A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ok, thanks for weighing in, you think the Euro will cut back to 1/3-1/2 of what it has now. I have no idea what the Euro will do over the next half dozen runs but this will be a minor event IYBY...look at the 850 maps, crapp ULL, and sorry moisture transport. Nothing about this says 3-6". And lake enhancement will be a non-factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol gulf low Its not a true gulf low, but its pulling moisture from the gulf. Its just a weak disorganized system riding along the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett Brown Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sounds like a back yard throw down :-). I'm located in 53066 (Oconomowoc), and I'm pinning my hopes on the Euro .30" QPF and 17:1 ratios (I'm a bit further inland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Welcome Emmett to wacky, crazy American Wx. Just be warned that we wack weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emmett Brown Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Welcome Emmett to wacky, crazy American Wx. Just be warned that we wack weenies. Thanks! :-). I'll try and keep the weenie stuff in check... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 look at the 850 maps, crapp ULL, and sorry moisture transport The A-J rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallguy001 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sounds like a back yard throw down :-). I'm located in 53066 (Oconomowoc), and I'm pinning my hopes on the Euro .30" QPF and 17:1 ratios (I'm a bit further inland). 53066 here as well! Here's hoping for 3"-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Latest MKX disco on the snow situation. Still holding their ground. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISMEDIUM TO HIGH.GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR LATERSUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THEAREA. THEY BRING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREASUNDAY...WITH STRONG 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA THROUGH THE AREASUNDAY NIGHT. DECENT 700 MB TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS PASSES THROUGHTHE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS.GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR COLUMN LATER SUNDAYTHROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE DEEPDENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS ALSO SEEN...BEST AND DEEPEST ONSUNDAY NIGHT.WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TRENDING UPWARD SUNDAYAND DOWNWARD MONDAY MORNING. COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THISTIME SHOULD KEEP SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FROM THE 18 TO 1 TO THE 20TO 1 RANGE. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS IN THE 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHRANGE SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. STAYTUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. WILL CONTINUEMENTION SNOW LIKELIHOOD IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. COLDTEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCINGPUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The A-J rule. Enlighten... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Good morning all. Been a minute since I've been here. Hope everyone's been well. Who's ready for our first synoptic 1-3"-er? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The A-J rule. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nothing really changed on the 12z GFS, a bit more moisture if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS kind of sucks. Really cut back on QPF over eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS kind of sucks. Really cut back on QPF over eastern areas. Without snow cover I can't imagine it getting too cold in Toronto next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Without snow cover I can't imagine it getting too cold in Toronto next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Ratios should be close to 20:1 if not better in the area that has the really deep DGZ (parts of IA-WI). That is going to be the bailout in an event that doesn't have a lot of moisture. Farther south gets more questionable with lower ratios and I would think a widespread 1-3 with maybe some isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Maybe. Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS snowfall map - 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS snowfall map - 12z Is that 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 My daughter lives just outside Dayton in Kettering...do you guys think she's actually going to get THAT much snow? She is from Florida so naturally she is very excited and so are her children having never seen much in the way of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Is that 10:1? Yeah I am pretty sure that is. A bit low based on this and the temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah I am pretty sure that is. A bit low based on this and the temp profile. I honestly haven't been that impressed with the snow maps from there (from what I've seen). The graphics are pretty and all but it seems like it has issues with calculating amounts when ice is involved and then in cases like this where ratios will be higher. The Kuchera map is probably more realistic as it's not a straight 10:1 across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Models coming in weaker, the writing is on the wall for another non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sitting in a decent spot for this event it seems. Weak system but ratios could be pretty high around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Even the flow sucks, LES will all be in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 EURO still ok for YYZ. Looks like about 0.2" of QPF. Some rogue lake streamers dropping dustings and coatings afterwards next week. Maybe there's a chance of at least quasi wintriness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Models coming in weaker, the writing is on the wall for another non event. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Models coming in weaker, the writing is on the wall for another non event. They never were that strong, the idea seems to be holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 They never were that strong, the idea seems to be holding steady. lol, a couple runs jumped from .09 to .15 and everyone jumped on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 La crosse nws bullish- 3-5.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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