Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Some of the pessimism was inexplicable. The deep DGZ was well modeled and it was a clear signal for higher than average ratios given no worries about flake shattering. which is really getting annoying. Take the crap elsewhere or don't post to those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 which is really getting annoying. Take the crap elsewhere or don't post to those. Some pessimism should be expected sometimes though, especially when you get three crappy Euro runs in a row. I was definitely a bit pessimistic even after the juicy 00z runs from last night came in after such a crappy stretch of increasingly abysmal model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 which is really getting annoying. Take the crap elsewhere or don't post to those. Pessimism is fine with valid reasoning, just being a troll isn't a valid reason however, and that needs to end around here else this is going to be a very very long winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Some pessimism should be expected sometimes though, especially when you get three crappy Euro runs in a row. I was definitely a bit pessimistic even after the juicy 00z runs from last night came in after such a crappy stretch of increasingly abysmal model runs. Yeah your concerns came with valid reasoning though which is more than fine in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Storm total in Mt. Pleasant about 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 .6 storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 .6 storm total.Same here, overnight a round of FZDZ come through adding a higher moisture content to the snow which fell. In fact, there were some areas of ice accumulated on some sidewalks which were still a tad above freezing near the building foundations. Even had a hour or so of lake effect from St. Claire to add to the tally. All in all a great little system which led to two complete salts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Some of the pessimism was inexplicable. The deep DGZ was well modeled and it was a clear signal for higher than average ratios given no worries about flake shattering. Yeah, that usually irritates me when you KNOW the area in the heart of the snow will do ok and you still hear bust (especially when youre on the fringe ). The models suck, but in the shortrange they arent too bad. Once those early ratios started being reported, it was all systems go for northern IL and southern WI. Ratios completely different here. We still havent seen that grass-covering blanket of snow, but at least it looks like winter somewhat. And it is SLIPPERY. The snow yesterday afternoon was light and powdery and even a bit drifty, but last night the snow was more like rime, then we had light freezing rain from about 11pm-1am, which left a light icy crust on the snow, then more light snow overnight and a touch more freezing drizzle as well. It was like scraping sleet off the driveway this morning. I came in with 0.08" precip and 0.7" (I would estimate that probably 0.02, perhaps 0.03" of the liquid is freezing rain). DTW, ARB, and FNT all had 0.9". If we can get some snow Wed and then more this weekend, then today is a start. The 0.7" is my largest snowfall of the season so far, beating out 0.6" Nov 28th and 0.4" Nov 11th. At DTW, 0.9" is the largest as well, beating 0.5" on Nov 28th & 0.5" on Nov 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Same here, overnight a round of FZDZ come through adding a higher moisture content to the snow which fell. In fact, there were some areas of ice accumulated on some sidewalks which were still a tad above freezing near the building foundations. Even had a hour or so of lake effect from St. Claire to add to the tally. All in all a great little system which led to two complete salts. The roads were actually very hazardous outside the main roads. Though not an ice pellet fell, it was like driving on sleet. The streets were layered with sugary snow and freezing rain, so there was frozen slush in the turn lanes and salt salt salt on the main lanes (my black car should look wonderful later today lol). I even saw one parking lot have a guy plowing (he must really be anxious ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Managed about 1.5cm here or 0.6", seems pretty consistent with the Detroit/Windsor crew. Similar conditions as well with the freezing drizzle moving in post-snow. Still drizzling a bit now, hovering around freezing hoping temps can drop sooner rather than later so what little snow we have can stick around for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Couple inches at most here...just enough to cover everything and cause a mess on teh roads. Sunshine now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 MKX prelim. totals. Hit the nail on the head with the other observer in town. