 With the DGZ at most 100mb and sfc temps near 30 degrees during the event, snow ratios will be around 10:1 if anything and since models are showing around 0.2" or less qpf, I cant foresee much more than 2" of snow around here. Forecast is now mid 20s at best. So probably looking at 13-14:1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ill take the GEM. 2nded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2nded. Ill take the GEM. GEM looks like a mixed bag around here unless you're north of the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Although not really expecting it to make that big of a difference...the wave should move ashore for better sampling possibly for the 00Z runs this evening (along with the reinforcing wave coming into a more favorable area for data gathering).... This one seems to be giving the models problems thus far.... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1125 AM EST FRI DEC 06 2013 VALID DEC 06/1200 UTC THRU DEC 10/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS MICHIGAN MON ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z NAM/00Z UKMET ARE SLOWER TO PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD WHEN COMPARED TO THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS GUIDANCE; IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS NOT LARGE HERE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SPLIT, WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN SUPPORTING A SLOWER SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A QUICKER PACE. THERE IS A KICKER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE GUIDANCE IS INTERNALLY INCONSISTENT WITH THE BEHAVIOR OF KICKER SHORTWAVE RELATIVELY TO THE LEADING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES, MUDDYING THE WATERS TO SOME DEGREE. THE PREFERENCE HERE IS FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Probably over analysis on my part for such a meager overall event....but considering it's the first potential "system" to affect a decent chunk of the subforum that has yet to receive much...I don't mind doing the extra digging on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Even if the entire column stays below freezing around here, there is a lack of mid level moisture (especially pronounced on the NAM) that could make it tough to generate snowflakes, leading to more of a mixy scenario. QPF amounts look very light locally but doesn't take much ice to cause problems of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Even if the entire column stays below freezing around here, there is a lack of mid level moisture (especially pronounced on the NAM) that could make it tough to generate snowflakes, leading to more of a mixy scenario. QPF amounts look very light locally but doesn't take much ice to cause problems of course. IZZI at LOT also mentioned portions of LOT running into some possible freezing snizzle and drizzle as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 My IWX point forecast for Elkhart is calling for a mix and freezing drizzle. This system might be going more nw than initially thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro supports about 2, maybe 2-3" locally, so I'm definitely sticking with my call for now. I'm not going to complain about 2" of snow or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GEM looks like a mixed bag around here unless you're north of the 401. The HP across the north and West will help maintain the cold anomalies across the lower levels of the atmosphere and surface. This will help keep the precip mostly frozen for much of the region with CAD working in. My first and final call: DAB-1 inch. The LES around Wednesday-Thursday might be something noteworthy for those in the Lake Effect areas. A cold week gone to waste. Boring! Zzzz. Well atleast it gives me time to study considering my exams are next week , lol. And i wont be missing out on anything either, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 IZZI at LOT also mentioned portions of LOT running into some possible freezing snizzle and drizzle as well... Shows up really good on skew-t. Here are the NAM and GFS valid 00z Monday for LAF. Both are very dry in the mid levels with the NAM a little worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro supports about 2, maybe 2-3" locally, so I'm definitely sticking with my call for now. I'm not going to complain about 2" of snow or more. Looks like a much better system for mid Michigan northward and all of Wisconsin.... SE Michigan will probably struggle to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Shows up really good on skew-t. Here are the NAM and GFS valid 00z Monday for LAF. Both are very dry in the mid levels with the NAM a little worse. Dang @ NAM....thanks for extrapolating Hoosier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wow the 12Z NAM is looking good for quite a bit of the subforum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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