Jonger Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hoping this one produces! Lake effect potential should be excellent after the L passes too, but direction remains to be seen (W, NW, or NNW). Lets hope so.... As of now, looks like a dud for the lower peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 MKX's current graphic. 3-6" Looking like a legit shot at a grass covering snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Taking my usual wait and see attitude about this one. I'll start paying closer attention Friday... should have a bit better idea by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Taking my usual wait and see attitude about this one. I'll start paying closer attention Friday... should have a bit better idea by then. Anything over 4" will be a block buster as of late. Think the last 4"++ accumulating snow was in 2011. Not getting to excited for we are on the warm cold sector line. Bet we get the wet end of the stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 OPC going with 1004 LP tracking through Detroit-ish ATM....FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anything over 4" will be a block buster as of late. Think the last 4"++ accumulating snow was in 2011. Not getting to excited for we are on the warm cold sector line. Bet we get the wet end of the stick. Dec 26th 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Windsor was on the skinny side of the good accumulating stuff. But It was in the 4"+ area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Windsor was on the skinny side of the good accumulating stuff. But It was in the 4"+ area That map was as of 9pm that night, Places on the East side especially St.Clair picked up near or 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Check on EC had 15cm on that one..... Huh So much for my good memory. You think I would of remembered pushing that much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What looks funny to me regarding the Sunday-Monday event...is such a large, expansive light shield of snow. It seems I would either expect there to either 1.) be a much heavier area of qpf in that blob somewhere, or 2.) not be such a large blob or widespread but light qpf. Hope we all get snow ahead of this arctic blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 You'd think with this type of comma head and dry slot, there would be more cold sector precipitation than what the models are depicting now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Check on EC had 15cm on that one..... Huh So much for my good memory. You think I would of remembered pushing that much snow. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=4716&mlyRange=1940-01-01|2012-12-01&Year=2012&Month=12&Day=4 Windsors 15.6cm total translates to 6.1", DTW had 6.2", so very similar totals from Detroit to Windsor. If I recall per Powerball, the city of Detroit actually had 7"+ so you may have had more as well, not sure. You were probably so salted out from the constant nickel and dimes the 2nd half of winter last year, you forgot Windsors biggest snowstorm in 2011-12 was 3.8" on Feb 10/11. (They did have 4.6" on Jan 13/14 but that was more several shortwaves I believe). In 2010-11 Windsor had 8 snowstorms of 4"+! 10.0" - Dec 12/13 4.4" - Jan 11/12 11.9" - Feb 1/2 4.3" - Feb 5/6 11.4" - Feb 20/21 5.0" - Feb 24/25 (total snow in Feb 35.3"...DTW had 31.7") 4.3" - Mar 5/6 4.3" - Mar 10/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I had made a chart comparing Windsor with DTW a couple of winters back. My conclusion is that there's some serious slant sticking going on in Windsor. 1981-2010 annual average is 50.9", which is kind of nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I had made a chart comparing Windsor with DTW a couple of winters back. My conclusion is that there's some serious slant sticking going on in Windsor. 1981-2010 annual average is 50.9", which is kind of nuts. That does sound high. But the avg definitely did go up, and there was some serious lowballing at DTW in 2002-2006. I think they overdo it in slushy events if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That does sound high. But the avg definitely did go up, and there was some serious lowballing at DTW in 2002-2006. I think they overdo it in slushy events if I recall correctly. Yeah, you guys have had some legit fat years recently which should have nudged up the numbers compared to 1971-2000. But ole Windsor airport was racking up some hefty numbers even in the leaner 1990s. I think they've had 3 80"+ winters in the last 15 years, which is, pardon my French, complete bullsh*t. And here are some 1981-2010 numbers from other parts of Essex County: Amhertsburg....32.8" Harrow..............37.6" Kingsville.........34.0" Now, those places are south of Windsor, so it's not a completely fair comparison but 20-30 miles shouldn't yield 15"+ of difference without altitude or LES explanations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 0z GFS = status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 New 00z Euro took a step back in overall QPF. GFS did as well. The widespread 1-3" may be more like 1-2" with isolated higher amounts if trends persist. Would definitely qualify as a non-event most Decembers, but compared to the last few Decembers this almost equals GHD relatively speaking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Over the next year I plan on having my son do a at home project and start recording daily events and make a log. He is 11 now and loves the snow and weather. Hopefully this at home project will add to his thirst and propel him in the right direction and add to his love of weather. Back to the reason we are all here..... Looks to be nothing that impressive, perhaps an inch or two depending on the ratios. It might be a start !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 .7 final call too bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This might be the first gulf low to produce nothing but virga on the NW side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 lol gulf low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 0z EURO held serve for YYZ. Still looks like 2-3". Unfortunately, out of 240 hours, that's the highlight of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 EURO sticking around 0.30" from here to Milwaukee. With slightly better than 10:1 ratios, should be an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 EURO sticking around 0.30" from here to Milwaukee. With slightly better than 10:1 ratios, should be an advisory event. I think from ORD to APN should still get a decent event out of this. Maybe 2" to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 New 00z Euro took a step back in overall QPF. GFS did as well. The widespread 1-3" may be more like 1-2" with isolated higher amounts if trends persist. Would definitely qualify as a non-event most Decembers, but compared to the last few Decembers this almost equals GHD relatively speaking lol. Keep in mind the snow ratios will be decent, I'd say 2-3, maybe 4" for many as it stands right now with perhaps 15-17:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 unless you are way west, you won't be seeing 17:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 unless you are way west, you won't be seeing 17:1 ratios MKX somehow doesn't see it that way. They are either very weenie, which is likely the case (notice my 2-3" maybe 4" call vs their early 3-6" call) or they think with coolish temperatures, the deep DGZs and potential lake enhancement, those high ratios are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 MKX somehow doesn't see it that way. They are either very weenie, which is likely the case (notice my 2-3" maybe 4" call vs their early 3-6" call) or they think with coolish temperatures, the deep DGZs and potential lake enhancement, those high ratios are possible. 1.3" IYBY, final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 1.3" IYBY, final call Ok, thanks for weighing in, you think the Euro will cut back to 1/3-1/2 of what it has now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think ratios will still be fine...it will just depend on where the front stalls out...this wave/LP isn't really carving anything up...just riding the front. I'm not worried about any warm air being pulled in really. LOT may be a borderline area for higher ratios to the west and lower as you get towards northern Indiana...but time will tell on that as we have to see where the front ultimately stalls and retrogrades to. With the LP being so weak and a fairly stout cold air mass in place I think 17:1 down to 13:1 is plausible across a NW to SE gradient through LOT. More importantly, none of this totally matters at this point as there are placement and strength issues to sort out via the LP and front placement/orientation between now and then.... But, as modeled now, I give a solid nod to decent ratios even into LOT, or at least portions of LOT. (none of this takes into consideration any lake enhancement and what that could/would do to ratios) At this point, I admit that my 3 to 5 is prolly a tad too bullish for MBY .... 1 to 3 is prolly safer.... but I will stick with my 3 to 5 for now I suppose FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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