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lot&product=pns&issuedby=LOT&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Little slow going this morning, but not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Local talk radio is ranting on about how they preempted the Packer game for a weather update and traffic during an important sequence of the game. While I understand the point and game watchers don't need a traffic update at that point, it wouldn't need to happen if people drove like they understood the gravity of the situation. Also, preempting other sports for weather or for preseason football is fair game, and football should not be immune to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not going to claim to be an expert...but I feel the models were missing the kicker wave coming south out of western Canada behind the lead wave/LP working it's way on shore in California .... That kicker was sampled somewhat during the 72 to 96 hour timeframe....but then went into a data void region (for the most part) from 72 through 24 (roughly)....Since the models weren't getting enough data on that kicker during that time frame it started to dry things out a bit (at certain levels) further south and actually also moved the LP track further north as well... Once that kicker moved into a better sample-able region...certain mid levels started moistening up again and track slowly shifted a little south again via the models. below is a forecast from the 24 forecast from the OPC for the Pac...it shows the second vort just barely coming out of SW Canada at 00Z 07DEC...this is what I feel was lost in the mix by the models for a 36 - 48 hour window or so... This kicker, IMO, helped to bring in just enough pac moisture to keep things from drying out too much over parts of SE Iowa, and a decent portion of N IL. Not to mention, aid in bringing precip to the surface a good 4 to 6 hours faster then forecasted over a large portion of the region (Iowa and the Northern 1/3 of IL specifically) One thing that I feel aided dendrite (at the onset of system precip) in NE IL specifically was residual moisture at lower levels from the onshore breeze sunday morning...Admittedly this is not something that I gave toooo much thought too...BUT this was brought up by LOT (Gino, I believe)...at one point or another in the 48 hours leading up to this system This is why I stuck to my guns with the 3 - 5 for LOT ... All FWIW of course lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Managed about 1.5cm here or 0.6", seems pretty consistent with the Detroit/Windsor crew. Similar conditions as well with the freezing drizzle moving in post-snow. Still drizzling a bit now, hovering around freezing hoping temps can drop sooner rather than later so what little snow we have can stick around for the week. Downtown Toronto (east side) here had roads completely covered to my surprise. I'd say we got 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I got another 3/4 inch of snow overnight from the final piece of energy so my storm total is a very nice 4.2 inches. My liquid total is 0.21", which makes the ratio a very fluffy 20 to 1. Because the snow is so airy the 4.2 inches has already settled down to about 3.5 inches. The forecast low temp this morning was 10, but the sky cleared and the temp dove to 2. The wind chill is about -15. It certainly felt much colder shoveling this morning vs last night. I'm still waiting for a big storm. I have not had more than 6 inches of snow from a storm since the 2011 groundhog day blizzard(10"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ended up with a healthy 2 and change...hi-res models did an excellent job picking up on the second batch that blossomed into the evening. It actually looked like a snowstorm for about an hour there. Bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not going to claim to be an expert...but I feel the models were missing the kicker wave coming south out of western Canada behind the lead wave/LP working it's way on shore in California .... That kicker was sampled somewhat during the 72 to 96 hour timeframe....but then went into a data void region (for the most part) from 72 through 24 (roughly)....Since the models weren't getting enough data on that kicker during that time frame it started to dry things out a bit (at certain levels) further south and actually also moved the LP track further north as well... Once that kicker moved into a better sample-able region...certain mid levels started moistening up again and track slowly shifted a little south again via the models. below is a forecast from the 24 forecast from the OPC for the Pac...it shows the second vort just barely coming out of SW Canada at 00Z 07DEC...this is what I feel was lost in the mix by the models for a 36 - 48 hour window or so... P_24hr500bw 1111.gif This kicker, IMO, helped to bring in just enough pac moisture to keep things from drying out too much over parts of SE Iowa, and a decent portion of N IL. Not to mention, aid in bringing precip to the surface a good 4 to 6 hours faster then forecasted over a large portion of the region (Iowa and the Northern 1/3 of IL specifically) One thing that I feel aided dendrite (at the onset of system precip) in NE IL specifically was residual moisture at lower levels from the onshore breeze sunday morning...Admittedly this is not something that I gave toooo much thought too...BUT this was brought up by