wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol, a couple runs jumped from .09 to .15 and everyone jumped on board Also, people are looking at their backyard, which I can't blame them for. Much of Wisconsin, Iowa and the SE half of Nebraska is looking at .15"+QPF, the axis has just shifted a tad NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Even the flow sucks, LES will all be in Ontario. whitefish pt could get clipped with a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Models coming in weaker, the writing is on the wall for another non event. Just yesterday you were tooting your horn for 1-3 subforum-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Just yesterday you were tooting your horn for 1-3 subforum-wide. Some places probably will end up in that range but since yesterday the models have trended in the wrong direction for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett Brown Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Green Bay NWS talking about lake enhancement Sun-Sun night: THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWPRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFTEXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARMADVECTION NOTED ON THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAINCONCERN IS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKESOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MBTEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO -14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURESARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TOMOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVYSNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTINGWHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAROUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...ANDWOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOWBAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THELAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COMETO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BEONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDSARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING ANDDRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTHROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Green Bay NWS talking about lake enhancement Sun-Sun night: I read that, if their presumption isn't too bullish, nearly the entire state could be covered in a rather deep snowpack with the trough dipping down next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 you serious clark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm hoping I can squeak out 2" from this event in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 you serious clark? That's just a real nice surprise Clark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's not the biggest shift in the world but the wave is a bit further south coming into the plains out of northern NM which causes the QPF shield to come south as well downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 EURO still ok for YYZ. Looks like about 0.2" of QPF. Some rogue lake streamers dropping dustings and coatings afterwards next week. Maybe there's a chance of at least quasi wintriness. Given the last few Decembers, 2" would be a major snowstorm in Toronto if this were to happen This storm has the shades of 2011-12 all over again. With very little precip on the NW side of the storm, its basically like a weak clipper starving for moisture. I wouldn't even consider it anything else. The shear tendency of the pattern is preventing it from digging and gaining energy. Next one! Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Given the last few Decembers, 2" would be a major snowstorm in Toronto if this were to happen This storm has the shades of 2011-12 all over again. With very little precip on the NW side of the storm, its basically like a weak clipper starving for moisture. I wouldn't even consider it anything else. The shear tendency of the pattern is preventing it from digging and gaining energy. Next one! Zzzzz Which storm was like this in 2011-12? I blocked most of that winter out of my memory with alcohol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Given the last few Decembers, 2" would be a major snowstorm in Toronto if this were to happen This storm has the shades of 2011-12 all over again. With very little precip on the NW side of the storm, its basically like a weak clipper starving for moisture. I wouldn't even consider it anything else. The shear tendency of the pattern is preventing it from digging and gaining energy. Next one! Zzzzz I barely squeaked out one inch of snow in December 2011, trust me it was bad. Luckily the rest of the winter was pretty close to normal for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Which storm was like this in 2011-12? I blocked most of that winter out of my memory with alcohol Lmaoo, your jokes haha. I tried that to, but i can still remember it. -_- what a horrible winter. And come to think of it, it was so dead boring that I cant remember any storms either, if there were any. But seeing this on the model runs does jog up some memories in my brain. That winter made 2009-10 look "good". Cold and Dry with LES after this storm, how fun. I barely squeaked out one inch of snow in December 2011, trust me it was bad. Luckily the rest of the winter was pretty close to normal for snowfall. Dont remind me. That winter was horrible. Atleast you were close to normal, i was way below normal every month. What a warm March that year was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Lmaoo, your jokes haha. I tried that to, but i can still remember it. -_- what a horrible winter. And come to think of it, it was so dead boring that I cant remember any storms either, if there were any. But seeing this on the model runs does jog up some memories in my brain. That winter made 2009-10 look "good". Cold and Dry with LES after this storm, how fun. Dont remind me. That winter was horrible. Atleast you were close to normal, i was way below normal every month. What a warm March that year was. Oh, my bad. I thought you were directly comparing the upcoming "threat" to a particular storm from that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Places like DBQ/CID/ALO all showing DGZ depths of >300mb for a time Sunday evening on the 18z GFS. Further east across north central IL, they are still fairly impressive around 150mb deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Move over torch. Move over stat-padding. Move over DAB. The new phrase now appears to be "shades of 2011-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z Euro gives general snow totals of 2-3 inches from I-80 north through 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Move over torch. Move over stat-padding. Move over DAB. The new phrase now appears to be "shades of 2011-12". I'm gonna make T-shirts. DVN's first stab calls for 2-4" northwest half, 1-2" southeast half of the cwa. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Move over torch. Move over stat-padding. Move over DAB. The new phrase now appears to be "shades of 2011-12". What about "Cheap Midnight High"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What about "Cheap Midnight High"? I had the worst one this morning/last night (though that is for another thread) but I'll sum it up: midnight high: 39F daytime high: 31F noon temp: 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sure hope the drying trend on the Euro stops. Yesterday it had our area getting around 0.20-0.25" of QPF. Last night's 00z cut it back to 0.15", and this morning's 12z only has around 0.10". GFS a bit wetter, but I don't like seeing the Euro trend backwards two runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 LOT not buying a completely dry system just yet... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF LESS THAN A HALFINCH MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GIBSON CITY TO RENSSELAERFRIDAY.ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLYMONDAY MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLEFRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 LOT not buying a completely dry system just yet... WGN's forecast (at least the one on my iPhone app) states the same thing. Looks like an early-December snow may be in the offing. I love those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM juicing things up....as per usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I think just on the dynamics alone 0.15" of QPF is a pretty reasonable assumption for most back deeper in the cold air with this... thus accumulations up to three inches seems reasonable NW of a MSN-DVN-MCI line basically. My concern is the negative albedo effect of all the snow being laid down to our South causes what's left of the dying mid level low to eject much further South or the weak surface low moves so far to the South we basically are left with much, much lower QPF. I guess we'll see what the runs show tonight and go from there. All in all there may only be one more crack at a decent system sometime out around the week of Christmas and that's probably all she wrote for most of us this month. I sure hope I'm wrong but I'm sensing a very dry Winter for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 DGZ highlighted near my location at 72 hours on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 A whopping 0.13" imby off the NAM. I'm not totally familiar with the terminology, but I believe this what you would classify as a DAB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Light snow at best for much of the region on the GFS. Maybe an inch to an inch and half but nothing more, lol. Overall its a bit cooler than previous runs but also drier. "Yawn"! Boring weather continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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