LOT (Gino, I believe)...at one point or another in the 48 hours leading up to this system This is why I stuck to my guns with the 3 - 5 for LOT ... All FWIW of course lol Nice explanation sir. What was interesting was most areas including by me had the best rates and biggest dendrites at the end of the event, at least when models were showing drying in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nice explanation sir. What was interesting was most areas including by me had the best rates and biggest dendrites at the end of the event, at least when models were showing drying in the mid levels. Thanks! And yeah that was a bum rush of dendrites for you guys (saw the video....nice!) on the northern half there...which goes along with turning what should have been (via the models) pixie dust into at least decent dendrites down here by me. I wish we could bolster sampling in Western Canada...but much of it is rough terrain...unfortunately, when we get these polar or northern stream phasers, a chunk of the energy goes unsampled as it travels over that region. It would aid the forecasting for these winter storms from the rockies east all the way to the EC (in the CONUS) if there was a way to get more data there...oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Downtown Toronto (east side) here had roads completely covered to my surprise. I'd say we got 0.8" Just spoke with my mom. She swears 1 1/2 - 2 inches in central Etobicoke. I pressed her on that and she said it was enough you could shovel off the driveway. So even accounting for a high estimate, we probably came in with an inch, maybe a touch more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just spoke with my mom. She swears 1 1/2 - 2 inches in central Etobicoke. I pressed her on that and she said it was enough you could shovel off the driveway. So even accounting for a high estimate, we probably came in with an inch, maybe a touch more. You can always check trafficland.com. Although freeways arent the best for gauging snowfall lol. I looked at them, and the just north of etobicoke looked like probably an inch. South it was patchy but still, it was packed with ice too, so I dont blame her for shoveling, many did, and we had less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This has been our highest single snowfall of the season with about 1". Hoping we can catch some lake effect to bump us to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You can always check trafficland.com. Although freeways arent the best for gauging snowfall lol. I looked at them, and the just north of etobicoke looked like probably an inch. South it was patchy but still, it was packed with ice too, so I dont blame her for shoveling, many did, and we had less than an inch. Oh yeah, I'll shovel even less than 1/2 an inch because I love shoveling . But for the rest of my family, it'll at least have to be an inch before they even think about doing it. I have a tough time with those highway cams. The grass by the sides of the highways is usually very long so I find it difficult to gauge. I'll take your word for it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Just spoke with my mom. She swears 1 1/2 - 2 inches in central Etobicoke. I pressed her on that and she said it was enough you could shovel off the driveway. So even accounting for a high estimate, we probably came in with an inch, maybe a touch more. I had to shovel my driveway before I left in the morning as well. It was about 1.0" exactly. It didnt accumulate as extensively on grassy surfaces but it had no problem sticking on the pavement and such. Temperatures as I knew, did not go above 1.0C and have since fallen to slightly below freezing. Almost got late for my exam today, downtown was chaotic -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Oh yeah, I'll shovel even less than 1/2 an inch because I love shoveling . But for the rest of my family, it'll at least have to be an inch before they even think about doing it. I have a tough time with those highway cams. The grass by the sides of the highways is usually very long so I find it difficult to gauge. I'll take your word for it though. Yup grass on freeway webcams can make the snow seem less than it is. And especially a fine snowfall like this one. I was looking at the ones this morning in Detroit and its funny you look at one cam and it has the illusion of a dusting then another one right by it is all white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Biggest snow of the season for me too. 2.8" of snow at my place here in Saginaw. MI. Hope with this prolonged cold that is suppose to be staying that we get some much bigger totals than this. lol Some got much less than me so I won't complain. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Video link to one of the multi-car pileups. It speaks for itself. Almost enough for me to wish against snow if there are this many negligent drivers out there. http://www.wisn.com/news/south-east-wisconsin/waukesha/RAW-Video-captures-Hwy-41-45-pileup/-/10150328/23398364/-/volbqw/-/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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